Health

Avian Flu Could Reach U.S. Next Year

By Joseph B. Verrengia, Associated Press

posted: 25 October 2005 04:44 pm ET

Editor's Note: On Oct. 21 , LiveScience reported the possibility of the avian flu reaching the United States next year through bird migrations. Today's story provides broader perspective on the possibility and tells of other developments in what officials fear could be a global pandemic if the flu morphs into a variety that could be transmitted by humans.

DENVER (AP) -- As bird flu is spread continent-to-continent by wild birds, the seasonal migration that is normally one of nature's wonders is becoming something scary.

Global Avian Flu Update

Major developments Tuesday, Oct. 25 in the bird flu outbreak:

> Indonesia confirmed the country's fourth human death from bird flu -- the 62nd worldwide.

> Health ministers from 30 nations and the heads of the World Health Organization and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, meeting in Canada, urged developed countries to put aside some of their influenza drugs for less-developed ones.

> China reported its second outbreak in a week among fowl. An outbreak sickened 2,100 geese and killed about 500 of them in eastern Anhui province.

> Thailand said it will deploy 1.3 million health workers and volunteers across the country. Chickens showing symptoms of the virus will be killed; people with symptoms will be sent to health clinics.

> Sri Lanka temporarily banned poultry imports from countries affected by the bird flu.

> Vietnamese media said the country is considering a prohibition of live poultry in all urban areas, and Australia said it will give Vietnam $2.25 million to tackle bird flu.

> The European Parliament urged EU nations to urgently complete contingency plans for battling a possible flu pandemic, and some called for more coordinated action.

> European Union veterinary experts endorsed an EU-wide ban on the import of exotic birds and stricter rules on the movement of private pet birds. The EU commission still needs to adopt the measures.

> Croatian authorities said they shot down a sick swan in a nature park where six dead swans tested positive for bird flu last week. Samples will be tested.

> In Germany, officials said preliminary tests on wild geese found dead there were positive for bird flu. More tests will be done to see if it's the deadly H5N1 strain.

> Tests on a dead swan in Slovenia would be known by the end of the week; initial results were negative. In Hungary, six dead pigeons and a swan were tested.

> Russia's top veterinary officer warned that a new, more dangerous strain of bird flu could reach the country with migrating birds next spring. However, he cited a WHO forecast saying the threat to humans was low.

> Bulgaria banned imports of live fowl, poultry products and eggs from Macedonia and Croatia after birds died in both countries from various ailments.

> Poland earmarked nearly $100 million in case of an outbreak, in addition to $33 million already allocated for vaccinations, masks and protective clothing for health care workers.

> Spain banned open-air breeding of fowl near 18 marshes where migrating wild birds tend to gather. Zoos in the areas must also keep birds indoors and vaccinate others that need to stay outdoors. Open-air bird markets were banned.

> France told poultry farmers in 21 regions near wetlands to bring free-range birds indoors.

> Authorities in Romania said they will expand and speed testing of flocks. The H5N1 strain was confirmed earlier this month in two Romanian villages.

> The Dominican Republic said it has banned live bird imports from countries hit by the disease.

-- Associated Press

Could bird flu reach North America through migrating birds? Biologists in Alaska and Canada are keeping an eye out and say it's possible by next year.

Scientists from several agencies have been monitoring large flocks in the northern part of this continent since last summer, collecting both live birds and thousands of samples from bird droppings. The results of those tests are pending, but so far scientists have not found the virus that is spreading across Asia.

Of course, the bigger fear is that bird flu will mutate into a flu that is both contagious and deadly to people and which would quickly spread around the globe through international travel. The current bird flu is not easily spread to people.

But scientists are studying the virus' transmission among birds as well. In the United States, a consortium of government agencies is seeking $5 million (euro4.2 million) over the next three years to test birds along their migratory routes in the continental U.S. beginning next spring.

"The patterns (of the virus) in Asia right now would not suggest that it would come over to North America this fall,'' said Christopher Brand, chief of field and lab research for the U.S. Geological Survey's National Wildlife Health Center in Madison, Wisconsin.

Here's why: Bird flu was observed spreading from domestic poultry to wild birds in Asia last summer in northern breeding grounds in Siberia. Most of those birds now are migrating south -- along their distinctive routes called flyways -- to India and Bangladesh; others follow southwestern routes to the eastern Mediterranean and even Africa.

So far, bird flu has been detected in both wild and domestic birds as far east as the Danube Delta in Romania. The virus was reported in poultry in Turkey, Romania and Russia.

"There has been a shift in the susceptibility of wild fowl to H5N1,'' acknowledged David Nabarro, chief U.N. coordinator for avian and human influenza.

Brand says that if those birds maintain the virus over the winter, they would have the opportunity to bring it back to northern nesting grounds in Siberia next spring and summer.

While most Siberian flocks don't try to cross the Pacific to North America, some do cross the narrow Bering Strait to Alaska.

If those birds mingle with birds from Alaska, "there is the possibility the virus could be transmitted to waterfowl or shorebirds that make their way here next fall,'' Brand said.

While many severely infected birds usually die within a few days and are unable to fly very far, other hardier varieties could carry the disease.

Among the Arctic species under suspicion are hardier, long-distance fliers like eiders, gulls and geese. "It probably will be spread by one that isn't killed very easily by it,'' Brand said.

Many bird researchers say more dangerous transmission routes are the commercial poultry trade and the illegal trade in parrots and other rare birds for pets and collections. In both cases, birds are raised and transported in very cramped conditions.

The lone case of bird flu in Britain was a South American parrot that died while in quarantine with birds from Taiwan.

Conservationists argue that if migratory birds were the key factor in spreading the virus, outbreaks could also have been expected in the Philippines, Taiwan and Australia, which lie along regular migratory paths for Asian birds.

Much is still unknown about the H5N1 virus -- one of the most lethal of many bird flu varieties -- and how it spreads from domestic to wild birds and vice versa.

"If avian influenza has one predictable property, it is that it is not predictable,'' said Ohio State University biologist Richard Slemons. "It has made a fool of us more than once.''