'Super El Niño' could push global temperatures to unprecedented highs, forecasters say

Forecasters predict that a potentially supercharged El Niño is coming this summer, and it could push temperatures across the globe to unprecedented extremes.

Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center announced that there is a 62% chance of El Niño emerging between June and August. In other words, El Niño is more likely than not this year.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate pattern of atmospheric and sea temperature changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During El Niño, warmer waters gather east of the equatorial Pacific, forcing the jet stream south. This brings warmer and drier conditions to the northern U.S., while the Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S. have an increased risk of flooding.

The tropical Pacific Ocean is currently in the midst of La Niña, the cold phase of ENSO, when sea surface temperatures fall at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (0.5 degrees Celsius) below the long-term average. La Niña is expected to end in the coming weeks as the sea warms, according to the latest Climate Prediction Center announcement. El Niño will then occur if sea surface temperatures reach and remain at least 0.9 F above the long-term average.

If El Niño does emerge as anticipated, it could intensify into a "super El Niño," AccuWeather reported. A super El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures reach at least 3.6 F (2 C) above the long-term average.

"Intensity is uncertain but there is potential for a moderate to possibly strong El Niño this fall into winter," Paul Pastelok, a meteorologist and lead U.S. long-range forecaster at AccuWeather, said, per the weather website.

Accuweather's forecasters estimate that there's a 15% chance of a super El Niño developing by the end of the hurricane season in November. Meanwhile, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gives a 1-in-3 chance of a strong El Niño emerging between October and December but describes the potential strength as "very uncertain."

El Niño tends to strengthen hurricane activity over the central and eastern Pacific while suppressing hurricanes in the Atlantic, which typically leads to a less-active hurricane season overall.

The ENSO cycle triggers a warm El Niño and then a cold La Niña every two to seven years, on average. However, they aren't always on time. Equally, while each phase tends to last around nine to 12 months, their duration varies.

Earth was last in El Niño between May 2023 and March 2024. On that occasion, El Niño was close to being a super El Niño, but while sea surface temperatures breached the 3.6 F threshold, they didn't remain above the threshold for long enough to qualify. The last super El Niño occurred in 2015-2016.

The last El Niño contributed to record-breaking heat in 2023 and 2024, with 2024 currently the hottest year on record. If El Niño emerges in 2026, then the year will get warmer, but is unlikely to be as hot as 2024 — we started the year in La Niña, after all. Global temperatures in 2027, however, could be pushed to record-breaking heights, according to a post on the social media platform X by Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and energy systems analyst.

"The El Nino cometh," Hausfather wrote. "This would push up our estimate for 2026 global temperatures (though its still unlikely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year), and make 2027 very likely to be the warmest year on record given the historical lag b/w ENSO and surface temp."

It's important to remember that a variety of factors influence the weather and climate. The planet is already warming due to climate change and will continue to do so, regardless of what ENSO is doing.