Iran war could push global food insecurity to record levels, leaving 363 million people hungry

The war in Iran could push an additional 45 million people into acute hunger in just three months, causing record levels of global food insecurity, according to a new analysis from the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP).

The analysis found that if the conflict continues to the middle of the year and oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, an estimated 363 million people would be food insecure — 45 million higher than the current 318 million people.

The previous record was when the war in Ukraine began in 2022, which left the total number of people without enough food at 349 million.

"If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe," Carl Skau, WFP deputy executive director and chief operating officer, said in a statement. "Families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest. Without an adequately funded humanitarian response, it could spell catastrophe for millions already on the edge."

The U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been at a virtual standstill since March 2, preventing the trade of essential commodities such as oil, liquefied natural gas fertilizer. Rising prices put pressure on regions that rely on food and fuel imports, with countries in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa expected to be the most vulnerable.

The disruption of global fertilizers is a major concern, according to a separate U.N. statement. The timing comes as countries in sub-Saharan Africa are heading into planting season, Skau said, adding that around a quarter of the world's fertilizer comes through the Strait of Hormuz.

The WFP calculated the impact of the conflict on global hunger by calculating the number of people who cannot afford a diet that provides 2,100 calories per day. It then modeled how a sustained oil price shock — lasting to June — would affect global food prices. Analysts calculated the impact based on each country's dependence on imported food and energy and the number of people who would no longer be able to afford an energy-sufficient diet.

The region with the biggest increase in food insecurity, they found, was Asia, where an estimated 9.1 million people would be pushed into food insecurity — a rise of 24%.

Food insecurity resulting from the war would affect about 17.7 million people in eastern and southern Africa, 2.2 million in Latin America and the Caribbean, 5.2 million in the Middle East and North Africa, and 10.4 million in central Africa.

That would mean an additional 45 million people across the globe meet the definition for food insecurity, bringing the total to 363 million.

"This would take ⁠global hunger levels to an all-time record, and it's a terrible, terrible prospect," Skau said.