|
BEIJING (AP) - First, the water level in a pond inexplicably
plunged. Then, thousands of toads appeared on streets in a nearby
province. Finally, just hours before China's worst earthquake in three
decades, animals at a local zoo began acting strangely.
As bodies are pulled from the wreckage of Monday's quake,
Chinese online chat rooms and blogs are buzzing with a question: Why
didn't these natural signs alert the government that a disaster was
coming?
"If the seismological bureau were professional enough
they could have predicted the earthquake ten days earlier, when several
thousand cubic meters of water disappeared within an hour in Hubei, but
the bureau there dismissed it,'' one commentator wrote.
In fact, seismologists say, it is nearly impossible to predict when and where an earthquake will strike.
Several countries, including China, have sought to use changes
in nature _ mostly animal behavior _ as an early warning sign. But so
far, no reliable way has been found to use animals to predict
earthquakes, said Roger Musson, a seismologist with the British
Geological Survey.
But that has not stopped a torrent of online discussion. Even
the mainstream media has chimed in, with an article in Tuesday's China
Daily newspaper questioning why the government did not predict the
earthquake.
Online commentators say the first sign came about three weeks
ago, when large amounts of water suddenly disappeared from a pond in
Enshi city in Hubei province, around 350 miles east of the epicenter,
according to media reports.
Then, three days before the earthquake, thousands of toads
roamed the streets of Mianzhu, a hard-hit city where at least 2,000
people have been reported killed.
Mianzhu residents feared the toads were a sign of an
approaching natural disaster, but a local forestry bureau official said
it was normal, the Huaxi Metropolitan newspaper reported May 10, two
days before the earthquake.
The day of the earthquake, zebras were banging their heads
against a door at the zoo in Wuhan, more than 600 miles east of the
epicenter, according to the Wuhan Evening Paper.
Elephants swung their trunks wildly, almost hitting a staff
member. The 20 lions and tigers, which normally would be asleep at
midday, were walking around. Five minutes before the quake hit, dozens
of peacocks started screeching.
There are a few possible reasons for such behavior, said
Musson, the seismologist. The most likely is that the movement of
underground rocks before an earthquake generates an electrical signal
that some animals can perceive. Another theory holds that other animals
can sense weak shocks before an earthquake that are imperceptible to
humans.
Zhang Xiaodong, a researcher at the China Seismological
Bureau, said his agency has used natural activity to predict
earthquakes 20 times in the past 20 years, but that still represents a
small proportion of China's earthquakes.
"The problem now is this kind of relationship is still quite vague,'' he said.
In winter 1975, Chinese officials ordered the evacuation of the
city of Haicheng in northeastern Liaoning province the day before a 7.3
magnitude earthquake, based on reports of unusual animal behavior and
changes in ground water levels. Still, more than 2,000 people died.
Strange environmental phenomena including changes in well water levels,
were also reported a year later before a 7.6 magnitude earthquake in
Tangshan in northeastern China that killed 240,000, Musson said.
A team of Chinese seismologists was sent to the region but
didn't find any evidence to suggest an earthquake. As the seismologists
were going home, they stopped for the night in Tangshan and were killed
in the quake.
|
wanjek
rueh
secularhumanizinevoluter
About us
| Contact us
| Advertise
| Terms of service
| Privacy
| DMCA/Copyright