Western states face above-normal wildfire threats this summer. New maps reveal which areas are most at risk.

Amid drought and heat waves, April's national wildfire forecast shows that nearly the entire Western U.S. will face an above-normal risk of wildfires at some point in the next four months.

By Grist, Tik Root

published 9 April 2026

in News

A helicopter drops water over a raging wildfire. — New research from the National Interagency Coordination Center predicts where wildfires might occur in the western US.

(Image credit: PATRICK T. FALLON via Getty Images)

Every state in the West is expected to face an above-normal threat of wildfire this summer, according to the latest projections, released Wednesday by the National Interagency Coordination Center.

The government-run center publishes monthly reports predicting fire risk for the four months ahead, and the change since the March outlook is staggering. The agency denotes elevated risk in red on its maps, and the June forecast from March 2 showed a small swath of rouge in the Southwest. But, citing an ongoing snow drought, rapid snowmelt, and a recent unprecedented heat wave, the latest maps feature red spilling across the Southwest and into the Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and northern California.

The latest outlook reports that the snow melt-off in the Four Corners region came "not just several weeks or months earlier than normal, but also four to six weeks earlier than the previously recorded earliest melt-off dates." The recent heat wave also desiccated the West. Albuquerque, for example, recorded its earliest ever 90-degree reading on March 21, more than six weeks sooner than its previous earliest date, in 1947. The daily average of 73.1 degrees Las Vegas recorded in March would have broken the city's April record.

Image 1 of 2

A map of the continental US in white, with red areas showing increased fire concern. — (Image credit: National Interagency Coordination Center)

Projections for June wildland fire risk from the National Interagency Coordination Center released on March 2, 2026 (left image) and updated on April 1, 2026 (right image).

"It doesn't mean that all of these areas are going to burn," said Alastair Hayden, professor at Cornell University and a former division chief in the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services. Last year, for example, the Pacific Northwest saw an above-normal risk but was largely spared. Local patterns, such as wind and precipitation, play a major role, too. "But, when I look back at the forecast, fires usually tend to be in one of these locations."

The one notable spot on the latest maps that seems safe for now is Southern California, though that's because the fire season there doesn't usually start until later in the summer, or even into fall. There are also surprising splotches of red, like in Florida, which is experiencing a drought. But the West is by far the largest area of concern. "Keep an eye on July," said Hurteau. "The Fourth of July is the single highest ignition day of the year."

Tik Root covers climate solutions and economics at Grist. He started his career as a freelance journalist in Yemen, and has since covered everything from Al Qaeda to the Olympics for outlets such as National Geographic, The New York Times, and The Atlantic, among others. He previously worked at The Washington Post and Scripps News. Tik lives in Vermont with his wife and son.