China's emissions are flatlining — and may be falling — in critical turning point for biggest emitter, report says

Carbon dioxide emissions from China have flatlined or fallen for 21 months, meaning the world's biggest greenhouse gas emitter may have reached a global turning point sooner than expected.

China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions dropped by 1% in the last quarter of 2025 and likely by 0.3% over the whole year, keeping them just beneath the record highs reached in May 2024, according to a new analysis by the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) for Carbon Brief. The nearly two-year flatline or fall is the longest on record not driven by an economic slowdown in the country, which emits over a third of global CO2.

If the trend holds, China's emissions could reach an all-time peak before 2030 — the country's official target date — or even sooner, marking a key win in the global effort to curb fossil fuel use and slow global warming. Yet whether the drop is sustained or demand will drive a rebound in emissions before the officially targeted peak remains an open question.

"CO2 emissions fell year-on-year in almost all major sectors in 2025, including transport (3%), power (1.5%) and building materials (7%)," Lauri Myllyvirta, lead author of the analysis and co-founder of CREA, wrote on Bluesky. "The key exception was the chemicals industry, where emissions grew 12%."

"The numbers imply that China's carbon intensity — its fossil-fuel emissions per unit of GDP — fell by only 12% during 2020-25, short of the 18% target," Myllyvirta added. "China now needs to cut carbon intensity by around 23% over the next five years in order to meet its Paris [Agreement] commitments."

Driving the trend are China's development of renewable energy technologies and electrified transport, alongside dropping demand for cement and steel. China is the world's largest producer of both commodities, accounting for around 48% and 54% of the global production of cement and steel, respectively, with each contributing roughly 15% to the country's total greenhouse gas emissions.

The plateau also occurred despite a growth in China's power consumption by 520 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2025, according to the CREA analysis. That's because clean energy production grew to match power consumption, with solar power output increasing by 43%, wind by 14% and nuclear 8% year over year, offering roughly 530 TWh of new power. Energy storage capacity also grew by a record 75 gigawatts (GW), outpacing the 55 GW growth in demand.

But whether this plateau holds, temporarily rebounds or dips into permanent decline will hinge on decisions made by the Chinese government in its next five-year plan in March.

CREA's analysis notes some ambiguity in the CCP's planning. An explainer for the upcoming plan refers to a "plateau" in coal consumption from 2027, suggesting that absolute reductions in emissions may have to wait until after 2030.

"Moreover, allowing coal consumption in the power sector to grow beyond the peak of overall coal use and emissions implies slowing down China's clean-energy boom," the CREA report says. So far, the boom has continued to exceed official targets by a wide margin." Clean energy technologies drove more than a third of China's economic growth in 2025.

China is complementing its clean energy investments with ecological engineering projects that include planting trees around the Taklamakan Desert, which has turned one of the world's largest and driest deserts into a carbon sink.

Meanwhile, today (Feb. 12), the Trump administration is set to revoke the 2009 "endangerment finding," which established a legal mechanism to regulate U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. And on Wednesday (Feb. 11), Washington Coal Club gave Trump the "Undisputed Champion of Coal" award a day after he issued executive orders for the U.S. Department of Defense to buy coal-generated electricity.