A resurgence of COVID-19 next winter could hit the United States health care system even harder than the original outbreak has, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has warned.
If the virus has a second wave that coincides with the start of flu season — which is responsible for thousands of American deaths per year — then the nation's health care system will likely be even more overwhelmed and under-supplied than it has been during the current outbreak of coronavirus in the U.S., CDC Director Robert Redfield told The Washington Post on Tuesday (April 21).
"There's a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through," Redfield said. "We're going to have the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time."
The first wave of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has already killed nearly 46,000 people across the country since the first known U.S. case was reported in January. The outbreak has overwhelmed hospitals and exposed huge shortages of test kits and personal protective equipment like masks and gowns for health care workers.
Fortunately, Redfield said, the epidemic arrived toward the end of flu season, which usually peaks between December and February, and creates an annual strain on the U.S. health care system. According to official CDC estimates, the flu killed nearly 32,000 Americans in the 2018-2019 season and resulted in half a million hospitalizations. If flu season had peaked at the same time as the COVID-19 outbreak, "it could have been really, really, really, really difficult in terms of health [care] capacity," Redfield said.
That may well be the case this winter, he cautioned, if a second wave of coronavirus hits near the beginning of flu season.
Because a widely available coronavirus vaccine is likely still 12 to 18 months away, preventing a deadly double-outbreak of respiratory viruses from ravaging the country will depend on a combination of other actions. First, Redfield said, state and federal officials must continue to push for social distancing this summer as more businesses and public spaces reopen. Social distancing has had an "enormous impact … on this outbreak in our nation" since the pandemic began, Redfield said, and that will hold true until coronavirus vaccines are widely accessible.
Second, the country needs to massively scale up testing and contact tracing (individuals exposed to infected people) so that new COVID-19 cases can be identified before they become larger outbreaks. And finally, Redfield said, U.S. health officials must spend the summer months persuading citizens about the importance of getting flu shots in the fall, in order to minimize the number of flu-related hospitalizations.
As Redfield puts it, getting a flu vaccination this year "may allow there to be a hospital bed available for your mother or grandmother that may get coronavirus."
Updated April 22 at 8:00 p.m. ET: During the President's daily coronavirus briefing, director Redfield clarified his comments to the Post, saying:
"I think it's really important to emphasize what I didn't say. I didn't say [the next wave of COVID-19] was going to be worse. I said it was going to be more more difficult and potentially complicated because we'll have flu and coronavirus circulating at the same time. I want to emphasize we continue to build the nation's public health infrastructure to ensure that we have the capacity to stay in the containment mode."
- Going viral: 6 new findings about viruses
- The 12 deadliest viruses on Earth
- Top 10 mysterious diseases
Originally published on Live Science.
For a limited time, you can take out a digital subscription to any of our best-selling science magazines for just $2.38 per month, or 45% off the standard price for the first three months.
Live Science newsletter
Stay up to date on the latest science news by signing up for our Essentials newsletter.
Brandon is the space/physics editor at Live Science. His writing has appeared in The Washington Post, Reader's Digest, CBS.com, the Richard Dawkins Foundation website and other outlets. He holds a bachelor's degree in creative writing from the University of Arizona, with minors in journalism and media arts. He enjoys writing most about space, geoscience and the mysteries of the universe.
Here's an idea - let's have enough flu vaccine ready. So far, I don't have a whole lotta faith in the government's level of preparedness for any of this.Reply
The biggest problem with this line of thought is the blatantly obvious factor of many carriers having gone completely unnoticed at this point, which increases the likelihood of a certain level of immunity the next time around (if there even is a next time). The virus is quickly losing its novelty factor.Reply
This post's title is very misleading. Have you even a clue, to the amount of supplies, that were short on this one, that we will have by fall? Not to mention the added personal, practices and treatment. And a network for it.Reply
The sleeping giant hasn't had it's coffee yet.
If one wants to get sick, this fall will be the best time to do it.
Edit: This episode has put every county health department on notice......stock and plot(track).
With people on quarantine, viruses like flu and common cold, that are less infections, will have hard time to resurge next season. With social distancing, we are unwillingly fighting not only covid-19 but also suppressing the spread of other viruses. In fact, flu season in South Asia normally starts later than in US and with quarantines and masks since early January, this spring flu barely emerged in that part of the world.Reply
Another interesting fact, the flu virus mutates fast, that's why a new strain comes each year as the new "season". With less people infected due to social distancing to fight covid-19, there will be less mutations and we might have several years of mild flu seasons until mother nature create a new strong & infectious strain.
I have no such knowledge. Never followed much health advice. I've been house bound for about 7 years now. No routine change for me. But I've never seen such historic events so fast.Reply
And I thought my retirement years would be boring.
Longer we take to get population herd immunity in our areas of the country, the more likely isolated enclaves like nursing homes are going to get penetrated and then decimated by the virus.Reply