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How effective are travel bans for curbing coronavirus spread?

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The travel restrictions imposed in light of the new coronavirus outbreak have only modestly delayed the spread of the virus.

An empty airport.
(Image credit: Shutterstock)

The travel restrictions imposed in light of the new coronavirus outbreak have only modestly delayed the spread of the virus outside of Wuhan, China, where the outbreak began, according to a new study.

For the study, researchers used computer modeling along with real-world data to simulate the spread of the disease, known as COVID-19, under different scenarios, they reported Friday (March 6) in the journal Science. The authors found that the travel quarantine around Wuhan — which began on Jan. 23 and put the city and its airport on lockdown — delayed the spread of the virus throughout mainland China by only three to five days.

Further analysis revealed that even very strict travel restrictions — which reduce air travel to and from China by 90% — would not have a big effect on the outbreak's trajectory unless paired with efforts to slow down the rate of disease transmission between people. Such efforts include early detection of COVID-19 cases, isolation of cases and contacts, and tried-and-true public health measures like hand washing.

"Moving forward we expect that travel restrictions to COVID-19 affected areas will have modest effects, and that transmission-reduction interventions will provide the greatest benefit to mitigate the epidemic," the authors concluded.

Originally published on Live Science. 

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Rachael Rettner
Rachael Rettner
Contributor

Rachael is a Live Science contributor, and was a former channel editor and senior writer for Live Science between 2010 and 2022. She has a master's degree in journalism from New York University's Science, Health and Environmental Reporting Program. She also holds a B.S. in molecular biology and an M.S. in biology from the University of California, San Diego. Her work has appeared in Scienceline, The Washington Post and Scientific American.