Climate Change Forecast: When Cities Will Hit 'Tipping Point'
Estimated dates of coming climate extremes under the RCP8.5 model, which projects today's levels of carbon dioxide emissions continuing through 2100.
Credit: Camilo Mora et al./Nature

For the first time, researchers have pinpointed when global warming will become the norm in the world's capitals.

This list of cities shows each one's tipping point: the year when local temperatures will exceed historical extremes recorded in the past 150 years. The dates reflect two carbon emission scenarios. The first, RCP8.5, assumes no change in global carbon output by 2100. The second, RCP4.5, is a moderate rollback in carbon dioxide emissions.

The predictions come from a meta-analysis by University of Hawaii, Manoa, geographer Camilo Mora and his co-authors — all University of Hawaii students — of 39 climate models independently developed by climate scientists from 12 countries. A meta-analysis is a statistical approach that gathers existing research and examines trends in the data. Their findings were published Oct. 9 in the journal Nature. A full list of cities and a searchable world map is online at the University of Hawaii.

COUNTRY

CITY

RCP8.5

RCP4.5

Australia

Perth

2042

2072

Brazil

Rio de Janeiro

2050

2079

Chile

Santiago

2043

2071

China

Beijing

2046

2078

Colombia

Bogotá

2033

2047

Egypt

Cairo

2036

2057

Iceland

Reykjavik

2066

2084

India

Mumbai

2034

2051

Indonesia

Jakarta

2029

2042

Indonesia

Manokwari

2020

2025

Iraq

Baghdad

2036

2055

Italy

Rome

2044

2067

Japan

Tokyo

2041

2067

Kenya

Nairobi

2036

2058

Mexico

Mexico City

2031

2050

Nigeria

Lagos

2029

2043

Russia

Moscow

2063

2092

South Africa

Pretoria

2043

2068

Thailand

Bangkok

2046

2070

UK

London

2056

2088

USA

Anchorage

2071

2095

USA

Honolulu

2043

2067

USA

New York City

2047

2072

USA

Orlando

2046

2074

USA

San Francisco

2049

2074

USA

Washington

2047

2071

Email Becky Oskin or follow her @beckyoskin. Follow us @livescience, Facebook & Google+. Original article on LiveScience.