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The Baffling Science of Economics

September 18th, 2008
Author Robert Roy Britt

When we all start hearing things about the economy that we never heard of before … nay, when we all start actually paying attention to the economy … you know something must be really wrong.

And try as they might, economists, business leaders, regulators, politicians and business journalists don’t seem to be helping much. I mean, c’mon, do you know what’s going on right now? More important, do you have any clue at all what’s going to happen tomorrow?

Let’s look at just some highlights of the craziness:

Yesterday, people actually bought 3-month Treasury bills — considered one of the safest short-duration investments because they’re backed by the government — that had negative yield. First time since 1940. That means in 3-months time, you get back less than you loaned the government. Nice to see people helping out in this way, as obviously the Feds need that money because …

The Feds just pumped another $180 billion into the markets today (on top of how much in socialistic bailouts and other unfathomably costly measures lately?). That seemed to ease some jitters for the moment. But these dollar figures are getting to sound pretty meaningless to most of us, aren’t they? And where does that money come from (besides the selling of T-bills). Best I can figure, they just print more and the national debt goes up…

The U.S. national debt, as of 1:11 p.m. ET today, was $9,643,005,101,724.49. I think that’s trillions, for whatever perspective that might provide. Given the current population of 304,751,034 at this moment, each citizen’s share is $31,642.24. You have that under your mattress, right? I mean, it’s somewhere, right? Because soon you’ll need a bunch more. 11 minutes later, the total debt had risen by about $35,000. Anyway …

Find someone who really understands all this and you probably have someone who is very, very rich and did not just destroy his huge company. Which brings us to …

The Forbes 400 richest list just came out. These 400 people collectively have a net worth of $1.57 trillion. Maybe they could lend a hand? (Though even if they all liquidated everything, they could not pay off our national debt.) And anyway, who would buy all their stuff? Maybe the Feds …

If you haven’t already, check out our Clara Moskowitz’s account of how the current debacle stacks up to history, and what several economists think about our collective economic future. The range, and they might actually be right this time, is from pretty bleak to really bleak, with some hope that in a few years it’ll get better.

Why is all this on a science Web site? In part because we wanted to take a look at just how inexact the science of economics is. As one glaring example of how little the experts know (and therefore why you should be careful whose rosy pronouncements you trust): consumers, collectively, can predict inflation as accurately as economists.

I have no worthy advice for what you should do with your money, other than to suggest you might as well just use a crystal ball to help you decide.

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Vatican: Evolution is Fine

September 16th, 2008
Author Robert Roy Britt

When people argue about evolution vs. creationism (or the disingenuous alternative to creationism called “intelligent design”) it often comes off as a debate between science and religion.

This is the case with some conservative Protestants in the United States. However, the Catholic Church has made it clear that it has no problem with evolution.

Archbishop Gianfranco Ravasi, the Vatican’s culture minister, said today that the theory of evolution is compatible with the Bible. The Vatican discourages literal interpretations of the Bible, including the literal interpretation of creationism that is at odds with the very solid scientific theory of evolution.

School districts in many U.S. states have wrestled with whether or not to teach intelligent design, which has no basis in science whatsoever, as an alternative to evolution in science classes. Scientists argue that you have to teach science in a science class, and keep religion (and fantasy ideas, like intelligent design) out of science class. The debate crept into national politics recently with reports that vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin might be a creationist. Meanwhile, a recent Pew survey found that for the first time in more than a decade, a majority of Americans think religious organizations should stay out of politics.

Ravasi said it this way: Creationism belongs to the “strictly theological sphere” and could not be used “ideologically in science.” According to Reuters, however, no apologies are forthcoming for Charles Darwin.

(Worth noting here that the Vatican’s chief astronomer said earlier this year that believing in aliens does not contradict faith in God.)

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Bigfoot Turns Out to Be an Opossum

August 15th, 2008
Author Robert Roy Britt

LOL. That’s the first and hopefully last time I start a blog that way. But c’mon.

The claim of three guys that they had remains of Bigfoot was, we all knew, silly. So they did DNA testing and … get this: Bigfoot is either a human or opossum (which is about the size of a house cat). Or, as they now claim, the DNA testing wasn’t done right. Yeah, that’s it!

Let’s just put this story to bed right there, unless you want to read the real story behind the stunt.

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Alaska Mired in Potentially Record Chill

July 25th, 2008
Author Robert Roy Britt

Anyone suffering sweltering heat this summer will be interested to know what’s going on in Alaska.

The state is on pace to have the fewest days on record reaching 65 degrees. The current record for fewest 65-plus-degree days was 16 in 1970. So far, with summer half over, there have been only seven. The forecast is for continued cool weather through July.

The cool weather is being blamed at least partly on La Nina, which has been in place most of the past year and involves cooler-than-average temperatures off the coast of South America and, in turn, tends to generate cool temperatures in Alaska (among other large-scale effects).

We certainly live on a planet of extremes. Some trivia to pursue …

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Wind Power Gets Wings in Texas

July 17th, 2008
Author Robert Roy Britt

Texas state officials gave the nod today to the largest wind-power project in the country.

The project, to cost at least $3 billion, will include significant new transmission lines to get power from windy areas, where the turbines will be, to urban areas. Texas electric customers will pay about $4 more per month on their electric bills to help cover the costs of investment.

State officials aren’t just blowing hot air.

According to MSNBC: Texas is already the national leader in wind power, and wind supporters say Thursday’s move by the Public Utility Commission will make the Lone Star State a leader in moving energy to the urban areas that need electricity.

“We will add more wind than the 14 states following Texas combined,” said PUC Commissioner Paul Hudson. “I think that’s a very extraordinary achievement. Some think we haven’t gone far enough, some think we’ve pushed too far.”

Meantime, one town in Missouri is entirely powered by wind.

Not everyone is hot on wind. Some argue the giant turbines (not windmills anymore) are noisy and can kill birds. And one study suggested the drag o turbines could actually alter the climate.

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The Obesity Olympics

July 9th, 2008
Author Robert Roy Britt

Obesity used to be largely an American pastime. No more. Getting fat is now a big global competition.

Reuters reports today: “Obesity levels in China are rising fast, with more than a quarter of the adult population overweight or obese, as people add more meat and dairy products to their diet, causing serious health problems.”

Other studies have found similar rising rates of obesity in other countries in recent years. The World Health Org now calls obesity a global epidemic. It seems everyone’s trying to get in on our game.

“Increased consumption of more energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods with high levels of sugar and saturated fats, combined with reduced physical activity, have led to obesity rates that have risen three-fold or more since 1980 in some areas of North America, the United Kingdom, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, the Pacific Islands, Australasia and China.The obesity epidemic is not restricted to industrialized societies; this increase is often faster in developing countries than in the developed world.”

As here, people in China don’t have to work as hard as they used to (that’s a gross averaging of the masses, of course) and so cancer and heart disease are on the rise, too. Delightful progress, eh?

“What’s happening in China should be seen as a marker for what is going to hit the rest of the developing world if we fail to act,” said researcher Barry Popkin of the University of North Carolina.

Also out today, a comprehensive study of studies that finds good diet and exercise promote healthier brains.

So why doesn’t everyone eat better? I guess a) we don’t have to, and b) it’s easy not to, and c) for some it’s very challenging culturally and economically, and d) our species is not really all that smart (see “promote healthier brains” above for tips on how to improve in this area).

And before the hate mail starts, this is not about aesthetics. Obesity kills friends, spouses, grandparents and children, and it is expensive for a society as it fuels diabetes and other diseases that we all pay for in skyrocketing health care costs. It makes us less competitive at work and less able-bodied as a nation. Poor diet choices are costing modern humans a fortune in body repair bills, pain and agony, and reduced years of life (the last few of which tend to be less enjoyable than they would be otherwise).

Slightly less seriously, some even argue that if everyone trimmed down a little, we’d save gas as our vehicles toted lighter loads. Clearly at the personal level, eating less would allow household budgets to draw in a notch. And for anyone planning to be a grandparent some day: Scientists now know that if you eat fewer calories (simply substitute veggies for a daily desert), you will likely have more time to bounce those grandkids on your knee.

Okay, none of that matters to you? Then it’s about sex.

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Forced Environmentalism

July 9th, 2008
Author Robert Roy Britt

It’s no secret that environmentalism is fast going mainstream. But the reasons are worth pointing out again: Many people have no choice as they pinch pennies in the current recession/inflation age, and the planet is sometimes the beneficiary. Others who perhaps never leaned green and are flush with cash nonetheless see the national security benefits of reducing dependence on foreign oil.

The evidence can be seen in several ways the new energy crisis is changing American life, often with good side effects for the planet and the nation, at least in the long run: People are driving less, driving slower and shopping smarter (which means consuming less of stuff that’s often produced or shipped inefficiently or imported unnecessarily).

Three new developments this week suggest a broadening of the trends:

1. In Korea shoppers of appliances and electronics are asking about energy use. American shoppers will wake to this soon, too. Americans spend about $1 billion a year, by one estimate, on “vampire electricity,” powering devices even when they’re off; you’ve seen the orange “I’m ready to go” lights on stereo equipment, etc. (how you can save a buck).

The dawning awareness will have a trickle-up effect as smart manufactures ramp up investment and development of products that use less energy. The shift in computer displays from conventional cold cathode fluorescent lamps (CCFLs) to light emitting diode (LED) displays is one example already well underway, but now there’s incentive to build more energy efficient appliances, from clothes dryers to toasters.

2. Another interesting and long-awaited development, or at least rumor of it: The Toyota Prius will get an optional and not overly useful solar panel, because the car company thinks consumers demand even token efforts at solar as part of the overall package to wean ourselves from oil. One small step toward the 100 mpg car that’s going to sell like gangbusters soon as some car company makes the not-so-difficult leap.

3. Some politicians continue to push for smart, futuristic thinking where the White House won’t: New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg said this week the city will spend $2.3 billion to cut greenhouse gas emissions from municipal buildings and operations by 30 percent in 30 years. “The city is doing its part, I hope the private sector follows our example and finds conservation savings of their own,” Bloomberg said. Interesting he had no advice for the federal government.

Meantime, the U.S. and global leaders vowed this week to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2050 in one of the most empty promises ever to come out of the political arena. The G8 meeting would have been better spent deciding to don eight Jimmy Carter sweaters this winter.

Point being: For now, natural economic pressures and personal decisions rooted in strong morals and economic necessity are the primary drivers of change in how we manage the planet’s resources.

Gotta toss this in: Time Magazine’s Joe Klein wrote an obvious yet illuminating piece on air conditioners, and how stupidly obsessed we’ve become with them. He bemoans those who cool homes and businesses to 75 and lower, especially on delightful spring days. I’m with him on this. We keep our AZ home at around 83 on summer days — not to save the world but because it’s quite pleasant. Not everyone has the same taste for warmth, but it’s insane that on a 110-degree day the movie theaters, restaurants and stores are so chilled I need a sweater.

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Frontlashes: Hypermiling and Stripping

July 2nd, 2008
Author Robert Roy Britt

Things change so quickly these days that backlashes to Next Big Thing occur before most of us even know about the Thing. I’m going to call them frontlashes.

Here’s one: Hypermilers fear a backlash as wannabies latch on to their most dangerous techniques such as drafting.

Huh?

Hypermilers are, as I learned today, people who try to squeeze every mile out of a gallon of gas. There are the sensible tricks: driving slower; coming off stop lights without laying rubber; and keeping your engine fit as a fiddle. Then there’s rolling through stop signs, driving way too slow, and drafting like Kyle Busch.

The classic hypermilers are worried that idiots picking up on their tactics (at sites like leanmpg.com, hypermiling.com and hypermilers.com) will take the dangerous ones to extreme, giving all hypermilers a bad name. “Now that the general public keeps hearing this falsehood that hypermiling is all about drafting, a lot of idiots are going to start trying it — and we’re going to get the blame.” Well, sure, now that we’ve exposed the frontlash, the backlash should go into high gear. I’m going to look for some of these idiots this afternoon when I hit the road, in fact.

I suspect the rapidly changing economy in America will set up all kinds of frontlashes (I don’t expect the term to catch on, however).

Another example: Hypermiling is to me today what stripping was a few weeks back. We learned of a backlash among local real estate agents to stripping, which we then learned is rampant in our town. People who are peeved that they’re losing their homes to foreclosure are taking everything with them, leaving the houses largely unsaleable. The backlash gained steam last week when a guy in Pennsylvania went to jail for stripping a $1.2 million home of everything AND the kitchen sink.

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Modern Grave Robbers Steal Vases for Cash

July 1st, 2008
Author Robert Roy Britt

Stealing corpses is apparently old school. A new wave of cemetery thefts around the country, driven by the scrap value of bronze markers and flower vases, has prompted some lawmakers to stiffen penalties.

From The St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

“In March, the Madison County Sheriff’s Department arrested three people for stealing 40 vases from two Metro East cemeteries. The owner of a Granite City scrap recycling center turned them in. … The scrap value of a bronze vase is about $10, according to cemetery operators; the replacement price often tops $300.”

Similar thefts have been reported in numerous locales this month, including Kansas City, Sweet Home, Oregon, and a spree in Cook County, Illinois that affected nearly 1,500 families.

Grave-digging isn’t always about cash. In Texas, a trio apparently dug up a corpse earlier this year only to smoke pot out of the skull. And as a total aside, scientists earlier this year announced advancements in sniffing out corpses to speed up the process of finding graves.

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What the World Thinks of US

June 30th, 2008
Author Robert Roy Britt

For the first time in a long time, some good news about how the world sees America:

“Views of the U.S. improved or stayed the same as last year in 18 nations, the first positive signs the poll has found for the U.S. image worldwide this decade,” according to folks at the Pew Research Center, who caution that “Five years after the start of the war in Iraq, the image of the United States abroad remains far less positive than it was before the war and at the beginning of the century.”

The center put together in interesting interactive global map to view this and other results, including the level of confidence in President Bush and candidates Obama and McCain.

Among the findings of the full survey, which included 24,000 people in 24 countries, is another shift in opinions that could factor into U.S. relations in the future:

“Around the world, people have a new concern: slumping economic conditions. And they have a familiar complaint — most think the U.S. is having a considerable influence on their economy, and it is largely seen as a negative one.”

Separately, a broader and years-long survey of 52 countries released this week found happiness is on the rise.

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