Forecasters predict that a potentially supercharged El Niño is coming this summer, and it could push temperatures across the globe to unprecedented extremes.

Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center announced that there is a 62% chance of El Niño emerging between June and August. In other words, El Niño is more likely than not this year.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate pattern of atmospheric and sea temperature changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During El Niño, warmer waters gather east of the equatorial Pacific, forcing the jet stream south. This brings warmer and drier conditions to the northern U.S., while the Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S. have an increased risk of flooding.

The tropical Pacific Ocean is currently in the midst of La Niña, the cold phase of ENSO, when sea surface temperatures fall at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (0.5 degrees Celsius) below the long-term average. La Niña is expected to end in the coming weeks as the sea warms, according to the latest Climate Prediction Center announcement. El Niño will then occur if sea surface temperatures reach and remain at least 0.9 F above the long-term average.

If El Niño does emerge as anticipated, it could intensify into a "super El Niño," AccuWeather reported. A super El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures reach at least 3.6 F (2 C) above the long-term average.

"Intensity is uncertain but there is potential for a moderate to possibly strong El Niño this fall into winter," Paul Pastelok, a meteorologist and lead U.S. long-range forecaster at AccuWeather, said, per the weather website.

Accuweather's forecasters estimate that there's a 15% chance of a super El Niño developing by the end of the hurricane season in November. Meanwhile, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gives a 1-in-3 chance of a strong El Niño emerging between October and December but describes the potential strength as "very uncertain."

El Niño tends to strengthen hurricane activity over the central and eastern Pacific while suppressing hurricanes in the Atlantic, which typically leads to a less-active hurricane season overall.

The ENSO cycle triggers a warm El Niño and then a cold La Niña every two to seven years, on average. However, they aren't always on time. Equally, while each phase tends to last around nine to 12 months, their duration varies.

Earth was last in El Niño between May 2023 and March 2024. On that occasion, El Niño was close to being a super El Niño, but while sea surface temperatures breached the 3.6 F threshold, they didn't remain above the threshold for long enough to qualify. The last super El Niño occurred in 2015-2016.

The last El Niño contributed to record-breaking heat in 2023 and 2024, with 2024 currently the hottest year on record. If El Niño emerges in 2026, then the year will get warmer, but is unlikely to be as hot as 2024 — we started the year in La Niña, after all. Global temperatures in 2027, however, could be pushed to record-breaking heights, according to a post on the social media platform X by Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and energy systems analyst.

"The El Nino cometh," Hausfather wrote. "This would push up our estimate for 2026 global temperatures (though its still unlikely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year), and make 2027 very likely to be the warmest year on record given the historical lag b/w ENSO and surface temp."

It's important to remember that a variety of factors influence the weather and climate. The planet is already warming due to climate change and will continue to do so, regardless of what ENSO is doing.

Extreme flooding events caused by hurricanes that used to happen once every 100 years in the northeastern U.S. may become annual occurrences by the end of this century, according to a new study.

Researchers wanted to predict how the changing behavior of hurricanes — they are expected to become more frequent and more intense — and sea level rise as a result of climate change will alter the risks of flooding in the region over the next several decades.

Their results were sobering. "By the end of this century, the flood hazard is going to go up tremendously," study lead author Amirhosein Begmohammadi, a civil engineer who worked on the project during his postdoctoral research at Princeton University, told Live Science. To predict the risk of flooding under different carbon emission scenarios, Begmohammadi and his colleagues developed a computer model to generate a series of synthetic storms and included predictions for sea level rise.

The researchers also adjusted their model to take into account the angle at which storms hit the coast. Most hurricanes that affect the northeast move parallel to the coast, but some, like Hurricane Sandy in 2012, hit it head-on, and can cause much more damage. "Those are extreme but rare," Begmohammadi said.

The model predicts that both sea level rise and changing storm features could make extreme flood events more frequent. Historical 100-year coastal flooding could happen every year by the end of the century, while historical 500-year floods may come every 1 to 60 years under a moderate carbon emissions scenario, and every 1 to 20 years under higher emissions. In more northern areas like Connecticut and New York, sea level rise may be the main driver of the increased flood risk, while storm changes are less important. Further south, in areas like New Jersey and Virginia, both factors may contribute significantly to higher flood risks.

The findings were published Nov. 7 in the journal Earth's Future.

Jeff Ollerhead, a coastal geomorphologist at Mount Allison University in Sackville, Canada, said that the study highlights how scientific uncertainty is the least important variable in predicting future climate risks. Ollerhead, who was not involved in the study, told Live Science that the majority of the variation in models comes from the "social uncertainty" of not knowing what emissions pathway the world will go down. "We don't know what people are going to do," he said, referring to how political leaders will respond to the climate crisis. "That's the biggest uncertainty."

The new study focused on the strength and frequency of hurricanes. For the more northern stretch of the coast, said Ollerhead, the impact of sea level rise means it almost won't matter if storms become more powerful because even smaller storms will be able to cause extensive flooding. So even if the frequency and power of storms remains roughly the same, the effect of each storm will increase as sea levels continue to rise.

Hurricane Fiona, which hit Ollerhead's region of Atlantic Canada in 2022, had storm surges of close to 6.5 feet (2 meters). But if sea levels rise by 3.3 feet (1 m) over the next 50 years or so, then a storm just half as powerful could cause similar damage. "It will take much smaller events to put water in your back yard," he said. "And they might happen every couple of years."

To prepare for this new reality, people living near the coast will have to adapt to more frequent flooding. The best defence, said Ollerhead, is to move up and back — to higher ground further from the coast. But not every community will be willing or able to do so, and it will be important to update building codes to take into account the changing conditions.

"People who design for resilience do so using the 100-year events, but they're not designing for the future changes,” said Begmohammadi. "A 100-year event now is not the same as one in the future."

After circling the central Caribbean Sea and remaining 'near stationary' this week, Tropical Storm Melissa is now about 160 miles (260 kilometers) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and drifting southeastward at 1 mph (1.6 km/h).

The storm's bafflingly slow advance, which is projected to stay below an average person's walking speed at around 2 mph (3.2 km/h) over the weekend, could be dire for several Caribbean islands, experts warn.

Tropical Storm Melissa will continue to lumber along a path somewhere between Jamaica and Haiti, with forecasters predicting a slow movement toward the northeast and north in the coming hours, and a westward drift from Saturday (Oct. 25) onward.

Melissa is expected to bring 8 to 14 inches (20 to 35 centimeters) of rain to parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica through Sunday (Oct. 26) night, with locally higher amounts possible, according to an update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at 8 a.m. ET today (Oct. 24).

"Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected in the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides anticipated in southern Haiti," representatives wrote. "Across northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 3 to 5 inches [8 to 13 cm] of rain are expected through Sunday night. Flooding impacts may increase across western Jamaica next week."

Researchers expect the storm to intensify rapidly into a major Category 3 or above hurricane over the weekend, fueled by near-record-warm Caribbean waters, but the storm is likely to remain incredibly slow-moving, CNN reported.

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. It's unclear exactly what has been stalling it, but a combination of strong upper-level winds and other dampening conditions across weather systems could be responsible, according to CNN. For instance, the lack of a cold front — a wedge of cold air that pushes warmer air up and causes it to release its energy, creating bad weather — might partially explain Melissa's crawling speed.

But Melissa's lagging pace is not as unusual now as it would have been just decades ago. Research indicates that tropical storms are getting slower, particularly as they approach land masses. A 2018 study, for example, found that tropical storms globally slowed by 10% between 1949 and 2016 — and James Kossin, the study's author, tentatively linked this to human-caused global warming.

"The magnitude of the slowdown varies substantially by region and by latitude, but is generally consistent with expected changes in atmospheric circulation forced by anthropogenic emissions," Kossin, an atmospheric scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Center for Weather and Climate and at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, wrote in the study.

In a subsequent study published in 2019, Kossin and a colleague reported that North Atlantic tropical storms have become more likely to "stall" in coastal regions, bringing more rainfall to those areas. The researchers attributed this observation to both slower moving speeds and abrupt changes in direction, noting that tropical storms now spend many hours simply hovering, which is what Melissa is currently doing.

Their results are bolstered by more recent research in the journal PNAS, which revealed that the average duration of tropical cyclones has increased over the past 300 years. Additionally, a 2020 study found that future climate change will draw out tropical storms, particularly in the midlatitudes.

The problem with slow-moving tropical storms is that they can dump huge quantities of rain on certain areas, triggering devastating floods and mudslides. An example of this was Hurricane Harvey's "stall" over Texas in 2017, which caused the highest rainfall total from a tropical cyclone in U.S. history, according to CNN.

A Category 4 hurricane in the eastern Pacific Ocean could hit Hawaii early next week, but it will weaken considerably before it gets there, storm predictions show.

Hurricane Kiko rapidly intensified from a tropical storm on Monday (Sept. 1) to a Category 4 hurricane on Wednesday (Sept. 3), according to The Weather Channel. The storm is moving westward and currently tracking across a region of warm water and low wind shear roughly 1,300 miles (2,100 kilometers) southeast of Hawaii, meaning it could strengthen in the next few hours, forecasters said.

The latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast suggests Hurricane Kiko is heading for Hawaii and may reach the islands by Tuesday or Wednesday next week (Sept. 9 or 10). Kiko is whipping up winds of up to 145 mph (230 km/h), according to a CNN video — but meteorologists predict that these gusts will weaken over the weekend to the levels of a tropical storm or low-category hurricane.

Kiko is "yet another example of a hurricane undergoing rapid intensification amongst extremely warm waters," Brandon Miller, a senior meteorologist and supervising weather producer for CNN, said in the video. However, it's highly unlikely that the storm will remain as powerful as it is now through Sept. 9 or 10, Miller said, because it has to pass through a patch of relatively cold water and trade winds first.

Hurricane Kiko will likely hit the cool, windy patch on Sunday (Sept. 7), which will reduce some of the storm’s intensity, according to The Weather Channel. Pockets of dry air hovering to the east of Hawaii will further slow the storm and Kiko will also be forced to cross wind shear that will cut the ground from under its feet.

It's possible that Hurricane Kiko will miss Hawaii entirely, as the storm is expected to gain latitude through early next week. A "cone of uncertainty" shared by the NHC — which sums up the different paths that Hurricane Kiko might follow in the shape of an elongated, sideways teardrop — shows that Kiko's center track could move north of Hawaii, which would avert some of the storm's worst impacts on the archipelago.

Related: 'Now is the time': Hurricane category 6 could be introduced under new storm severity scale

But hurricanes don't have to make landfall to bring bad weather. "Don't let your guard down, Hawaiians," Miller said. "Kiko could still bring impacts to the island, such as flooding rainfall and gusty winds."

Swells caused by the storm could reach Hawaiian shores toward the end of the weekend, generating potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents, The Weather Channel warned. Many of the Hawaiian Islands also still sit within the NHC's uncertainty cone.

The distance between Kiko's center track and Hawaii's individual islands will determine how severe the impacts on those islands will be, according to The Weather Channel.

Residents should therefore check updates regularly and stay informed, forecasters said.

A new hurricane categorization system could help people better prepare for storms by incorporating risks from storm surges and rainfall into the categories, a study published this month reveals.

Storm surges — elevated seawater levels near coasts — and rainfall cause almost 80% of hurricane deaths, yet they are not accounted for in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), which forecasters currently use to categorize a hurricane's severity and plays a key role in communicating hurricane risk to the public. Some experts have previously argued that the threat of storms is not always properly reflected in the SSHWS's 1 to 5 category ratings, which are based solely on wind speed.

"There have been too many instances of incredible loss of life and destruction because a low category number on the SSHWS [...] did not match the danger of the storm," Jennifer Collins, a professor in the School of Geosciences at the University of South Florida and co-author of the new study, said in a statement.

The SSHWS estimates potential property damage from sustained wind, ranging from "some damage" in a Category 1 hurricane to "catastrophic damage" in a Category 4 or 5 storm. But property damage isn't the only potentially deadly effect of a hurricane. A low-category hurricane may still cause a tremendous tidal surge and unleash torrential rain, triggering devastating floods and other hazards.

One example is 2005's Hurricane Katrina, which was listed as a Category 3 based on wind speeds. But storm surge and rainfall were responsible for most of the 1,800 deaths caused by Katrina and contributed hugely to the $125 billion in damage, according to the new study.

Another example is Hurricane Florence, which made landfall in South Carolina in 2018 as a Category 1. The low danger rating did not alert communities to the catastrophic flooding that killed 55 people across the southeastern U.S., the researchers said.

Related: Birth of a hurricane: What meteorologists look for as they hunt for early signs of a tropical cyclone forming

"Frequently, people use the storm's category to decide whether to evacuate," Collins said. "That's incredibly dangerous because if they hear it's only a tropical storm or Category 1, too often no alarm bells go off, and they see no cause for concern."

To address the SSHWS's shortcomings, Collins and colleagues developed an alternative hurricane warning system in 2021. Dubbed the Tropical Cyclone Severity Scale (TCSS), this system has six categories and takes into account wind speed, storm surge and rainfall — the three biggest hazards from hurricanes.

The TCSS assigns scores between 1 and 5 to each of the three hazards depending on their predicted severity for a given hurricane. These scores are then combined into a final score, which is established using three rules in different scenarios.

First, the final score is never lower than the highest of the three individual hazard scores. Second, if two individual hazards have the same scores of 3 or higher, then the final score increases by one — so, if storm surge has a score of 2 but wind and rainfall are both 3, then the hurricane is classed as a Category 4. The third rule is that a final score of 6 is given if either two hazards have scores of 5, or if two hazards have scores of 4 and the third is a 5.

"The higher category is important," Collins said. "Many people base their decision to evacuate on that number, not just the details of the hazard."

A "more realistic" system

Researchers have been working on the TCSS for several years, but the new study looked to confirm its effectiveness at warning the public of a hurricane's dangers. To test their warning system, Collins and her colleagues sent 4,000 participants living along the Gulf and East coasts forecasts for 10 fictitious hurricanes affecting their communities.

Half of the participants received warnings in the SSHWS format, while the other half received warnings using the TCSS system. They then completed an online quiz about how they would react in the different scenarios. The team’s findings were published Aug. 19 in the journal Scientific Reports.

Participants who were sent TCSS forecasts were more likely to identify the main hazard from a hurricane correctly, and significantly more likely to evacuate for non-wind hazards than those who were sent SSHWS forecasts, according to the study.

Correct identification of the main hazard boosted participants' intent to take relevant precautions, such as shielding their houses against flooding with sandbags and erecting window protections against the wind. On the other hand, participants who had incomplete information about a storm were more likely to miscalculate risks or take no measures at all.

The results suggest that shifting away from the SSHWS would improve the public's understanding of hurricane risks and lead to more informed decision-making ahead of storms, Collins said.

"I'm fairly optimistic that now is the time," she said. "We now know many people make decisions based on the category messaging, so we need to ensure that we are communicating with a scale which is more realistic of the severity of the hurricane."

Rainclouds and thunderstorms off the Pacific coast of Mexico will likely trigger the first Western Hemisphere tropical storm of the 2025 season in the coming hours — with a chance this storm could strengthen into a hurricane, meteorologists say.

There is a near 100% chance that a tropical storm will form in the next 48 hours, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane Center (NHC). Once the storm is confirmed, its name will be tropical storm Alvin, and it will have formed just two weeks after the beginning of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season on May 15.

As of 7:50 a.m. EDT on Wednesday (May 28), an area of low pressure producing heavy rain clouds and storms was located south of the coastal Mexican city of Acapulco. The system was moving in a west to northwest direction at a speed of about 10 miles per hour (16 km/h), according to the NHC.

"An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico continues to produce showers and thunderstorms, but the system still lacks a well-defined circulation," NHC meteorologists wrote on a map showing the location of the system. "Environmental conditions remain favorable for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight."

The system's current direction of travel suggests that any tropical depression or storm born from it will fizzle out in the Eastern Pacific without making landfall, according to The Weather Channel — but it's possible that the system could curl around and migrate northeastward, with stormy weather hitting Mexico's coast around Saturday (May 31).

A tropical storm is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained wind speeds between 39 and 73 mph (63 to 117 km/h). According to NOAA's National Ocean Service, meteorologists use the term "tropical cyclone" to describe any organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters, and then starts to rotate in a closed, low-level vortex. The weakest tropical cyclones are called tropical depressions, and they are characterized by winds slower than 39 mph. Once maximum sustained wind speeds exceed 73 mph, tropical cyclones are called hurricanes.

Related: La Niña is dead — what that means for this year's hurricanes and weather

Tropical cyclones are typically caused by pre-existing weather disturbances, but they also require high moisture and relatively light winds to form, according to the National Ocean Service. If the conditions persist for long enough, their combined effects will whip up violent winds and large waves, and potentially trigger torrential rain and coastal flooding.

According to The Weather Channel, a very strong Alvin could transform into a hurricane as soon as Thursday (May 29). Regardless of whether Alvin makes landfall, high surf, rip currents and heavy rain could hit parts of Mexico's coast later this week if the tropical storm develops, the broadcaster said.

It's unclear whether the storm could impact the U.S. West Coast, but scientists say the Southwest could receive more moisture than usual.

Alvin may be the Western Hemisphere's first tropical storm of 2025, but it's very unlikely to be the last. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season starts two weeks before the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs every year from June 1 through Nov. 30, peaking between mid-August and mid-October.

This year's Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be particularly ferocious, with NOAA predicting above-normal activity and between 13 and 19 named tropical storms. Six to 10 of these storms will likely strengthen into hurricanes, and three to five could become major hurricanes, forecasters say.

The forecasted hyperactivity of 2025’s Atlantic hurricane season follows from 2024, as record-shattering ocean temperatures fuelled the rapid intensification of hurricanes such as Beryl, Helene and Milton, which sowed devastation across Florida and the Caribbean.

"For the second straight year, NOAA predicts an above-average hurricane season," CBS reporter Karen Hua said in a video. "Five hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. last season, causing more than $100 billion worth of damage."

While 2025's Atlantic hurricane season may bring above-normal tropical cyclone activity, NOAA predicts normal to below-average activity in the Pacific. In terms of numbers, forecasters think there could be 1 to 4 tropical cyclones between now and November.

2025's Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be more ferocious than usual, according to forecasts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The hurricane season, which begins on June 1 and runs until Nov. 30, is predicted to have a 60% chance of above-normal activity. There are expected to be 13 to 19 named tropical storms — with wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h) or higher — six to 10 of which are expected to become hurricanes, with three to five of these hitting major hurricane status — with wind speeds above 111 mph (179 km/h).

Years with normal levels of hurricane activity experience 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

"NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings," U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said in a statement on May 22.

Tropical storms usually form over the warm ocean waters near the tropics. If a storm becomes a rotating, organized thunderstorm system with wind speeds below 39 mph (63 km per hour), it is defined as a tropical depression, but once wind speeds exceed that level, the event is considered to be a tropical storm and is given a name from a pre-decided list. Storms become hurricanes once wind speeds reach 74 mph (119 km/h), with hurricanes being subdivided into five categories. Category 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes are classified as major hurricanes.

The hurricane season runs when ocean and atmospheric conditions are most favorable for tropical storms. Tropical storms need warm sea surface temperatures to form and strengthen, as well as little difference in wind speed and direction between the lower and upper levels of the atmosphere — known as vertical wind shear — which enables storms to organize vertically. Peak hurricane activity usually happens in September, when ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions are most optimal. Before June and after November the ocean is generally too cool, and wind shear is higher.

Related: La Niña is dead — what that means for this year's hurricanes and weather

Above-average hurricane activity is predicted this year because of warmer-than-average ocean temperatures and weak wind shear, allowing for more frequent and more powerful storms to form.

This year's Atlantic storms will be named, in order of appearance: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, and Wendy.

NOAA has a 70% confidence in its predictions of this year's storm frequency. Last year, before the 2024 hurricane season, NOAA predicted that there would be 17 to 25 named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes, and four to seven major hurricanes — an even more severe forecast than this year's outlook. However, the season actually resulted in 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.

Hurricane Beryl, which made landfall along the Texas coast in July 2024, was the earliest Atlantic Category 5 hurricane on record, while Hurricane Helene hit the Florida Gulf Coast on Sep. 26 as a Category 4 hurricane, and is considered the deadliest hurricane in the continental U.S. since 2005's Hurricane Katrina.

"As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities," acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm said in the statement. "NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property."

In the Pacific, where the hurricane season also runs from June 1 to November 30, activity is forecast to be lower than average in 2025, with NOAA predicting a 30% chance of below-normal storm activity, a 50% chance of normal activity, and only a 20% chance of above-normal activity. Between one and four named storms are predicted in the central Pacific for the season, where a near-normal season has 4 or 5 tropical storms.

After one of the strongest El Niños on record ended in 2024, meteorologists predicted La Niña — the counterpart to this climate pattern — would follow. Signals of a slowly developing and "unusual" La Niña strengthened over the winter, but began to falter in recent months. By March it was dead.

So what happened — and how might that impact this summer's weather and the coming Atlantic hurricane season?

How will climate change impact ENSO patterns?

No one knows how climate change will affect ENSO patterns, but scientists are concerned about the warming oceans and atmosphere.

"Warmer air holds more water. It's fundamental," Becker said. "That's a factor in why we're seeing some hurricanes deposit unbelievable amounts of rain — it's partly due to the higher moisture capacity of the atmosphere."

Warm waters can extend a hurricane season or fuel storms farther north. Once envisioned as coastal threats, storms are increasingly driving inland. For example, Hurricane Helene devastated Appalachian communities hundreds of miles from the sea in 2024. "You're making a better and bigger sponge, and it gets wrung out somewhere," Di Liberto said. "And communities have to deal with incomprehensible amounts of rainfall and flooding."

However, our understanding of hurricanes is incomplete, Done said. Our observational record extends back less than 160 years — just a blink of geologic time. Scientists who have studied the geologic record of ancient cyclones have found evidence of stronger hurricanes making landfall in the distant past, often tied to periods of climate change.

If the present is the key to the past, the past nods back: Earth has seen worse — and with oceans warming fast, scientists warn it may only be a matter of time before historically unprecedented storms strike again.

Officials have announced that an "unusual" La Niña weather pattern (that was supposed to start last summer) is finally underway. However, it is expected to be weaker and shorter than usual.

La Niña is the cold phase of a natural climate pattern called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which is a pattern of atmospheric and sea temperature changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean that affects global weather and climate.

During a La Niña event, the northern U.S. and Canada typically experience colder and wetter winters, while the southern U.S. becomes warmer and drier, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) . La Niña also tends to increase hurricane activity over the Atlantic.

However, the current La Niña arrived later than expected and didn't have time to gain strength before winter started. The conditions for this "unusual" La Niña appeared in December and are likely to persist through to April, NOAA said in a statement on Thursday (Jan. 9).

"We've been expecting La Niña to show up since last spring," NOAA representatives wrote. "While she's dragged her heels, all the pieces came together this past month."

Related: 2024 was the hottest year on record, and the 1st to breach the 1.5 C global warming limit, data reveals

ENSO is a multi-year cycle that triggers a warm El Niño and then a cold La Niña every two to seven years. These events then usually last up to a year each. An El Niño contributed to record-breaking heat in 2023 and 2024, so researchers expected the La Niña to follow. Researchers aren't sure why this La Niña was slow to develop, but warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in 2024 might have played a role, according to NOAA.

La Niña flowchart

NOAA has a flowchart for determining when a La Niña is officially underway. Firstly, tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures must fall 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (0.5 degrees Celsius) below the long-term average.

Sea surface temperatures have been within 0.9 degrees F of the average since April, but finally went below the threshold for La Niña in December. NOAA computer models predict that the temperatures will stay below the threshold until spring.

"There's a 59% chance La Niña will persist through February–April, followed by a 60% chance of neutral conditions in March–May," the NOAA representatives wrote.

The temperatures must remain below the threshold for five consecutive seasons — any three-month period — for this La Niña to make it into the NOAA's official historical record, which won't happen if the La Niña fizzles out by March to May. However, ENSO events are notoriously difficult to predict.

Scientists will continue to monitor the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures to see how long the La Niña lasts, and investigate the drivers behind this potentially shorter and weaker ENSO event.

"There's a reason our flowchart says 'the next several seasons' instead of providing a specific number: we can make predictions, but it's impossible to know ahead of time exactly how long La Niña conditions will last," NOAA representatives wrote.

Atmospheric ripples from Hurricane Helene spread far north of Florida as the devastating storm made landfall, new NASA images show.

The agency's Atmospheric Waves Experiment (AWE) captured concentric bands of atmospheric gravity waves stretching across the Southeast as the hurricane progressed miles away.

"Like rings of water spreading from a drop in a pond, circular waves from Helene are seen billowing westward from Florida's northwest coast," AWE principal investigator Ludger Scherliess, a physicist at Utah State University, said in a statement.

Atmospheric gravity waves are vertical ripples that move through quiet areas of the atmosphere, dividing the air into peaks and troughs. According to NASA, these waves can be created by large thunderstorms, wind bursts, hurricanes, tornadoes and even tsunamis. (They are different from gravitational waves, which are ripples in the fabric of space-time that result from violent cosmic events, such as black hole collisions.)

Related: Hurricane season 2024: How long it lasts and what to expect

The AWE instrument is mounted on the International Space Station and detects these waves by measuring airglow — a faint light given off by gasses in the mesosphere, the third layer of Earth's atmosphere. The mesosphere ranges from 31 to 53 miles (50 to 85 kilometers) above Earth's surface. Most weather occurs in the first layer of Earth's atmosphere, the troposphere, though cloud tops can rise into the second layer, the stratosphere, in very strong storms. (These are called "overshooting cloud tops.")

AWE started observing in November 2023, and the Helene gravity-wave images are among the first AWE images that NASA has released publicly. One of the project's goals is to help scientists understand how weather on Earth's surface can affect space weather, the disturbances in the upper atmosphere caused by interactions with charged cosmic particles.

Hurricane Helene was a Category 4 storm with winds up to 140 mph (225 km/h) when it made landfall near Perry, Florida. The storm subsequently moved inland, stalling over eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina, where it caused massive flooding. More than 230 people were killed, according to the Associated Press.

Hurricane Milton slammed into the west coast of Florida on October 9, becoming the second powerful hurricane to hit the state in just two weeks.

While most people turned to meteorologists for explanations, a vocal minority remained skeptical, proposing that the hurricanes were engineered, that Florida's weather was being manipulated, or even that it was targeted at Republican voters.

These ideas aren't new. As psychologists, we research the roots of conspiracy theories, and have found they often emerge in the wake of natural disasters. Investigating these theories is especially crucial as extreme weather events are projected to become more severe and frequent.

Related: How strong can hurricanes get?

Conspiracy theories explain important events by attributing them to the secret actions of a small, powerful group. Yet, if we take a step back from this psychological definition, something striking becomes apparent.

If conspiracy theories explain events as the actions of a small group, then conspiracy theories should only apply to events where such a group's influence is plausible.

For example, faking the moon landing would have required NASA to create an elaborate set, costumes, actors, and maintain secrecy. While unlikely, it is conceivable because humans can design sets, make costumes, and act. However, climate-based conspiracy theories don't fit this mould as easily.

Unlike movie sets or staged events, humans don't control the climate in the same direct way. While we can seed individual clouds to encourage rain, for instance, a whole hurricane is simply far too big and too powerful for human technology to have any impact. This makes climate conspiracy theories seem less plausible, as the climate is beyond the direct manipulation that other conspiracy theories depend on.

Why people turn to weather conspiracies

People have a fundamental need to feel safe and secure in their environment. If climate change is real, it poses an existential threat, leading some to reject it in favour of conspiracy theories that preserve their sense of safety.

Additionally, individuals desire a sense of control and agency over their environment. When faced with the uncontrollable nature of climate change, people often embrace conspiracy theories to regain that sense of control. Notably, recent psychological research has shifted focus from macro-level conspiracy beliefs, like climate change, to micro-level beliefs concerning local natural disasters.

The first psychological study of this kind looked at a major tornado outbreak in the U.S. midwest in 2019. Researchers found that people more affected by the outbreak were more likely to believe the tornadoes were controlled by the government. Importantly, this belief was explained by the fact that those affected by the tornadoes felt like they had no control over their own life.

Building on these initial findings, another study asked participants to imagine living in a fictional country called Nebuloria. Half were told that natural disasters might occur soon, prompting them to take precautions for their safety, while the others were told that such disasters were rare and that there was no need to worry.

Participants were then asked about various conspiracy beliefs, such as whether the contrails left by planes Nebuloria were "evidence of weather manipulation". Results showed those in the high-risk scenario were more likely to endorse conspiracy beliefs.

Notably, what explained this increase in conspiracy beliefs was the fact that high-risk participants felt a sense of existential threat. This suggests that when people feel vulnerable due to environmental risks, they turn to conspiracies to regain control, even if the threats are beyond their reach.

A self-perpetuating cycle

It might seem intuitive that if you don't believe in something, you won't act as though it were true. Thus, if you don't believe that climate change is true you are not going to act as if it is. Indeed, a large and growing amount of psychological research bears this out.

The more that people ascribe to climate-related conspiracy beliefs the less likely they are to believe in the scientific consensus of human-made climate change, the less likely they are to have any pro-environmental concern, and the less likely they are to trust in the scientists that produce the evidence.

These beliefs do not remain abstract. The more that people believe in climate conspiracy theories, the less likely they are to take action to mitigate climate change. Research has shown that merely exposing people to climate change conspiracies is sufficient to decrease their desire to sign a petition to support pro-environmental policies.

This has serious implications. First, if people don't believe in climate change, they won't take action, accelerating its progression. Second, the more that climate change accelerates, the more frequent natural disasters become. As we've seen, an increase in natural disasters leads to a rise in conspiracy beliefs, creating a harmful and self-perpetuating cycle.

Research shows that natural disasters can fuel conspiratorial thinking about unrelated events, which harms democratic engagement, public health and social cohesion. In short, climate-based conspiracy theories can have wide-ranging negative effects beyond climate-related matters.

What can be done?

There are reasons to be hopeful that certain interventions that foster analytical thinking or a critical mindset can reduce conspiracy beliefs. For example, exposing people to scientific reasoning that challenged the assumptions behind COVID-19 conspiracies significantly reduced their belief in those conspiracy theories. Also, a better use of resources and skills to cope with natural disasters can reduce conspiracy theories.

If we don't act on climate change, the rise in natural disasters will likely lead to more conspiracy theories. The stakes are high, but with thoughtful interventions, we can break this harmful cycle.

This edited article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Of all the hazards that hurricanes bring, storm surge is the greatest threat to life and property along the coast. It can sweep homes off their foundations, flood riverside communities miles inland, and break up dunes and levees that normally protect coastal areas against storms.

As a hurricane reaches the coast, it pushes a huge volume of ocean water ashore. This is what we call storm surge.

This surge appears as a gradual rise in the water level as the storm approaches. Depending on the size and track of the hurricane, storm surge flooding can last for several hours. It then recedes after the storm passes.

Water level heights during a hurricane can reach 20 feet or more above normal sea level. With powerful waves on top of it, a hurricane's storm surge can cause catastrophic damage.

Related: How strong can hurricanes get?

What determines how high storm surge gets?

Storm surge begins over the open ocean. The strong winds of a hurricane push the ocean waters around and cause water to pile up under the storm. The low air pressure of the storm also plays a small role in lifting the water level. The height and extent of this pile of water depend on the strength and size of the hurricane.

As this pile of water moves toward the coast, other factors can change its height and extent.

The depth of the sea floor is one factor.

If a coastal area has a sea floor that gently slopes away from the coastline, it's more likely to see a higher storm surge than an area with a steeper drop-off. Gentle slopes along the Louisiana and Texas coasts have contributed to some devastating storm surges. Hurricane Katrina's surge in 2005 broke levees and flooded New Orleans. Hurricane Ike's 15- to 17-foot storm surge and waves swept hundreds of homes off Texas' Bolivar Peninsula in 2008. Both were large, powerful storms that hit in vulnerable locations.

The shape of the coastline can also shape the surge. When storm surge enters a bay or river, the geography of the land can act as a funnel, sending the water even higher.

Other factors that shape storm surge

Ocean tides — caused by the gravity of the moon and sun — can also strengthen or weaken the impact of storm surge. So, it's important to know the timing of the local tides compared to the hurricane landfall.

At high tide, the water is already at an elevated height. If landfall happens at high tide, the storm surge will cause even higher water levels and bring more water further inland. The Carolinas saw those effects when Hurricane Isaias hit at close to high tide on Aug. 3, 2020. Isaias brought a storm surge of about 4 feet at Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, but the water level was more than 10 feet above normal.

Sea level rise is another growing concern that influences storm surge.

As water warms, it expands, and that has slowly raised sea level over the past century as global temperatures have risen. Freshwater from melting of ice sheets and glaciers also adds to sea level rise. Together, they elevate the background ocean height. When a hurricane arrives, the higher ocean means storm surge can bring water further inland, to a more dangerous and widespread effect.

This edited article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Back in April and May 2024, various universities and weather agencies predicted there would be more hurricanes in the Atlantic than usual this year. Warm seas meant conditions were perfect for a particularly active season, they said, with somewhere between 15 and 25 named storms.

Yet by mid-September, the typical peak of the hurricane season, only seven storms have been named. Where are the "missing" hurricanes in the Caribbean? To understand what happened, and why the models seemingly got it so wrong, we can't look at the Atlantic in isolation. The key difference this year was unprecedented rain in an unexpected place: the Sahara desert.

The 2024 hurricane season kicked off with a bang: Hurricane Beryl, which made landfall on the island of Carriacou in Grenada on July 1, was the earliest category 5 storm on record. After Beryl, there was a quiet period: an outbreak of Saharan dust meant that the air over the tropical Atlantic was too dry to sustain the moist clouds needed to develop a hurricane. July is generally a less active part of the season, so this is not too unusual: only one storm was named in July between 2021 and 2023.

In early August, Beryl was followed by Hurricanes Debby and Ernesto, but between August 13 and September 3, there were no named storms in the Atlantic at all. That's only happened once before on those dates, back in 1968.

In 2023, the hottest seas on record led to 20 named storms in the Atlantic, the fourth most active hurricane season on record. This year, the sea is just as hot, as predicted by the climate models. However, other factors that inhibited hurricane development were not anticipated as reliably.

From 'waves' in Africa, to Caribbean hurricanes

Between June and September, west Africa typically experiences a monsoon: wet air from the Gulf of Guinea travels northward, bringing rain and thunderstorms to the transitional region between the rainforests of central Africa and the Sahara — an area known as the Sahel. This creates a stark contrast in land temperatures between the wet, green Sahel, and the dry desert to its north, which in turn allows a high-altitude "atmospheric jet" to form.

Smaller "waves" can spin off from this jet. We call them African easterly waves, since they originate in the east and move westward over Africa, and these are linked to large thunderstorms and low pressures. Strong easterly waves can move off the coast of Africa and create areas of low pressure and rotating air in the Atlantic, which can become hurricanes. It is estimated that around 60% of major Atlantic storms can be traced back to these waves.

The waves move northwards

This year, an exceptionally warm sea allowed moist air to travel further north over west Africa which brought unprecedented rainfall to the Sahara. Northern Chad has experienced weeks of torrential rain, for instance, while Morocco and Algeria have been hit by huge floods, with some areas receiving a year’s worth of rain in just two days.

Rainfall across Africa in early September 2024:

With the moist monsoon air reaching further north than usual, easterly waves are emerging into the ocean via Mauritania or Western Sahara rather than Senegal or the Gambia. There, the ocean is cooler, and, as the waves rotate, they bring in cooler, drier air from the north, so there is not as much energy for waves to turn into storms.

Effectively, if these waves are the seeds of major storms then they have been planted in the wrong soil: unable to receive the warmth and moisture they need to develop into hurricanes.

Other factors have also been at play, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a global pattern of stormy weather which moves eastward around the globe. Over the past few months, the oscillation has been in a phase which does not favour tropical cyclone development. The upper atmosphere has also been too warm for storms to form, and the winds there are stronger than usual, causing some potential tropical cyclones to collapse.

State-of-the-art climate models suggest that in a warming climate, the west African monsoon may become wetter and shift further northwards, potentially resulting in similarly quiet hurricane seasons in future. However, future projections of rainfall in Africa can be somewhat uncertain, and more research could be essential not only to forecast extreme weather in the region itself, but also to understand changes downstream.

However, things may soon be back to normal as the monsoon retreats southward and the sea surface keeps heating up (ocean temperatures typically peak in October), providing the necessary moisture and heat. While the typical season for easterly waves is nearing its end, storms could continue to form from disturbances in the Caribbean. Researchers at Colorado State University, widely considered some of the most accurate hurricane forecasters, have estimated a 50% chance of a return to normal hurricane activity in the next two weeks.

While we have been fortunate to have a lull in storms in the 2024 season, it is not over yet. If tropical cyclones do develop, with such high sea surface temperatures, it is possible that they will intensify rapidly to become high-impact storms. Though it was months ago, Hurricane Beryl has been a reminder that even in a quiet season, hurricanes can still do catastrophic damage.

This edited article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Severe turbulence, record rainfall, killer heatwaves and raging wildfires to name but a few: is it just me, or is "Is Earth's weather getting weirder?" The answer? Yes. Well, sort of. 

These weather events have happened in the past, but the problem is nowadays they're happening more frequently and to a far greater extent. 

What's causing this uptick in "global weirding" and is there anything we can do about it? Space.com spoke with a leading climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe to learn more about this strange surge in weird weather events and what it means for us.

Related: 'The last 12 months have broken records like never before': Earth exceeds 1.5 C warming every month for entire year

It's no secret that Earth's climate has changed dramatically over its 4.5 billion-year history. Nature has seen both warmer and colder conditions before. But it is the current rate of change that is putting the living world at risk.

"Each of us, wherever we live, are experiencing the impacts of climate change today," climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe told Space.com in an interview. 

Some of us might not even be aware of the impacts climate change is having on our everyday lives. From how more extreme weather events are causing home insurance rates to rise, or how our food is becoming less nutritious and drinking water more scarce, whether we like it or not, we are all affected by climate change.

One significant direct effect of climate change is the upturn of extreme weather events that put lives at risk and have a huge economic impact. Extreme weather events attributable to climate change cost the world $143 billion USD per year, the majority of which (63%) is due to loss of human lives, according to a research paper published in the Journal Nature in 2023. 

But just how is Earth's weather getting weirder?

Heat waves

Let's begin with one of the more obvious effects of climate change: heat waves. As the world gets warmer, heat waves are not only becoming more frequent but also much more intense. 

The recent heat wave along the U.S. West Coast saw Las Vegas hit its all-time temperature record of 120 degrees Fahrenheit (49 degrees Celsius). Approximately 36 million people were exposed to an excessive warning during the extreme heatwave with temperatures running as much as 20 degrees above average for this time of year.

In Saudi Arabia, over 1,300 people died during the annual Hajj pilgrimage that coincided with an exceptional heatwave. Temperatures of 125 degrees Fahrenheit (52 degrees Celsius) were reported at the Grand Mosque in Mecca, according to the BBC. Greece has just experienced the earliest heatwave recorded in the country, and several tourists died, including British TV and radio presenter Michael Mosley. Meanwhile, northern India is reeling from the most severe heat waves it has ever seen with reported temperatures of 120 degrees Fahrenheit (49 degrees Celsius). Summers in India are notoriously hot and humid, but this year's heat waves have been longer, more intense and far more frequent, according to the BBC. 

Heat waves occur when a high-pressure atmospheric system moves in and pushes warm air down toward the ground. The trouble we are currently facing is that the high-pressure systems are being reinforced as the planet warms, catalyzing a vicious cycle. 

"The warmer it is, the stronger the high-pressure system, and the stronger the high-pressure system, the warmer it is," Hayhoe explained. 

Heavy rainfall and flash floods

Another by-product of a warmer world is that a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor. Wherever moisture-laden air passes over land or converges into a storm system, it can produce more severe precipitation, for example, heavier rain and snow storms.

Atmospheric rivers are one of the big players when it comes to heavy precipitation events. An atmospheric river is a river of moisture in the sky. When one of these approaches a mountain, the air is forced to rise. As it does, the air cools and the water condenses and falls out as rain.

"So what's happening is atmospheric rivers are getting stronger and bigger because they're picking up a lot more water vapor. After all, the warmer it is, the more water evaporates from the ocean." Hayhoe continued.

During the 2023/2024 fall and winter seasons, rainfall in the U.K. and Ireland was about 20% heavier due to human-induced climate change, according to the World Weather Attribution.

This year, downpours and floods have already wreaked havoc around the world, and it doesn't look like stopping anytime soon. In May a catastrophic flood struck Afghanistan, killing over 300 people in the provinces of Baghlan, Takhar and Badakhshan. In June, heavy rain swept across Switzerland, France and Italy causing landslides and torrential floods, at least seven people are reported to have been killed. In India, Nepal and Bangladesh large-scale flooding is not uncommon during the monsoon season but this year's abnormally early heavy rainfall has killed more than 40 people so far.

Hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones

Hurricanes and typhoons are a type of weather phenomenon known as tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclone is an overarching term used to describe a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed low-level circulation, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Once wind speeds reach 74 miles per hour or higher, a tropical cyclone is classified as a hurricane, typhoon or tropical cyclone depending on where the storm originates. The term hurricane is used in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. The term typhoon is used for a disturbance in the Northwest Pacific, while the generic tropical cyclone term is used in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. 

No matter their name, these storms are unique in that they're powered by warm ocean water. 

The planet's oceans are particularly vulnerable to climate change and our warming world. "90% of the extra heat being trapped inside the climate system is going into the ocean, not the atmosphere," Hayhoe explained. This means that there is a lot of energy to power stronger storms. As such, a far greater proportion of named storms are further intensifying and developing into hurricanes, typhoons and tropical cyclones. 

"The storms are not only there intensifying faster, they're moving more slowly. So they're sitting over you for longer and they're dumping much more rain," Hayhoe continued. 

Hurricane Harvey, which hit the U.S. in 2017, was the first significant hurricane to hit the U.S. where scientists could calculate how much of an effect climate change had on the event. Scientists found that climate change made the rainfall over Houston, Texas, during the hurricane event, three times more likely and 15% more intense.  

Wildfires

Another significant effect of climate change is a rise in how often severe wildfires occur. Wildfires have destroyed over 1.7 million acres of land during the first three months of 2024 in the U.S. alone, according to the Independent.

Though a majority of wildfires in heavily populated areas like the U.S. are due to accidental human ignition, they are exacerbated by climate change, specifically hotter, drier weather. 

"Imagine that you accidentally drop a match into a pile of green wet wood. What happens? Not much, imagine if there's snow around the wood, nothing happens" Hayhoe explains "Now imagine you drop that match into a pile of bone dry wood that's been baking in extreme heat for weeks, and even months," Hayhoe continues.

"That's why we see that the area burned by wildfires and the number of large wildfires is increasing."

Wildfire seasons are also coming earlier and lasting longer. For example, this year's wildfire season in Canada began in February, just like it did last year. In the past, however, it wouldn't start until March.

Last year (2023), Canada witnessed a fire season like no other, with approximately 45 million acres burned by over 6,500 fires. To put this into perspective, the total area burned in 2023 was eight times higher than the 40-year average, according to a report by the BBC.

Unfortunately, this devastating scenario will become more common due to climate change.

Unlike U.S. wildfires, most of the wildfires in the northern forests, like the ones observed in Canada, are caused by lightning strikes, not humans. Scientists predict an increase in lightning frequency by 11-31% for every degree of global warming, according to the BBC's report. This is because warmer air can hold more moisture, about 7% more moisture per 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) of warming. As moisture is a key ingredient in thunderstorm development, the more moisture in the air, the higher the chance of thunderstorms and accompanying lightning strikes.

Air turbulence

In May 2024, a Singapore Airlines flight encountered a severe bout of turbulence which left one person dead from a suspected heart attack and several others badly injured. The same month, a Qatar Airways flight from Doha to Ireland endured strong turbulence over Turkey, leaving 12 people injured. In July 2024, dozens were injured after an Air Europa flight was hit by severe turbulence; the flight from Spain to Uruguay had to make an emerging landing in Brazil. 

A bit of turbulence is par for the course for air travelers. But a recent uptick in severe incidents has left people wondering whether climate change is to blame. 

It's a difficult one to pin directly onto climate change but there is evidence to support that it could be increasing the risk of turbulence, according to the BBC.

Two main types of air turbulence affect air travel, one is from thunderstorms and the other is called "clear air" turbulence.

Turbulence caused by thunderstorms is likely to increase because the frequency of thunderstorms is increasing due to climate change, as previously discussed. But this type of turbulence is less problematic for pilots, as it is linked to storms and therefore easier to predict. 

The other type, "clear air" turbulence, also called "invisible turbulence" is highly unpredictable and is one of the largest causes of weather-related aviation incidents. It is expected to worsen with climate change, and under specific climate change scenarios, it could become four times more frequent by 2050 compared to historical levels.

All hope is not lost

"Wherever we look around the world, we see that these weather events are getting supersized by climate change, and they're putting us all at risk," Hayhoe explains.

Though it may be hard to find any positives in a sea of negative climate change news, rest assured that the tides are changing. People are increasingly recognizing the impacts and severity of climate change. However, it remains uncertain if this awareness is spreading quickly enough. What is clear is that we all share responsibility for climate change and can take steps to mitigate it.

Without action, there is no hope. 

What you can do to help

If you're like me and often feel overwhelmed by the negative effects of climate change while also thinking "How can I help, I'm just one person?" Hayhoe has laid out a great list of how individuals can help catalyze change for the better and feel like they are making a difference. 

• Start a conversation about why it matters, and what people can do. "That's why I do my newsletter every week," Hayhoe explains. Every week Hayhoe provides a clear-eyed and hopeful look at climate science and solutions. 
•  Join a climate action group. Don't be alone, join one in your town, in your city, at your school, at your church, wherever it is. And if you don't have one, think about setting one up, Friends of the Earth have some useful tips on how to start.  
• Consider where you keep your money. "Where we bank, the credit card we use, where we have our pension or retirement, if it's invested in fossil fuels, it's perpetuating the system," Hayhoe explains. We should be looking at banks that invest in clean energy and environmentally friendly enterprises like clean energy, that way we are actively contributing towards a better world with our own money.  
• Spark ideas for change wherever you work or wherever you go to school. "That's using your voice specifically, saying why don't we do this together as a business or an organization?" Hayhoe says. 
• Hold politicians accountable. Hayhoe explains that this doesn't only mean voting but also using your voice to tell them why it matters. "Studies have shown that politicians consistently underestimate how concerned their constituents are because they don't hear from them enough," says Hayhoe. 
• Reduce your personal footprint. The environmental charity World Wildlife Fund has some useful resources on how you can reduce your carbon footprint, from changing the way you travel to what you eat.  

Originally posted on Space.com.

In this 2017 satellite photo, a trio of hurricanes — including one of the most powerful tropical storms of the last decade — formed a near-perfect line as they marched through "hurricane alley." Some of the swirling storms, which initially appear to be in the wrong order, later made landfall in the U.S. and Mexico.

The three hurricanes — Katia (left), Irma (center) and Jose (right) — were spotted by the Suomi NPP weather satellite, which is co-run by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). While they appear to be following one another, the storms are each traveling in a different direction: Katia made landfall in Mexico on Sept. 9; Irma struck Florida on Sept. 10; and Jose eventually dissipated off the New England coast on Sept. 22.     

Most Atlantic hurricanes form in the same expanse of water between Northwest Africa and the Gulf of Mexico, dubbed hurricane alley. However, it's rare to see so many of them so close together — and forming such a regimented line, according to NASA's Earth Observatory.  

Major Atlantic storms are named alphabetically based on the order they appear in each year's hurricane season. So it might seem strange that Katia is in front of both Irma and Jose in the queue to make landfall.

However, the storms did not form in the order they appear in the image. Irma formed first, on Aug. 30 near Africa's Cape Verde islands. Jose appeared next on Sept. 5 in the mid-Atlantic, not far from where it is in the photo. Katia also formed on Sept. 5, slightly after Jose, but was birthed in Mexico's Bay of Campeche, which is why it is closest to land in the photo.

Related: 12 amazing images of Earth from space

Hurricane Irma was the most destructive of the three storms. This powerful Category 5 storm triggered storm surges up to 8 feet (2.5 meters) high, unleashing as much as 20 inches (50 centimeters) of rain in certain areas and spawning at least five separate tornadoes, according to the National Weather Center. One person was killed directly by its winds, which reached a maximum speed of 130 mph (210 km/h), while up to 33 people were killed indirectly by the storm.

At the time, it was reported that Hurricane Irma had the greatest accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) — the total amount of wind energy generated throughout the life of a tropical cyclone  — of any tropical storm on global record, according to NASA's Earth Observatory. However, calculations later downgraded its power. 

The all-time ACE record was recently broken in 2023 by Cyclone Freddy, which appeared in the Indian Ocean and made landfall three separate times, decimating parts of Madagascar and Mozambique. 

Research has shown that rising ocean temperatures triggered by human-caused climate change have likely made hurricanes more powerful on average. Some experts believe we may have to create a new sixth hurricane category to keep track of future storms.

The upcoming 2024 season is expected to be particularly active, with up to 25 named storms predicted, due to record-breaking surface temperatures caused by the recent El Niño event. This year's season has already started with a bang thanks to Hurricane Beryl, which formed earlier in the year than any other Category 5 hurricane on record.

El Niño is likely to give way soon, ushering in a quick switch to its opposite atmospheric and ocean pattern, La Niña. 

For the U.S., this climatological flip-flop will likely mean a greater risk of major hurricanes in the Atlantic as well as areas of drier-than-usual weather in the southern portions of the country. Globally, La Niña usually leads to declining temperatures, but the lag in when the effects take place means that 2024 will likely still be a top-five year for temperature in climate history, said Tom Di Liberto, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 

"All signs suggest that 2024 is going to be another warm year," Di Liberto told Live Science. 

El Niño and La Niña describe opposing patterns in the trade winds that encircle the equator, blowing west from South America toward Asia. In a neutral year, when neither pattern is in play, these trade winds push warm water westward, which drives cool ocean water up from the depths to replace it. 

When El Niño is in play, the trade winds weaken, so the eastern Pacific, along the west coast of North and South America, stays warmer. The effect, according to NOAA, is that the jet stream moves southward, drying Canada and the northern U.S. but bringing moisture to the southern portions of the U.S. 

Related: Why don't hurricanes form at the equator?

In a La Niña year, the trade winds strengthen, pushing warm water toward Asia and increasing the upwelling of cold water off the Pacific coast of the Americas. The jet stream moves northward, drying the Southwest and Southeast and bringing wetter weather to the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes. 

The El Niño pattern has officially been active since June 2023, but NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now reports that the pattern is weakening, with an 85% chance of a switch to neutral conditions before June. La Niña is then expected to roar back, with a 60% chance of La Niña conditions between June and August, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reports.

"When it comes to El Niños of this strength, moderate to strong, it"s not uncommon to see these events end rapidly and then shift into La Niña rapidly," Di Liberto said. 

Ocean measurements currently show warm surface temperatures in the Pacific, Di Liberto said, but below-average cold water beneath. Once that cold water hits the surface, the switch will happen quickly, he said. 

The flip from El Niño to La Niña raises the risk of a strong upcoming hurricane season, said Alex DesRosiers, a doctoral candidate in atmospheric science at Colorado State University. During El Niño, rising heat from the eastern Pacific flows into the upper atmosphere, leading to stronger winds at high altitudes. This creates vertical wind shear — a difference in wind speed and direction at the surface versus higher in the atmosphere. And vertical wind shear, DesRosiers told Live Science, "can really act to tear apart hurricanes as they try to form." 

During La Niña, the upper atmosphere winds calm, reducing wind shear. This allows the convection of warm, moist air from the ocean surface to form big storms. 

"As we move into La Niña, the atmosphere becomes more supportive of allowing storms to bubble up and intensify," DesRosiers said. 

As a result of the expected La Niña and current extremely warm Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures, CSU's Tropical Weather & Climate Research team is currently predicting a very active Atlantic hurricane season, with a forecast of 23 named storms (versus the average of 14.4) and five hurricanes of Category 3 or higher (versus the average of 3.2). This year may look similar to 2010 and 2020, both of which were busy storm seasons, although it's not guaranteed that strong storms will impact land, DesRosiers said. 

All of these climatic patterns are taking place against a backdrop of rising ocean and surface temperatures. So, while La Niña usually brings cooler-than-average temperatures to the northern U.S., this region could still experience a scorching summer due to the background effects of climate change, Di Liberto said. 

Similarly, although 2023 was an El Niño year, which should suppress hurricanes, it saw an above-average hurricane season, DesRosiers said. This busy storm season might be due, in part, to 2023 being the warmest year on record. 

"With an Atlantic that is this warm," he said, "we're kind of in uncharted territory." 

Hurricane Idalia has reached northern Florida and continues to batter the state with torrential rain and howling winds, despite dropping from a Category 4 to a Category 2 storm.

Idalia made landfall in Florida's Big Bend region around 7:45 a.m. local time on Wednesday (Aug. 30), according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm first hit the west of Cuba on Monday and Tuesday (Aug. 28 and 29), where it destroyed homes and flooded villages on the island. It then intensified over the Gulf of Mexico and traveled north with sustained winds of 130 mph (210 km/h) and gusts up to 160 mph (260 km/h), before weakening to a Category 3 storm as it reached the Florida coast. At least two people have died in crashes, the Washington Post reported.

Hurricane Idalia dropped to a Category 2 storm an hour after making landfall near Keaton Beach, about 75 miles (120 kilometers) southeast of Tallahassee. 

Off-the-charts sea temperatures likely fueled Hurricane Idalia — the most powerful storm to ever strike the Big Bend region, which extends from the top of the peninsula to the west of Florida.

The storm's "rapid intensification is definitely feeding off that warmth that we know is there," Kristen Corbosiero, an associate professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the University of Albany, told AP News.

Related: Which hurricane caused the most damage? 

Ocean temperatures this year have broken every record since satellite measurements began, especially in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricanes draw energy from warm waters, and experts warned that Florida's bathtub conditions would likely strengthen storms and hurricanes coming the state's way.

These sizzling sea temperatures are being driven by a combination of human-caused climate change and an El Niño event, which is forecasted to substantially exceed the last strong event in early 2016.

Idalia rode northward on pools of warm, deep water that carried the storm into the Gulf of Mexico, Corbosiero said. Deep water is usually colder than the top layers, and storms can stall themselves by churning these currents up to the surface. But these deep waters may not be as cold as they have been in other years, and Florida's west coast is not deep enough for them to cool down significantly, experts told AP News.

Another factor that may have powered flooding from Idalia is a rare blue supermoon rising Wednesday, which may raise tides above normal and boost seawater surging over the coastline. Supermoons intensify the gravitational pull on Earth, which may contribute to worse tidal flooding brought by the hurricane across Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

"I would say the timing is pretty bad for this one," Brian Haines, a meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service office in Charleston, South Carolina, told AP News.

Idalia's destructive advance is likely to be felt through Thursday (Aug. 31), with 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) of rain predicted in some isolated areas, according to the NHC.

This year's El Niño may drive ocean temperatures to "substantially exceed" those recorded during the last strong event in early 2016, scientists have warned.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) latest El Niño update also says there is a more than 95% chance the event will last through to February 2024, with far-reaching climate impacts.

"El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter," NOAA staff wrote in the update. "Our global climate models are predicting that the warmer-than-average Pacific ocean conditions will not only last through the winter, but continue to increase."

Scientists officially announced the onset of El Niño in early June. El Niño is an ocean-warming event that typically occurs every two to seven years in the central and eastern Pacific, driving air temperatures up around the globe.

Its strongest climate impacts are usually felt during the Northern Hemisphere's winter and early spring, bringing more rain and storms across the southern U.S., southeastern South America, the Horn of Africa and eastern Asia. In other parts of the world, such as southeastern Africa and Indonesia, El Niño leads to drier conditions and may increase the risk of drought.

Related: Florida waters now 'bona fide bathtub conditions' as heat dome engulfs state

To track El Niño's progress, scientists measured sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean. Abnormally high temperatures seem to confirm early predictions that this year's event could be a big one. Atmospheric conditions are also consistent with a long-lasting El Niño, according to NOAA.

"El Niño is a coupled phenomenon, meaning the changes we see in the ocean surface temperatures must be matched by changes in the atmospheric patterns above the tropical Pacific," the update said. More rain and clouds over the central Pacific, as well as weak pressure in the east and reduced trade wind activity in the west, suggest "the system is engaged and that these conditions will last through the winter," staff added.

Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific exceeded the long-term average for 1991 to 2020 by 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) throughout the month of July. Temperatures from May to July — a three-month average called the Oceanic Niño Index — were also 1.4 F (0.8 C) higher than usual and marked the second warmer-than-average Oceanic Niño Index in a row.

"We need to see five consecutive three-month averages above this threshold before these periods will be considered a historical 'El Niño episode,'" the update said. "Two is a good start."

There is "a good chance" the Oceanic Niño Index will match or exceed the threshold for a "strong" El Niño, the update added.

And forecasters are now confident the event will remain strong through to next year, although this doesn't necessarily equate to strong impacts locally, they noted

El Niño affects global weather patterns, as well as the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons. The event usually dampens hurricanes over the Atlantic Ocean, but this year's sizzling water temperatures could mitigate this dampening effect , according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

While a hurricane update in May predicted a 30% chance of higher activity over the Atlantic, the latest forecast said there is a 60% chance of an "above normal season," with up to 21 named storms and five major hurricanes.

Coastal waters around Florida have reached alarming temperatures of 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) with no sign of cooling off anytime soon, experts say.

The Sunshine State is in the midst of its hottest year in modern history, with temperatures over land averaging in the mid 90s F (35 C) — 3 to 5 F (1.7 to 2.8 C) above normal for this time of year. Ocean waters have absorbed much of this heat, causing sea temperatures to soar to record highs, which could spell trouble for marine ecosystems and strengthen storms and hurricanes.

"It's an astounding, prolonged heat wave even for a place that's no stranger to sultry weather," Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami's School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, told the Washington Post. "It's not something we like to see near land simply because it would allow a storm to maintain a high intensity right up to landfall or rapidly intensify as it approaches landfall." 

Related: Heat waves are hitting the deep ocean floor, with potentially catastrophic results 

The marine heat wave has hit at a time when the water is already warm, "bringing it up to bona fide bathtub conditions that we rarely see," he added.

Waters off Florida typically reach temperatures in the high 80s F (31 C) in July, said Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist and climate specialist at the television station WFLA-TV in Tampa. But temperatures this year are "boiling," he wrote on Twitter on Monday (July 10). 

The current bath-like conditions are consistent with a "severe" marine heat wave, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The agency defines marine heat waves as "prolonged periods of anomalously high sea surface temperature" that can impact "a broad range of marine life."

This includes coral bleaching, as reefs are "extremely sensitive to slight changes (just a few degrees) in water [temperature]," Berardelli wrote. NOAA's Coral Reef Watch has designted an "Alert Level 1" area off the coast of Florida — the second-highest warning on the scale — with "significant bleaching likely."

The spike in ocean heat in Florida is partly attributable to unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico and to record-breaking sea surface temperatures worldwide. "Very, very light" and "inconsistent" winds over the state have also played a role, Berardelli noted.

"We have a very off weather pattern this summer, and sea surface [temperatures] respond to that," he wrote. While "a nice breeze" typically sweeps over Florida from the southeast this time of year, the state has seen near-windless conditions — and when there is wind, it has brought warmer air from the Gulf of Mexico in the west, Berardelli added.

These conditions mean there has been little to no mixing of the sun-exposed top layer of water with colder waters below.

Another factor contributing to the marine heat wave could be low rainfall over the Floridian peninsula, which usually acts to cool the ocean surface, Berardelli wrote.

The unprecedented water temperatures are intensifying the heat wave on land, which is predicted to rage on for at least another week. Increased ocean warmth raises humidity and keeps air temperatures high during the night. As a result, the state has recorded heat indexes — which factor in humidity to measure how hot the air feels — topping 110 F (43 C).

In June, NOAA reported that 40% of the world's oceans were facing marine heat waves, and this record-breaking percentage is predicted to increase to 50% by September. The effects are tied to climate change compounded by an ongoing El Niño event, with oceans absorbing 90% of the extra heat in the climate system. 

The fierce winds of a hurricane are known as tropical cyclones in some parts of the world, so you might expect them to sweep across the entire tropics. But there's one area of the tropics where hurricanes almost never form: the equator. 

Historical maps of the locations of tropical cyclones (also known as typhoons and hurricanes, depending on the location) would reveal that "it is extremely rare for them to form within a few degrees of the equator," Gary Barnes, a meteorologist who's now retired from the University of Hawaii, told Live Science. (One degree of latitude covers about 69 miles, or 111 kilometers.)

But why aren't there hurricanes at the equator?

The reason is linked to why tropical cyclones rotate, which is due to Earth's spin. At the equator, even when the air is calm, the planet and the atmosphere above it are actually moving at over 1,000 mph (1,600 km/h), Barnes said. This movement follows Earth's direction of spin from west to east.

Related: How many satellites orbit Earth? 

Earth's circumference is largest at the equator. This means anything standing on the equator is moving faster eastward than anything lying away from the equator — anything on the equator is traveling a greater distance than anything north or south on Earth's surface in the same amount of time.

If air moves north from the equator, it will also still flow quickly eastward compared with its new surroundings. This means air traveling north from the equator will appear to veer right. In contrast, air flowing south from the equator will appear to stray left.

This phenomenon, known as the Coriolis effect, helps control the direction in which tropical cyclones spin. In the Northern Hemisphere, rightward-turning air will create a counterclockwise spinning motion, and the opposite will occur in the Southern Hemisphere.

"Hurricanes collect rotation from the environment around them," Paul Roundy, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Albany in New York, told Live Science. 

This apparent turning of the wind "is very weak near the equator but becomes much stronger as latitude increases," Barnes said. This is why tropical cyclones only rarely form near the equator — higher latitudes have faster-spinning winds to help drive tropical cyclone growth.

Still, "there are odd exceptions," Barnes noted. For instance, in 2001 the South China Sea, Tropical Cyclone Vamei "intensified within 2 degrees of the equator, but the nascent circulation actually formed earlier, farther away from the equator," he said. Scientists think winds interacting with island terrain in the Indonesian archipelago may have generated the rotation that gave rise to Vamei, he said.

If a tropical cyclone were to cross the equator, "it would begin ingesting air rotating in the opposite direction," Roundy said. Barnes noted that this would likely drive the storm to weaken and collapse.

However, "it's conceivable that a storm could cross the equator some small distance, since the opposing rotation remains fairly small close to the equator," Roundy said. "It is probably not possible for a tropical cyclone to cross several degrees of latitude into the opposite hemisphere."

Climate change "does not significantly affect the rotation of the Earth, so it won't directly impact the chances of a hurricane crossing the equator," Roundy noted. "However, if rare storms at low latitude were able to achieve higher intensities, if they happened to move toward the equatorial region, they might better maintain there. Climate change might increase the strength of the strongest storms."

A super-powered cyclone named "Freddy" has likely broken a number of mindblowing records since it formed in early February. The monstrous storm has crossed the Indian Ocean and made landfall three separate times, and may be the most energetic and long-lasting storm ever recorded.

Freddy was first named on Feb. 6 after forming off the north Australian coast. Since then, it has traveled more than 5,000 miles (8,000 kilometers) across the southern Indian Ocean to southeast Africa, where it finally appears to be dying down, according to the World Meteorological Association (WMA).

After damaging infrastructure on the islands of Mauritius and Réunion, which both avoided a direct hit, Freddy first made landfall on Feb. 21 as it plowed across the island nation of Madagascar. From there, the storm made landfall at Mozambique on Feb. 23 before briefly heading back out to sea, where it narrowly missed Madagascar again before turning around once more to hit Mozambique again on March 11, along with Malawi and Zimbabwe.

At least 148 people have been killed by Freddy and another 19 are missing, with death tolls likely to rise, according to the United Nations' Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). 

Related: Bermuda's hurricanes are twice as strong as they were six decades ago

The cyclone dumped a mind-boggling amount of rain on land, leading to mudslides and flooding that have displaced tens of thousands and worsened a cholera outbreak in Malawi. Southern Mozambique received more than double its annual rainfall duringFreddy's landfalls, and Malawi received around 1.6 feet (0.5 meter) of rain in just 72 hours, according to WMA. 

The cyclone has now moved back out to sea, where it is expected to finally dissipate.

Record-breaker

Though this still needs to be confirmed with storm data, Freddy is likely the longest-lived tropical cyclone on record, having lasted for at least 35 days. The previous record was set by Typhoon John, which whirled across the Pacific for 31 days in 1994. (Cyclones, which form in the southern hemisphere; hurricanes, which form in the Atlantic Ocean; and typhoons, which form in the Pacific Ocean, are collectively known as "tropical cyclones.")

Freddy has also released an astonishing amount of energy during its long life. Scientists measure this using the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index, which tracks wind speed data over time. By Feb. 23, Freddy already had an ACE index of 66, making it the most powerful cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 

By March 12, Freddy had reached an ACE index of 86, The Washington Post reported. If confirmed, that would make it the most energetic tropical cyclone ever recorded on Earth. The current record holder was Hurricane Ioke in 2006, which had an ACE index of 85.2. 

Why has Freddy lasted so long? 

Freddy has lasted so long because it has undergone several periods of restrengthening, where surrounding weather fronts strengthen wind speeds after they initially die down. Freddy has undergone at least four restrengthening events, which is the most ever seen in a tropical cyclone, according to NOAA. Further research will be needed to determine why this happened. 

NOAA experts also think that La Niña, an atmospheric phenomenon that cools large regions of Earth's oceans, could have played a role. The last two storms to take a similar path to Freddy across the Indian Ocean occurred in 2000, when there was a rare triple-dip La Niña that lasted three years. The current La Niña is also in its third year.

Experts suspect that human-caused climate change has played a role in strengthening the storm, although it is too early to say exactly how, according to WMA. 

It's undeniable: Earth's climate is warming dramatically, and it is wreaking havoc on animals, plants and humans. And if people don't curb greenhouse gas emissions substantially — and fast — we could be barreling toward an even scarier future. From zombie viruses awakening to polar bears dumpster-diving, here are 10 signs Earth's climate is out of control.

1. Zombie viruses wake up

Zombie viruses are being revived from permafrost. Many of these ancient microbes have been locked away in the frozen ground in Siberia for tens of thousands of years, but now, these viruses are waking up as a result of Arctic melting. Researchers have unearthed 13 viruses from Siberia that were viable even after centuries in deep freeze. Could they infect people? These particular ones infect only amoebas, but their viability raises the risk that as further permafrost melt plagues the region, one of these ancient monsters could pose a threat to humans, scientists say.

2. Dramatic sea level rise

It's one of the best-known signs of a climate off the rails, and one of the scariest: sea level rise. Coastlines along the U.S. could rise an average of 12 inches (30 centimeters) by 2050, scientists say. Average sea level rise will be bigger on the East Coast than on the West Coast, and low-lying Eastern cities could be in especially big trouble (sorry, Miami).

3. Disappearing glaciers

Yellowstone and Yosemite, two of the most iconic national parks in the U.S., could completely lose their glaciers by 2050, a U.N. report has concluded. The changes aren't just about pretty photo ops; these icy regions provide crucial fresh water for local communities. By the end of the century, half of the world's ice cover could vanish if we don't reduce our emissions, the report found. Even if we tighten our belts on emissions significantly, nearly a third of these glaciers could disappear.

4. Climate chaos

Earth's climate may become chaotic, physicists have predicted. Unchecked greenhouse gas emissions will not only warm the planet; they will make weather patterns more erratic and unpredictable. In the best-case scenario, Earth stabilizes at a new, warmer temperature. But in the worst case, seasons fluctuate wildly from year to year and periods of hot and cold follow each other much more quickly than they do now.

5. Dumpster-diving polar bears

Polar bears are now being forced to eat garbage and dirty diapers, thanks to a huge loss of their prime fishing real estate: sea ice. With less stable sea ice to trawl for seals, the Arctic beasts are increasingly foraging for food in landfills and garbage dumps on the edges of towns. With interactions with humans increasing, some polar bears are being shot.

6. Worse weather

Forget about a distant future with a chaotic climate; the weather is already getting worse thanks to climate change. A variety of studies have shown that the hots will get hotter, the colder places will get colder, droughts and flooding will be more severe, and hurricanes will have higher wind speeds and moisture. As if that weren't bad enough, swings between weather patterns will be more dramatic and unpredictable. The only way to mitigate this? Dramatically reduce our carbon emissions.

7. Penguin populations on the rocks

Emperor penguins are now threatened, thanks to climate change. The best-dressed birds have joined the ranks of "threatened species," and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has proposed protecting emperor penguins under the Endangered Species Act. The biggest penguin species is at risk for the same reason polar bears are struggling: stunning losses of sea ice. Up to 70% of emperor penguin breeding colonies could vanish by 2050 if sea ice loss continues at the current rate.

8. A sixth mass extinction

Earth is barreling toward its sixth mass extinction. Five other times in Earth's history, vast swaths of life on the planet have died off in a short period of a few million years. Our planet's species aren't yet dying off at rates to qualify for a mass extinction, but we are inching toward it. On average, the "background rate" of extinction sees 5% to 10% of animal species disappear every million years. A major extinction occurs when 60% of species and 35% of genera vanish. The current rate of extinction is increasing but still within the normal range. However, once temperatures are 16.2 degrees Fahrenheit (9 degrees Celsius) above their current average, which scientists estimate would not happen until 2500, Earth would enter major mass extinction territory.

9. Point of no return

We may be much closer to the climate "point of no return" than we previously thought. Tipping points beyond which the climate begins irreversibly breaking down could be reached at much lower temperatures than past models suggested. There are 16 major tipping points, and several — including the melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the reduction in Arctic permafrost, the death of tropical coral reefs and the failure of a key ocean current in the Labrador Sea — are in the "danger zone." All tipping points will be reached if Earth's temperature rises 2.7 F (1.5 C) above preindustrial levels. Earth is already 2 F (1.1 C) above that baseline and is likely to reach 3.6 to 5.4 F (2 to 3 C) above preindustrial levels before stabilizing.

10. Doomsday glacier at risk

The Thwaites Glacier, more ominously nicknamed the "Doomsday Glacier," is teetering much closer to collapse than we thought. Thwaites is a Florida-size hunk of ice in West Antarctica. Its total liquidation could raise sea levels by 3 to 10 feet (0.9 to 3 m). A new map shows that the glacier is "hanging on by its fingernails" to a bumpy ridge on the seafloor. But if it gets detached from this ridge, the current rate of warming would predict a much higher rate of melt.

With Cuba and Florida left reeling after Hurricane Ian, which made landfall in September 2022 and was one of the region's most powerful and destructive storms in decades, it is tempting to attribute the carnage of yet another deadly hurricane season to climate change. But is climate change the culprit? Recent studies have linked climate change to environmental conditions that fuel hurricane season, but the connection between global warming and individual hurricanes is far from settled science. 

While there is overwhelming evidence that human activities have directly caused sea levels to rise and the planet to get warmer — both of which are factors that make hurricanes deadlier — it remains unclear if climate change is fueling a significant increase in the number of hurricanes or intensifying tropical storms that make landfall.

"Hurricane activity is occurring on the backdrop of higher sea levels, which increases coastal flooding risk — that much is clear," said Thomas Knutson, who studies climate change and hurricanes at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). 

"The overall risk — how the frequency and intensity of storms is affected by global warming — is much more complicated," Knutson told Live Science.

Related: Hurricane season 2022: How long it lasts and what to expect

A warming planet will, as a rule, give us more intense hurricane seasons, researchers have discovered. Rising sea levels, driven by climate change, mean more coastal flooding from storm surges when hurricanes make landfall. And global warming also affects precipitation, with an estimated 7% increase in rainfall for every 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) of increased sea surface temperature, scientists reported April 12 in the journal Nature Communications. As human activities cause sea levels and surface temperatures to rise, hurricanes are packing more of a punch, in the form of flooding and heavy rainfall, Live Science previously reported.

Along these lines, some climate models have predicted that a 2-degree-Celsius (3.6 F) increase in global temperatures would result in a greater percentage of hurricanes reaching Category 5 (sustained wind speeds of 157 mph, or 252 km/h), would increase hurricane wind speeds by about 5% on average, and would lead to more storms making landfall in the U.S., researchers reported in 2013 in the Journal of Climate. In an earlier study, published in 2005 in the journal Nature, scientists found such a strong correlation between Atlantic hurricanes and sea surface temperatures that they warned we could see a 300% increase in hurricane activity by 2100. 

But in spite of these dire predictions, we have not yet seen a significant increase in global hurricane activity. One confounding factor is that, while warmer sea surfaces are ideal breeding grounds for hurricanes, storms that collide with a warm atmosphere tend to fizzle out before causing much damage, researchers reported in a Nature study published June 27. This may explain why, even as human activities have caused the planet to warm by 1 C since the late 1800s, we haven't seen an upward trend in the number or intensity of hurricanes over the past century — and why the Nature study found that climate change may be linked to a global decrease in the number of hurricanes. 

"Increased greenhouse gases may cause sea surface warming, which increases hurricane intensity," Knutson said. "But there's even more warming in the upper troposphere, and that puts the brakes on hurricane intensity." Knutson nonetheless expects to ultimately see an uptick. "We think global warming will still result in a net increase in hurricane intensity, but not nearly as much as if we had only sea surface warming," he said.

Although we haven't necessarily seen more hurricanes globally over the past century, there has been an increase in hurricane frequency and intensity in the Atlantic basin over the past 40 years. But even that increase may not necessarily be due to climate change. Other factors, such as the reduced manufacture and use of aerosol products, which harm Earth's ozone layer, had a surprising impact on global temperatures that may have temporarily affected hurricane formation, according to a 2022 study published in Science Advances. While greenhouse gases cause global warming, aerosols block sunlight and cool the planet. When the U.S. began cutting back on aerosols, this dramatic reduction may have caused a temporary temperature bump that increased the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes, the researchers reported.

However, it's possible that factors other than aerosols alone were responsible for this change.

"There has been a big uptick in hurricanes in the Atlantic basin since 1980, but we don't know whether that's a greenhouse gas-driven signal, because of changes in aerosol use or just natural variability," Knutson said.

Given the number of variables that can affect hurricane formation and strength, it is therefore  "premature to conclude with high confidence that human-caused increasing greenhouse gasses have had a detectable impact on past Atlantic basin hurricane activity," according to an Oct. 3 report authored by Knutson for NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. The report cites lingering concerns that increases in storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean since 1980 may be attributable to a combination of factors, including decreases in the manufacture and use of aerosol products, global volcanic activity, and even natural variability.

Nevertheless, Knutson added, climate change will almost certainly make future hurricane seasons more dangerous,  with more frequent coastal flooding, increased rainfall, and warming seas favoring the formation of more intense storms.

Indeed, the shift is already well underway. In 2020, researchers analyzed data from 4,000 tropical cyclones spanning 39 years, from 1979 to 2017, and concluded that hurricanes are getting stronger and major tropical cyclones are becoming more frequent — just as models predicted, Live Science reported.  

"On average, we expect hurricanes to get more intense and have higher rates of rainfall due to climate change," Knutson said. As for Hurricane Ian, which caused hundreds of deaths and was Florida's deadliest hurricane since 1935, according to the The Washington Post, "instead of saying that Ian is a result of climate change, we'd rather say that storms like Ian are likely more intense than they would have been had they occurred in preindustrial times," Knutson said.

Hurricane Ian struck western Cuba Tuesday (Sept. 27) as a Category 3 storm and lost very little steam as it moved over the island and into the Gulf of Mexico, where the hurricane then ramped up to a Category 4 storm. The hurricane then continued to intensify as it barreled toward the west coast of Florida, nearly reaching Category 5 strength — the most powerful category for hurricanes — before making landfall near the barrier island of Cayo Costa.

Hurricanes typically lose strength as they move over land, so why didn't Ian rapidly weaken upon hitting Cuba? Several factors, including climate change, may have helped the storm gain and retain its power.

For starters, Ian passed through the extremely warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea on its way to Cuba. There, the sea surface temperature is about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) warmer than it has been in years past, in large part due to climate change, the Associated Press reported. 

The temperate water fueled Hurricane Ian's rapid growth, as did the region's low wind shear, meaning its lack of variation in wind speed or direction between the ocean's surface and the lower atmosphere, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported Monday (Sept. 26) evening. High wind shear can disrupt a growing hurricane's spiral structure and potentially tear the storm apart. Instead, the warm water and low wind shear allowed Ian to grow stronger and become better defined before reaching Cuba's shore.

Related: Hurricane season 2022: How long it lasts and what to expect 

The then-Category 3 hurricane reached the island around 4:30 a.m. ET Tuesday with maximum sustained winds near 125 mph (201 km/h). At that time, the NHC reported that "Ian is expected to spend only a few hours over western Cuba, and little overall change in strength is likely during that time," since spending minimal time over land would help the storm retain its moisture and high wind speeds. 

As predicted, the storm's center moved off Cuba's shore and entered the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by about 10 a.m. ET; there, the combination of warm water and low wind shear fueled the storm's intensification into a Category 4 hurricane.       

Since the storm's formation, Ian has gone through several periods of "rapid intensification," meaning the hurricane's maximum sustained winds increased by at least 35 mph (56 km/h) in a 24-hour period. Research suggests that the proportion of North Atlantic hurricanes that undergo rapid intensification has been on the rise since the 1980s and that this increase may be linked to climate change, according to a 2019 report in the journal Nature Communications. That said, natural climate variations may account for some of the increase, according to NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. 

Another study, published in 2020 in the journal Nature, suggested that rising ocean temperatures may now allow hurricanes to move farther inland than they did 50 or 60 years ago. Scientists theorize that modern-day hurricanes pick up and hang on to moisture more effectively because of the oceans' unusual warmth and that this extra moisture slows the storms' decay over land. Now, hurricanes weaken by only about 50% within the first day of landfall, compared with 75% in the 1970s, the study authors reported.

However, it's difficult for experts to confirm if these broad trends factor into how Hurricane Ian formed and tore through the Atlantic this week. "It's really hard to say that climate change has an impact on any one storm in terms of its formation or its individual intensity," Kristen Corbosiero, a hurricane scientist at the University at Albany, told the Associated Press. 

After entering the Gulf, Ian did encounter moderate wind shear and some patches of dry air before reaching the Florida coast, but due to its great size, the storm system was expected to be "fairly resilient" against these potential speed bumps, the NHC stated. The storm's magnitude and speed may even grant it enough juice to cross the entire Florida Peninsula. 

"Ian is likely to remain more intact as it crosses the Florida peninsula (due to both its stronger initial wind speed and its faster forecast forward speed), and this now increases the threat of hurricane-force winds on the east coast of Florida," the NHC warned at 11 a.m. ET Wednesday (Sept. 28). "This necessitates the issuance of a Hurricane Warning on the east coast of central Florida." 

Originally published on Live Science. 

Editor's note: This is a developing story and may be updated.

Hurricane Ian strengthened to a Category 4 storm early Wednesday (Sept. 28) morning having just passed over western Cuba, causing an island-wide blackout and killing at least two people. The storm's center is due to reach Florida's western shore within hours, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned at 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday. 

Ian made landfall in Cuba on Tuesday (Sept. 27) as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 125 mph (205 km/h). The cyclone was expected to dump some 6 to 10 inches (15.2 to 25.4 cm) of rain on the western half of the island, with some areas getting up to 16 inches (40.6 cm) of rainfall. State media reported two deaths in the western province of Pinar del Río, which endured heavy flooding and widespread destruction as the storm came ashore, CNN reported. 

Cuba's entire power grid collapsed in the wake of the hurricane, and the western section of the three-part grid suffered the most damage, The New York Times reported. Some electricity had been restored on the eastern half of the island by Wednesday morning, but overall, it was unclear how much of the island still remained without power at that time.

As the storm swept into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it strengthened into a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds near 140 mph (220 km/h), the NHC reported at 5 a.m. ET. Two hours later, the storm intensified and began producing maximum sustained winds around 155 mph (250 km/h) — nearly reaching the Category 5 threshold of 157 mph (252 km/h). 

Related: Hurricane season 2022: How long it lasts and what to expect  

"Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts," the NHC reported at 11 a.m. ET. "Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of Florida as a catastrophic hurricane."

"Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet [3.6 to 5.5 meters] above ground level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor," the NHC warned at 11 a.m. ET. "Catastrophic wind damage is beginning along the southwestern coast of Florida today near the landfall location. Hurricane-force winds are expected to extend well inland along [sic] near the core of Ian."

Heavy rainfall is expected across the entire Florida peninsula through Thursday (Sept. 29). "Considerable" flooding is expected in southern and northern regions of the state, and portions of central Florida are forecasted to endure "widespread, life-threatening catastrophic" flooding, due in part to anticipated river flooding in the region, the NHC stated.

Originally published on Live Science. 

Powerful winds, drenching rain and towering storm surges make hurricanes not only some of the planet’s most violent storms, but also the "costliest natural disasters in the United States," researchers reported in 2019 in the journal PNAS. Ranking the most damaging hurricanes, however, depends on the measure used: usually, financial cost or lives lost. 

By economic accounting, 2005’s Hurricane Katrina usually tops the list (though models adjusting for economic growth place a 1926 Miami storm first). Meanwhile, the deadliest hurricane struck the Caribbean in 1780, causing more than 22,000 deaths, Eric Jay Dolin, author of "A Furious Sky: The Five-Hundred-Year History of America's Hurricanes" (2020, Liveright), told Live Science. (By definition, a “hurricane” is a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific oceans, while other parts of the world call these storms typhoons or cyclones — some of which have been deadlier.)

Most expensive

Katrina was "the most expensive hurricane of all time," causing about $125 billion in damage when it devastated New Orleans and other Gulf Coast areas, Jay Dolin said. 

That cost exceeded $186 billion in 2022 dollars, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a tally that dwarfs the $54 billion in expected yearly losses from all hurricanes, according to a 2019 U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimate. Katrina’s losses swallowed 1% of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), or the total value of goods produced and services provided by a country in one year, according to the PNAS study. 

Related: Hurricane season 2022: How long it lasts and what to expect

Katrina’s devastation came primarily from storm surge — a temporary rise in ocean level that can flood coastal areas. During that storm, surges of 10 to 28 feet (3 to 9 meters) overwhelmed regions along the Gulf Coast, breaching levees in New Orleans. 

The next most costly hurricane was 2017’s Hurricane Harvey, which caused $149 billion of damage (in 2022 dollars), mostly due to "rainfall that produced widespread flooding across southeast Texas, including Houston," John Nielsen-Gammon, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University, told Live Science.

Those two storms top the list for financial damage both worldwide and in the U.S., which is no coincidence, Nielsen-Gammon added. "The most damaging hurricanes in terms of monetary damage are most likely to occur where you have lots of expensive infrastructure," he said. "That’s why two United States hurricanes top the list."

Storms that affect U.S. territories can, therefore, also tally costly damage. In 2017, Hurricane Maria caused $107 billion in damages (in 2022 dollars) in Puerto Rico, placing it third on NOAA’s list of costliest U.S. storms. Hurricane Sandy, which inundated New York City’s subway tunnels and other areas in 2012, comes next on the list ($82 billion), followed by 2021’s Hurricane Ida, which flooded Louisiana and spawned tornadoes farther north ($79 billion).

Coming in sixth on NOAA's list, 2017’s Hurricane Irma battered various Caribbean Islands, including Puerto Rico, causing a total of $59.5 billion in property and infrastructure damage. (Rankings that include non-U.S. losses may reshuffle the order, placing Irma ahead of Sandy, for example, as in the World Meteorological Organization list.)

Other wealthy countries also report high economic costs from tropical cyclones, Hugh E. Willoughby, an Earth and environment professor at Florida International University in Miami, told Live Science. For example, 2019’s Typhoon Hagibis saddled Japan with roughly $15 billion of damage (2019 U.S. dollars), according to a study published May 2022 in the journal Climatic Change.

A deadly toll

The Great Hurricane of 1780 tops the list of most damaging hurricanes as measured by lives lost. It killed more than 22,000 people, with the highest death tolls on the islands of Barbados, Martinique and Sint Eustatius, Dolin said. Galveston’s 1910 storm, the deadliest hurricane in the U.S., killed 6,000 to 12,000 people in the then-popular vacation spot, Dolin said. 

In the U.S., the number of lives lost to hurricanes has dramatically dropped over the years, thanks to improvements in warning systems and mitigation strategies, such as sea walls that protect against deadly storm surges. Katrina, tragically, bucked that trend, killing more than 1,800 people, which made it the deadliest modern U.S. hurricane, Dolin said. 

However, populations are likely to be more vulnerable to powerful storms in developing countries, where warning and storm defense systems may have not improved as much. In 1998, Hurricane Mitch killed 9,000 to 11,000 people in Honduras and Nicaragua, Nielsen-Gammon said. Tropical cyclones by other names in the rest of the world have caused even more loss of life. A 1970 Bangladesh cyclone had the highest death toll ever: an astronomical 300,000 to 500,000 people in the low-lying, densely populated country died, Nielsen-Gammon said. 

Originally published on Live Science.

Hurricanes have human names, such as Alex, Nigel and Sara. Chances are, you share your name with a hurricane or know someone who does. But where do these names come from? 

The Hurricane Committee at the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) decides on a list of tropical storm names as a part of its annual meeting. The committee doesn't base their names on specific people, but it chooses common names that are likely familiar to the people of the regions experiencing them. The names aren't meant to downplay a hurricane's severity. Rather, they are intended to facilitate communication about the storm. 

"Hurricanes themselves are very significant stressors on society, and so by naming them, we're able to track and constantly understand the threat," James Marshall Shepherd, director of the atmospheric sciences program at the University of Georgia and former president of the American Meteorological Society, told Live Science.

Shepherd noted that naming a hurricane also gives the public a reference point. "If I say, 'Remember Katrina,' people here in the United States immediately know how bad that storm was," Shepherd said. 

Hurricane Katrina was one of the worst hurricanes in U.S. history. The storm hammered the coastal areas of Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi in the summer of 2005, killing more than 1,800 people and destroying many more homes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service. 

"I think naming, in a strange kind of way, brands the storm in a real-time capacity for more effective messaging, but also gives a longer-term reference point for people to understand when they hear comparable type storms that may be coming along," Shepherd said.  

Related: First-ever 'space hurricane' detected over the North Pole

A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, which is a rapidly rotating storm that forms over tropical oceans. When a tropical storm has a maximum sustained wind speed of more than 39 mph (63 km/h), the WMO gives it a name. The title hurricane is given only to tropical storms that start in the Atlantic basin and have maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph (119 km/h) or greater. So, not all tropical storms with names are hurricanes. Hurricanes occur in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Ocean, eastern North Pacific Ocean and, occasionally, central North Pacific Ocean, according to NOAA.

Tropical cyclones in other parts of the world have different titles. They are called typhoons in the western North Pacific Ocean, cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, severe tropical cyclones in the western South Pacific and southeast Indian Ocean and tropical cyclones in the southwest Indian Ocean, according to the WMO. 

The WMO keeps rotating lists of names for tropical cyclones around the world. The names are selected by the Tropical Cyclone Regional Body responsible for each basin. One of these is the Hurricane Committee for Atlantic tropical cyclones, which is made up of 32 members and includes experts from national meteorological and hydrological services across North America, Central America and the Caribbean. 

The WMO chooses short, distinct human names — such as Alex, Nigel and Sara — for Atlantic basin storms because they are quicker and easier to use and remember than more technical names that encompass longitude and latitude. There also may be more than one hurricane active at the same time, meaning a date-based hurricane name could be confusing, according to NOAA's National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center. 

The Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic regions use one list of severe storm names, and the eastern North Pacific region uses a second; both are used on a six-year cycle, after which they repeat. For example, the names used in the 2022 hurricane season will be the same in 2028, according to the WMO, which publishes the lists of names on its website. There are slightly different tropical cyclone naming systems for other basins, and they aren't all based solely on human names. For example, the tropical storms of the western North Pacific and North Indian oceans are named mostly after flowers, animals, trees, food and other descriptive words, according to the Met Office, the national weather service in the U.K. 

Each season, the Atlantic basin storm names go in alphabetical order, with one storm beginning with each letter (with a few exceptions). For example, the first named storm of 2023 (and 2029) in the eastern North Pacific will be called Adrian, the second will be Beatriz and the last will be Zelda. Some letters are excluded because it's too difficult to find suitable names. The North Pacific names skip "q" and "u," while names of storms in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic also omit "x," "y" and "z."

The WMO has a reserve list of supplementary names in case there are more named storms in a year than they have names on their initial list, which happened in 2005, 2020 and 2021. These names used to be taken from the Greek alphabet, but the WMO replaced them with common human names in 2021. The organization retired Greek letters because some — such as zeta, eta and theta — have similar pronunciations, which could be confusing and didn't always translate well into different languages. Also, the Greek alphabet has a finite number of letters, and storm names are occasionally retired.

"If a storm is significant enough in terms of loss or life or destruction, that name is taken off that rotating six-year list," Shepherd said. For this reason, there won't be another hurricane named Katrina. 

Originally published on Live Science.

After two years of La Niña — El Niño's cooler counterpart — the South Pacific may be facing a potential third appearance of La Niña in a row, which could bring more rainfall to an already-saturated eastern Australia and continue the trend of intense hurricane seasons along the east coast of the United States, and drought conditions in the country's southwestern states. 

This rare occurrence has "only happened twice since 1950," Zoe Gillett, a researcher at the Australia Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, told Live Science. But predicting La Niña is tricky, she warned; climatologists likely won't know which way the winds will blow until September.

If you live in the Northern Hemisphere, you're probably familiar with El Niño, the periodic Pacific Ocean warming event that takes place every few years and shapes global weather patterns. But you might be less familiar with its twin sister, La Niña. Both are part of a climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which generates variations in weather conditions that last for months.

Related: Hurricane season 2022: How long it lasts and what to expect

El Niño means "the Little Boy" in Spanish; it was so named in the 17th century by fishermen working off the coast of South America. The name was likely a reference to Jesus Christ, as the ocean temperature shift that accompanies El Niño is most noticeable in December, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Indigenous groups in South America almost certainly noticed the phenomenon as well, but their names for it did not survive colonization.

When El Niño conditions are active, sea surface temperatures are above average in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, according to the National Weather Service. As a result, trade winds across the Pacific weaken and worldwide rainfall patterns shift, bringing, for example, droughts to Indonesia and floods to Peru. This change lasts around nine to 12 months, after which the Pacific either settles back into an "ENSO-neutral" year — in which sea surface temperatures are neither higher nor lower than average — or flips into La Niña.

"La Niña events are essentially the opposite [of El Niño]," Gillett said. La Niña years are characterized by a sustained cooling effect around the equator and eastern tropical region of the Pacific caused by a shift in air pressure systems, according to NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. La Niña events bring a more active hurricane season to North America and can lead to heavy flooding in many Pacific Island nations, as well as droughts along South America's west coast.

The ENSO  climate pattern cycles through El Niño and La Niña events about  every three to seven years. However, climatologists did not officially recognize La Niña ("the Little Girl") until the 1980s. While this ENSO pattern is persistent, it is notoriously difficult to predict, especially as it nears a fluctuation point, Science reported.

Unlike El Niño, La Niña can linger for multiple years. Both 2020 and 2021 were La Niña years, and as of right now, the phenomenon has a 52% chance of a three-peat, according to the National Climate Prediction Center. The last triple-dip for La Niña was more than two decades ago, from 1998 to 2001.

Experts say that escalating climate change will likely impact the intensity (though not necessarily the frequency) of future El Niño and La Niña events. "We should expect almost double the number of extreme La Niña events compared to last century," Gillett said. "However, we do have to interpret these climate models with care."

Originally published on Live Science.

Hurricane season in the Atlantic brings a host of dramatic and dangerous weather, from whipping winds, torrential downpours, power outages and flash floods. And as climate change has been tied to an increase in hurricane intensity, these impacts could continue to worsen.

But when exactly does the Atlantic hurricane season of 2024 start, and how long does it last? And how do hurricanes form? What can people do to prepare in the face of the most dangerous storms on Earth? The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to bring a record-breaking number of ferocious storms.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted an above-normal season, with up to 25 named storms, as a result of climate change and the transition from El Niño to La Niña.

The first tropical storm of 2024, Alberto, hit on June 19. As of Sept. 26, eight other named storms have formed in the Atlantic. Five of the season's storms have been hurricanes.

What are hurricanes?

Hurricanes are tropical cyclones. When a tropical cyclone's sustained winds reach 39 to 73 mph (63 to 118 km/h), it is considered a tropical storm and it gets a name from a list put out by the World Meteorological Organization. Once those sustained winds reach 74 to 95 mph (119 to 153 km/h), that storm becomes a Category 1 hurricane. According to the Saffir-Simpson scale, here are the sustained winds linked to categories 2 through 5 hurricanes:

• Category 2: 96 to 110 mph (154 to 177 km/h)
• Category 3: 111 to 129 mph (178 to 208 km/h)
• Category 4: 130 to 156 mph (209 to 251 km/h)
• Category 5: 157 mph or higher (252 km/h or higher)

Named storms of 2024

• Tropical Storm Alberto — June 19 -20. This broad, but-short-lived storm affected parts of Louisiana, Texas and Mexico.
• Hurricane Beryl — June 28 - July 11 . This storm slammed into Grenada, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines as a Category 5 on July 2, pummeled Jamaica and the Cayman Islands before striking the Yucatán Peninsula as a Category 2. From there, it barreled across the Gulf of Mexico before making final landfall in Matagorda, Texas. Dozens of people died.
• Tropical storm Chris —June 30- July 1. This short-lived storm brought heavy rainfall to parts of Mexico.
• Hurricane Debby —Aug. 3 - 14. This slow-moving Category 1 hurricane dumped huge amounts of rain on Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia. Around 10 people died.
• Hurricane Ernesto —Aug. 12-20. This hurricane caused flooding in Puerto Rico before intensifying to a Category 2 storm and slamming into Bermuda as a Category 1.
• Hurricane Francine —Sept. 9 - 12. Hurricane Francine was a Category 2 hurricane that made landfall in Louisiana on Sept. 11 and then rapidly weakened over the next day.
• Tropical Storm Gordon —Sept. 11 - Sept. 17. This tropical storm formed in the middle of the Atlantic, far off the coast of Africa, before ultimately breaking up before ever making landfall.
• Hurricane Helene —Sept. 24 - Sept. 29. Hurricane Helene was a Category 4 storm that barreled toward Florida's Big Bend region with maximum wind speeds of 130 mph (210 km/h). This devastating storm made landfall around 11 p.m. EDT on Sept. 26 before lashing Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama with high winds and rain. Helene was huge, stretching around 400 miles (640 km) wide. It brought near-record storm surges, swamping the coast with water around 9 feet (2.7 m) above normal levels. The damage was catastrophic, and more than 230 people were killed across six states — making it the deadliest hurricane to hit mainland U.S. since Katrina in 2005.
• Tropical storm Isaac — Sept. 26 - Sept. 30. Tropical storm Isaac formed in the North Atlantic and reached maximum sustained wind speeds of 65 mph (104 km/h).
• Tropical storm Joyce — Sept 27 - Oct. 1. Tropical storm Joyce formed over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean with maximum wind speeds of 50 mph (80 km/h) before dissipating over the central Atlantic.
• Hurricane Kirk — Sept. 30 - present. Hurricane Kirk formed as a tropical depression in the North Atlantic between Senegal and the Caribbean. It strengthened to a tropical storm, before reaching hurricane strength on Oct. 1. On Oct. 4 it became a Category 4 hurricane with wind speeds of 145 mph (233 km/h). It began to lose strength on Oct. 6 as it veered north and then west towards Europe, where it's expected to make landfall on Oct. 9 or 10.
• Hurricane Leslie — Oct. 2 - present. Tropical storm Leslie formed in the eastern tropical Atlantic as a tropical storm before strengthening to a Category 1 hurricane. It then lost momentum and was downgraded to a tropical storm.
• Hurricane Milton — Oct. 5 - present. Hurricane Milton formed as a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico before strengthening rapidly to a hurricane on Oct. 6. It initially moved towards the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula before veering toward central Florida. On Oct. 7 it rapidly strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane before being downgraded to a strong Category 4 on Oct. 8. It is currently barrelling toward Florida and is forecast to make landfall around the Tampa Bay area on Wednesday (Oct. 9). The entire west coast of Florida will face catastrophic conditions, with storm surges between 10 to 15 feet (3 to 4.5 m) in some areas.

How do hurricanes form?

Hurricanes are the most violent storms on Earth, according to NASA. At heart, hurricanes are fueled by just two ingredients: heat and water. Hurricanes are seeded over the warm waters above the equator, where the air above the ocean's surface takes in heat and moisture. As the hot air rises, it leaves a lower pressure region below it. This process repeats as air from higher pressure areas moves into the lower pressure area, heats up, and rises, in turn, producing swirls in the air, according to NASA. Once this hot air gets high enough into the atmosphere, it cools off and condenses into clouds. Now, the growing, swirling vortex of air and clouds grows and grows and can become a thunderstorm.

So, the first condition needed for hurricanes is warmer waters in the Atlantic Ocean, which cause a number of other conditions favorable to hurricanes.

"When the waters are warmer, it tends to mean you have lower pressures. It means a more unstable atmosphere, which is conducive to hurricanes intensifying," said Phil Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University. "These thunderstorms, which are the building blocks of hurricanes, are better able to organize and get going."

Another key factor: wind shear, or the change in wind direction with height into the atmosphere, Klotzbach said. "When you have a warm tropical Atlantic, you have reduced levels of wind shear," Klotzbach told Live Science. "When you have a lot of wind shear it basically tears apart the hurricane."

(Storms that form on different sides of the equator have different spin orientations, thanks to Earth's slight tilt on its axis, according to NASA.)

How climate patterns affect hurricanes

The individual ingredients for hurricanes, however, don't pop up at random; they are guided by larger weather systems. "There are two dominant climate patterns that really control the wind and pressure patterns across the Atlantic," said Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster for NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in Washington, D.C.

The first is the El Niño/La Niña cycle. During an El Niño, in which ocean water around the northwestern coast of South America becomes warmer than usual, Atlantic hurricanes are suppressed, while La Niña creates more favorable conditions for hurricanes, Bell said.

The second climate pattern is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which is, as the name implies, a trend that lasts anywhere from 25 to 40 years and is associated with warmer waters in the Atlantic and stronger African monsoons, Bell said.

"When this pattern is in its warm phase, or a warmer tropical Atlantic Ocean, we tend to see stronger hurricane patterns for decades at a time," Bell told Live Science.

A warm-phase AMO conducive to hurricanes prevailed between 1950 and 1970 and since 1995, Bell said.

Hurricane outlook: 2024

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially started on June 1 and will run until Nov. 30. In the Eastern Pacific Ocean, hurricane season begins May 15 and ends Nov. 30, according to the National Weather Service. However, most of these storms hit during peak hurricane season between August and October, on both coasts, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

The Climate Prediction Center classifies hurricane seasons as above-normal (between 12 and 28 tropical storms and between seven and 15 hurricanes); near-normal (between 10 and 15 tropical storms and between four and nine hurricanes) and below-normal (between four and nine tropical storms and two to four hurricanes).

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was predicted to be above-average, and that was borne out; a total of 21 tropical cyclones, 20 of which were named storms and seven of which were hurricanes, formed that year.

On May 23, NOAA said the forthcoming season was likely to be record-breaking. It predicted 17 to 25 named storms. According to the forecast, 13 of these storms will be hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) or higher, and four to seven will be major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph (179 km/h) or higher.

To make their predictions, scientists analyze a host of factors, from wind speed to sea-surface temperatures. Because the El Niño/La Niña cycle typically materializes in summer or early fall, forecasts done too early have limited meaning, Bell said.

In 2024, the strong El Niño of the prior season disappeared, and forecasts predicted its counterpart, La Niña, is coming. The latter leads to weaker trade winds, which means there is less wind shear to break up tropical storms.

However, as of late September, the bumper crop of tropical storms forecast has yet to appear. This may be in part because of an unusual monsoon season in Africa. The monsoon normally causes warm waves off Senegal and Gambia that fuel hurricanes. This year, the monsoon has hit further north, where cooler water contains less energy to fuel hurricanes.

Are hurricanes getting stronger?

Yes. On average, the world is seeing stronger tropical cyclones (a term that encompasses fast-rotating storms such as hurricanes and typhoons) more often than in decades past. According to an analysis of 4,000 tropical cyclones from 1979 to 2017, researchers concluded in 2020 that due to global warming these storms are not only getting stronger, but we are experiencing the strongest of the pack more frequently, Live Science reported. In another study, scientists discovered that compared with six decades ago, hurricanes that blast Bermuda are twice as strong, they reported online March 2, 2021 in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

We can thank climate change for another hurricane downer: Global warming is leading to so-called zombie storms, or those that peter out and then get refueled to sort of rise from the dead, Live Science reported. For instance, in September 2020, the Category 1 hurricane Paulette made landfall in Bermuda, strengthened into a Category 2 and then weakened and died out some 5.5 days later. That wasn't the end of her story, though, because she regained strength and reached tropical storm strength about 300 miles (480 kilometers) off the Azores Islands. And according to scientists, such zombie storms could become more frequent, as waters warm up and give once-dead storms new life, according to Live Science.

Which cities have the most hurricanes?

According to HurricaneCity, a hurricane-tracking website, here are the top 10 cities most frequently hit or affected by hurricanes since record-keeping began in 1871:

1. Cape Hatteras, North Carolina: Every 1.30 years (116 named tropical storms since 1871)
2. Morehead City, North Carolina: Every 1.48 years (102 named storms)
3. Grand Bahamas Island, Bahamas: Every 1.61 years (94 named storms)
4. Wilmington, North Carolina: Every 1.66 years (91 named storms)
5. Cayman Islands (most affected area in the Caribbean Sea): Every 1.68 years (90 named storms)
6. Bermuda: Every 1.74 years (87 named storms)
7. Great Abaco Island, Bahamas: Every 1.76 years (86 named storms)
8. Andros Island, Bahamas: Every 1.86 years (81 named storms)
9. Savannah, Georgia: Every 1.86 years (81 named storms)
10. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina: Every 1.89 years (80 named storms)

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Once a storm has wind speeds of 38 mph (58 km/h), it is officially a tropical storm. At 74 mph (119 km/h), the storm has reached hurricane levels. At that point, scientists use a 1 to 5 scale known as the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale to classify hurricane strength, with Category 1 being the least severe hurricanes and Category 5 being the strongest. Some scientists have also proposed adding a Category 6 to account for storms that are well beyond the highest sustained wind speed for a Category 5 hurricane.

Source: NOAA's National Hurricane Center

Scientists know that the scale has its limitations. "This scale does not take into account other potentially deadly hazards such as storm surge, rainfall flooding and tornadoes," according to the National Hurricane Center.

How are hurricanes named?

Hurricanes initially were named in honor of the feast day for a Catholic saint. For instance, Hurricane San Felipe occurred on Sept. 13, 1876, or the feast day of Saint Phillip, according to the National Hurricane Center. Hurricanes that struck on the same day would be distinguished by a suffix placed on the later one, Live Science previously reported. For example, a storm that struck on Sept. 13, 1928, was dubbed Hurricane San Felipe II, to distinguish it from the 1876 storm.

However, by the 1950s, the naming convention changed and in the U.S., hurricanes were given female names based on the international alphabet, according to the NHC. The practice of calling storms by female names only was abandoned in 1978.

Despite the seemingly open-ended possibilities, meteorologists do not have free reign in deciding names. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has a long list of alphabetical storm names that repeats on a six-year cycle. The organization aims for clear and simple names. Names are in English, Spanish, Dutch and French, to account for the many languages spoken by people potentially affected by hurricanes.

"Experience shows that the use of short, distinctive given names in written as well as spoken communications is quicker and less subject to error than the older, more cumbersome, latitude-longitude identification methods. These advantages are especially important in exchanging detailed storm information between hundreds of widely scattered stations, coastal bases and ships at sea," the WMO said.

If a storm was so devastating that using the name again would be insensitive, the group meets and agrees to strike the name from the list.

For instance, people don't have to worry about facing the wrath of a Hurricane Katrina, Ike, Hattie or Opal again, because those names have been retired, according to the NHC.

For the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, meteorologists prepared the following list of names for storms in the North Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center:

• Alberto
• Beryl
• Chris
• Debby
• Ernesto
• Francine
• Gordon
• Helene
• Isaac
• Joyce
• Kirk
• Leslie
• Milton
• Nadine
• Oscar
• Patty
• Rafael
• Sara
• Tony
• Valerie
• William

How to prepare for a hurricane

Staying safe during the hurricane season starts with a simple step: Have a plan. People can plan for hurricanes using a simple guide at Ready.gov. Plans need to be worked out for all family members. And for those animal lovers out there, Fido and Mr. Whiskers also need an escape plan.

This plan includes figuring out how to determine whether it's safe to hunker down at home during a storm or whether you are in an evacuation zone. If so, there is likely a specific route you should take in the event of an evacuation, as many roads may be closed, Live Science previously reported.

If you are in an evacuation zone, you also need to figure out accommodations during the storm — this could be anything from staying with family and friends to renting a motel to staying in a shelter.

Family members often have trouble reaching each other during hurricanes, so determining a preset meeting place and protocol can be helpful. Sometimes, local cellphone lines are overloaded during a storm, so consider texting. Another alternative is to have a central out-of-state contact who can relay messages between separated family members.

During a storm, pets should be leashed or placed in a carrier, and their emergency supplies should include a list of their vaccinations as well as a photo in case they get lost, according to the Humane Society for the United States. Also important is finding someone who can care for them, in the event that a hotel or shelter does not accept pets. During an emergency, they should also be wearing a collar with the information of an out-of-state contact in case they get separated from you, according to the HSUS.

How to storm-proof your home

Anyone who lives in a hurricane-prone area would do well to protect their property in advance of a flood. Because hurricanes often cause their damage when trees fall on property, homeowners can reduce the risk of damage by trimming trees or removing damaged trees and limbs, according to Ready.gov.

Another easy step is to make sure rain gutters are fixed in place and free of debris. Reinforcing the roof, doors and windows, including a garage door, is also important, according to Ready.gov.

Power generators can also be an important tool if the power is cut off for long periods of time. A power generator needs to be kept outside, as they produce dangerous levels of carbon monoxide.

People who are very serious about prevention may even consider building a "safe room" — a fortified room designed to withstand the punishing winds of a tornado or hurricane, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency pamphlet .

List of emergency supplies

People living in hurricane country also need to have a stash of emergency supplies, ideally placed in multiple locations throughout a dwelling. According to Ready.gov, a basic disaster kit should include:

• A gallon of water per person per day for at least three days
• A three-day supply of non-perishable food
• A battery-powered or hand-crank radio
• A flashlight with extra batteries
• A first aid kit
• A whistle to get help
• Dust mask
• Moist towelettes, garbage cans and plastic ties for sanitation
• A wrench or pliers for turning off busted pipes
• Maps
• A can opener for food
• Cellphone chargers

Experts are warning that the Eastern U.S. should prepare for another barrage of tropical storms this year. The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be more active than average for the seventh year in a row, according to the latest prediction from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 

There is a 65% chance that the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which starts on June 1 and ends Nov. 30, will bring 14 to 21 named storms, or storms with winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) or higher; six to 10 hurricanes with winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) or greater; and three to six major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph (179 km/h), according to NOAA. (NOAA's predictions have a range of 70% certainty, representatives said in a statement).

The first storm of the year will be named Alex and the next four will be named Bonnie, Colin, Danielle and Earl, according to the National Hurricane Center. Only 21 names, starting with the letters A through W, are given to storms each year before Greek letters are assigned instead. The new forecast means there is a possibility that all 21 storm names will be used for the third year in a row; 21 storms developed in 2021 and a record-breaking 30 storms formed in 2020.

The current "La Niña" event, which has created warmer waters in regions of the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, is partly responsible for the above-average season forecast. La Niña, which means "little girl" in Spanish, is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean in which waters in the tropical eastern Pacific are colder than average and trade winds blow more strongly than usual. This can affect weather across the globe and can also lead to more severe hurricane seasons, according to NOAA. 

Earlier predictions from researchers at the University of Arizona on April 28 had suggested that La Niña might dissipate, meaning an only slightly above-average hurricane season. (Ocean surface temperatures are one of the main factors in fueling the size, frequency and strength of hurricanes. The warmer the water, the stronger the storm, NOAA says.)

Related: The 20 costliest, most destructive hurricanes to hit the US 

Fortunately, on May 18, NOAA announced that the Central Pacific hurricane season, which also begins on June 1, is likely to be less active than average. Only two to four tropical cyclones are predicted for the Central Pacific hurricane region, compared to the average of four to five. This is because the La Niña event is causing wind patterns that will help prevent storms from growing in this region, according to the statement. 

Even without the storm-inducing La Niña event, hurricane seasons have become increasingly more active as global sea-surface temperatures have risen as a result of climate change. 

"We have to refocus to this new reality of dealing with this change to our environment and how it impacts us every day," Eric Adams, Mayor of New York City, said in a NOAA press briefing on May 24 at the New York City Emergency Management Department. 

New York City was one of the areas most affected by Hurricane Ida, 2021's largest storm, which reached maximum wind speeds of 150 mph (240 km/h), impacted nine states and was clearly visible from more than 1 million miles from Earth. By the time Ida was done, the hurricane's winds, rainfall, storm surges and tornadoes caused an estimated $75 billion in damages, NOAA officials reported this April.

Individual storms have also become more powerful due to climate change. In February 2021, a study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters revealed that hurricane wind speeds in Bermuda have more than doubled in strength over the last 66 years due to rising ocean temperatures in the region.

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season actually ended up being even more active than predicted. Only time will tell if NOAA's predictions for this year are correct, but experts say people should start preparing for storms now. 

"It's crucial to remember that it only takes one storm to damage your home, neighborhood and community," NOAA administrator Richard Spinrad said at the briefing.

Editor's note: This article was updated on June 7 to reflect that the probability for NOAA's predicted storm activity for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is 65%, and not 70% as  previously stated.

Originally published on Live Science.

Satellite images have captured aerial views of an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico a week after Hurricane Ida pummeled the region. 

Hurricane Ida made landfall near Port Fourchon, Louisiana, as a Category 4 hurricane on Aug. 29, bringing sustained winds of around 150 mph (240 kph), torrential rainfall and a powerful storm surge, causing flooding along much of the coast. The hurricane also appears to have caused a sizable oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico that is visible from space in Sept. 4 images captured by a Maxar Technologies satellite. 

Divers identified a ruptured pipeline, located about 2 miles (3 kilometers) south of Port Fourchon, as the underwater source of the spill. The pipeline, measuring 1 foot (30 centimeters) in diameter, was displaced from a trench on the ocean floor during the storm, causing it to burst open, the Associated Press reported. 

Related: Hurricane Ida from space: Photos from astronauts and satellites

The satellite images show oil slicks, or dark brown and black streaks of oil floating on the surface of the water, near the East Timbalier National Wildlife Refuge, south of Port Fourchon. 

Cleanup crews are working in the area to mitigate the oil spill, which spans at least 10 miles (16 km) and appears to be drifting eastward along the Gulf Coast, according to the Associated Press. The broken pipe is located in relatively shallow water, roughly 34 feet (10 meters) deep. 

So far, reports suggest that the oil spill has remained out to sea and not impacted the Louisiana shoreline. While crews have yet to provide an estimate of how much oil has leaked into the water, the rate at which oil was appearing on the ocean surface has slowed, according to the Associated Press report. 

Divers investigating the area also found two additional, smaller pipelines that are open and apparently abandoned. While it is not clear whether those pipelines, which measure 4 inches (10 cm) in diameter, are also leaking oil, the Maxar satellite images show at least three different slicks in the same area. 

Talos Energy, a Houston-based company, hired Clean Gulf Associates — a nonprofit oil-spill response cooperative — to mitigate further spread of the oil. The oil company is also investigating the cause of the leak, even though they have said that the broken pipeline does not belong to them. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also shared aerial views captured on Sept. 2 of the area where the oil spill occurred. The NOAA images show a dark streak — an indication of thick, heavy oil — surrounded by a rainbow sheen, The New York Times reported. 

Follow Samantha Mathewson @Sam_Ashley13. Follow us on Twitter @Spacedotcom and on Facebook. 

Ida remained a hurricane for 16 hours after it made landfall on Sunday (Aug. 29), and was a major hurricane (defined as a storm of Category 3 or above) for six hours of that time. How did the storm have so much staying power?

It basically didn't know it was over land, meteorologists say.

Hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean waters. But when they make landfall over a wet, marshy, or saturated spot, they can still power themselves with evaporating moisture.

"We always knew that places like the Everglades or the swampy wetlands of Louisiana could provide a fuel supply for storms that might linger over them, and I think that's what we saw with Ida," said Marshall Shepherd, a meteorologist and the director of the Atmospheric Sciences Program at the University of Georgia.

Related: The 20 costliest, most destructive hurricanes to hit the US 

Brown ocean

Shepherd and his colleagues have long studied the phenomenon of hurricanes and tropical storms that stay strong even as they travel inland — long enough that they've dubbed the phenomenon the "brown ocean effect."

Hurricanes draw their fuel from warm ocean waters. As the warm water evaporates and rises, it condenses, releasing heat and driving the rotation of the storm. As the hurricane's winds gather around its eye, they blow across the ocean surface, driving faster evaporation and feeding even more energy into the storm.

When the hurricane hits land, it typically loses this fuel source and begins to weaken and eventually fall apart. But when "land" is a swamp — as it is where Ida came ashore in southern Louisiana — there's still plenty of moisture to draw in. This can keep a storm organized and deadly for long periods over land.

"The storm had a very classic structure, it still had an eye, it still had a warm core," Shepherd told Live Science. "So if it's maintaining that structure, maintaining its integrity, you're still going to have very low pressure and that means you're going to continue to have stronger winds and intense rainfall."

Strengthening inland

Ida isn't the first storm to feed off marshy land. In 2016, an unnamed storm that caused flooding in Baton Rouge underwent a very similar process, according to a paper published in 2019 in the journal Scientific Reports and co-authored by Shepherd. That storm dumped 30 inches (780 millimeters) of rain on the region.

The effect can even occur farther inland, where rain-saturated soils can power tropical cyclones far from the sea, according to 2013 research by Shepherd and geographer Theresa Andersen, an assistant professor at Kennesaw State University in Georgia. One example was 2007's Tropical Storm Erin, which made landfall in Texas, subsequently weakened, but intensified again in Oklahoma. The state saw flooding, high winds and power losses, and several people drowned. Inland intensification has also been seen in Asia and in northern Australia. For instance, Tropical Cyclone Kelvin made landfall over northern Australia in 2018 and continued to intensify after coming ashore, possibly driven by warm, sandy soil that had experienced a recent rainfall.

Another factor that might have helped Ida stay strong was the unique topography of southern Louisiana just west of New Orleans. The area where the hurricane came ashore is extremely flat and low-lying, said Levi Cowan, a meteorologist and owner of tropicaltidbits.com. With little topography to stop it, storm surge can reach dozens of miles inland. That's important because one of the factors that slows hurricanes on land is friction.

"It's the drag of the circulation against the ground that slows it down a lot," Cowan told Live Science. With the storm surge flooding the coastline, it's possible the eye of Ida didn't contact land for some time even after it officially made landfall, he said. 

Originally published on Live Science.

As parts of the U.S. northeast brace for Hurricane Henri to make landfall in New York today (Aug. 22), astronauts and satellites are tracking the historic storm from space. 

Henri, which reached category 1 hurricane status on Saturday, is forecast to make landfall on Long Island, New York by midday today, dropping torrents of rain on Connecticut and Rhode Island, according to the National Hurricane Center's morning update. Astronauts on the International Space Station spotted Henri from orbit on Saturday. 

"We just flew over the East Coast and saw Hurricane Henri," NASA astronaut Megan McArthur wrote on Twitter while sharing a photo of the storm from space. "Stay safe friends."

Related: Amazing Hurricane Photos From Space

The Goes-East weather satellite tracked Henri's approach to the U.S. East Coast over the last few days, as well as Hurricane Grace, which made landfall in Mexico on the eastern Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. One video from the satellite shows both storms churning across the Atlantic while Henri was still a tropical storm. 

NASA's Terra satellite spotted Henri in the Atlantic on Friday (Aug. 20) as it was building strength as a tropical storm. 

"Around the time of the image, Henri was located about 400 miles (640 kilometers) southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, and was moving toward the northwest," NASA's Kathryn Hansen wrote of the image in a description. Henri was just shy of hurricane category 1 status at the time, she added.

Hurricane Henri is the first hurricane to make landfall in the New England area in nearly 30 years. The last to hit New England was Hurricane Bob in 1991, while Long Island was hit by Hurricane Gloria in 1986, according to the New York Times. 

Photos: The Most Powerful Storms of the Solar System

As of Sunday at 8 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT), Henri was located about 40 miles (65 kilometers) south-southeast of Montauk Point, New York with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 kph), according to the National Hurricane Center. 

Hurricane warnings are in effect for the Long Island area and the southern coast of New England, as are storm surge and flooding warnings. With the outer bands of Henri expected to lash a wide swath of the northeastern U.S., a tropical storm warning is in effect for a region that stretches from New Jersey to Massachusetts, including New York City.

Email Tariq Malik at tmalik@space.com or follow him @tariqjmalik. Follow us @Spacedotcom, Facebook and Instagram.

It's been just over two months since the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season kicked off on June 1, and we can expect to see even more hurricanes and named storms than experts previously predicted, before the season winds down on Nov. 30.

On Wednesday (Aug. 4), scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated their May 20 hurricane season forecast, in an online briefing. They had already warned in May of above-normal hurricane activity, Live Science previously reported, and their update confirmed the presence of atmospheric and ocean conditions that favor higher-than-average storm activity.

One such factor is the growing possibility of an emerging La Niña, a climate pattern that pushes warm waters in the Pacific Ocean toward Asia and carries cooler water to the surface off the western coast of North America, according to NOAA. When La Niña is dominant and waters around the equatorial Pacific are cooler, the Atlantic hurricane season can be more severe, Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said at the briefing.

Related: Hurricane season 2021: How long it lasts and what to expect

In the new outlook, NOAA predicts that the season will see 15 to 21 named storms, compared with the 13 to 20 storms forecast in May. Of those, seven to 10 will likely reach hurricane strength, whereas the May prediction estimated six to 10 hurricanes. There is no change to the number of anticipated major hurricanes — those strengthening to Category 3 or higher, with winds of at least 111 mph (178 km/h) — with three to five such storms expected, Rosencrans said.

"Given the increase in the predicted number of named storms and hurricanes, there is now a 65% chance for an above-normal season and a 25% chance for a near-normal season, with a 10% chance of a below-normal season," he added. However, as sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are somewhat cooler now than they were at this time last year, it's likely that this hurricane season won't be quite as active as it was in 2020, Rosencrans said.

While the 2021 hurricane season is just getting started, it's already broken a record. Five named storms have formed so far, with number five — Elsa — becoming a hurricane. Elsa, which made landfall in Florida on July 7, was the earliest fifth named storm to form in the Atlantic, Rosencrans said. And the season's activity "does not show any signs of relenting as it enters the peak months ahead," NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement. (Peak hurricane season is mid-August through October.)

How can you prepare for hurricane season, if you live in a high-risk coastal area? Visit the Federal Emergency Management Agency's Ready.gov website for information on how to ready your home before hurricanes strike and how to stay safe during a storm, according to the NOAA statement. You can also visit the National Hurricane Center's Hurricanes.gov website to follow hurricane updates and warnings as storms develop, NOAA says.

"Now is the time to be vigilant about preparedness plans and potential actions," Rosencrans said at the briefing. "Hurricanes are not limited to just damaging winds, but also dangerous storm surge and torrential rain leading to flooding. Regardless of the predicted activity, it does only take one storm to have catastrophic impacts on lives and communities."

Originally published on Live Science.

Earth — the blue marble — is our spherical home. But what if Earth were flat? After all, some people, called flat-earthers, truly believe in this retrograde idea. How would everyday life function? Would it function at all? We explore how much of an oddball, or "oddslice" Earth would be if it were flat and whether there are any advantages to living on a strange disk with the sun and moon rotating overhead like a cosmic carousel.  

 1. Say goodbye to gravity (at least as we know it) 

On spherical Earth, gravity tugs equally on objects no matter where in the world they are. For Earth to take the shape of a flat disk in the first place, gravity — as we know it — must be having no effect. If it did, it would soon pull the planet back into a spheroid. 

Maybe a flat-Earth would have no gravity at all, as a solid disk-like Earth would not be possible under actual gravity conditions, according to calculations in the 1850s by mathematician and physicist James Clerk Maxwell. 

Or perhaps on a flat-Earth, gravity would pull everything to the center of the disk — the North Pole. In that scenario, the farther away you are from the North Pole the more horizontal the gravitational tug toward the central point of the disk, according to James Davis, a geophysicist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. This would wreak havoc worldwide, but at least the world long jump record would be easily beaten (as long as you orientated yourself northward before taking off that is).  

 2. It would certainly clear the atmosphere 

With no gravity, flat-Earth would no longer be able to hold onto the layer of gases called the atmosphere. The force of gravity is what holds this veil around our planet. And without this protective blanket, Earth's skies would turn black because light emitted from the sun would no longer scatter as it enters Earth's atmosphere and paint the skies the familiar blue we see today. The loss of atmospheric pressure would expose plants and animals to the vacuum of space, leading to asphyxiation in seconds, Luis Villazon, a zoologist and educator, wrote in BBC Science Focus.

Without an atmosphere surrounding the planet, water would initially boil away in the vacuum of space. That's because water boils when its vapor pressure equals that of the atmosphere, so lower atmospheric pressure means lower boiling point. Without an atmosphere to help warm the planet, the surface temperature would also plummet causing any remaining water to quickly freeze. But it isn't all bad news, as deep-ocean organisms such as chemosynthetic bacteria that don't require oxygen might just survive. After all, such bacteria have endured long trips to space and lived to tell the tale. 

3. Cloudy with a chance of sideways rain  

If gravity pulled toward the center of the planetary disk, which in this case is the North Pole, precipitation would also gravitate toward that spot. This is because precipitation falls to Earth due to gravity and will therefore fall toward the point of strongest gravitational pull. 

Only at the center of the disk would weather behave as we know it on Earth — falling straight down. The farther out you travel, the more horizontal the precipitation would be. Water in rivers and seas would also flow toward the North Pole, meaning vast bulging oceans would collect at the center of the planet, leaving practically no water at the edges, according to Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. 

4. We would all get lost

It is likely that satellites would not exist if the Earth were flat, as they would have trouble orbiting a flat plane. "There are a number of satellite missions that society depends on that just wouldn't work," James Davis, a geophysicist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, said in a statement "I cannot think of how GPS would work on a flat Earth," said Davis. 

We depend on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) for anything from the GPS services on your phone, to travel information and supermarket just-in-time stock management to make sure produce arrives as fresh and as quickly as possible. And critically, emergency services use GPS to locate callers from their phone signal, the satellite communications could possibly save your life. 

It's hard to imagine a world without GPS, suffice to say we'd be lost. On the upside, at least on flat-Earth humans would have the horizontal rain to point us in the right — well, north — direction. 

5.  Some journeys would take forever  

Longer travel times can be expected, not just due to no-GPS navigation issues, but also because of the distances we would need to travel. According to flat-Earth belief, the Arctic lies in the center of the planet and Antarctica forms a giant ice wall around the edge; this wall conveniently stops people from literally falling off the face of Earth. But if you are unable to fly around the globe and instead are forced to fly across it, then travel times would increase significantly. For example, to fly from Australia (which is one side of the flat-Earth map) to a McMurdo station in Antarctica (on the other side of the flat-Earth map), you would need to fly across the entire Arctic, as well as North and South America. You can also forget about trips across Antarctica (though this has been achieved many times on a spherical Earth), as that pesky ice wall would prevent such travel. 

6.  No more auroras and we'd all be roasted  

On spherical Earth, the swirling molten metal surrounding our iron core generates electric currents that in turn create our protective magnetic field which curves around the planet from one pole to the other, according to NASA. But on a flat Earth, without a solid core generating a magnetic field that protective layer — the magnetosphere — would cease to exist. And so would auroras. Also called the Northern Lights, these sky shows form when charged particles from the sun bump into oxygen and nitrogen molecules in the magnetosphere, where they release energy in the form of incredible aurora light shows. 

Even so, the absence of auroras would be the least of our worries, as Earth would no longer be protected from solar winds. Earth and everything on its surface would be bombarded with harmful solar radiation, leaving a barren world akin to our neighbor Mars, according to NASA. 

 7. We'd all have to share the same night sky 

A flat-Earth would not be split into hemispheres like it is on our current orb: So night and day wouldn't be flip-flopped depending on whether you're in the Northern or Southern hemisphere. Also, the night sky no matter where you stood on the planetary disk. It sure would make stargazing easier, as you wouldn't have to travel to a different hemisphere to tick off all the targets on your astronomy bucket list. But isn't that part of the fun? 

If we all shared one view of just one portion of the night sky, we'd miss out on the many ground-based discoveries that have been made due to our access to a 360-degree view of the observable universe from Earth. We'd have to solely rely on space-based telescopes to widen our view of the cosmos. 

8.  Hurricanes would be a thing of the past 

Every year, hurricanes (also called typhoons and cyclones depending on the location where they form) cause unprecedented damage. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey alone caused $125 billion (£90 billion) worth of damage to the U.S., according to NOAA. 

The devastating rotating nature of these tropical storms stems from Earth's coriolis effect, which causes storms in the Northern Hemisphere to rotate counterclockwise and those in the Southern Hemisphere to rotate clockwise. However, on stationary, flat-Earth, no coriolis effect would be generated. No coriolis means no hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones. This is also why we don't see these types of storms between five degrees north and south of the equator, as the magnitude of the coriolis effect is zero at the equator, according to NASA.  

Additional resources: 

90 Years of Our Changing Views of Earth

Why some people believe the Earth is flat

Why are things in space the shape that they are?

This article was updated August 23, 2021.

Tropical Storm Elsa is approaching north Florida's Gulf Coast, with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h). The swirling storm is expected to drop up to 6 inches (15 centimeters) of rain, cause storm surge-related flooding and even trigger isolated tornadoes, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasted.

The storm is expected to make landfall later this morning or this afternoon. As of 8 a.m. ET on Wednesday (July 7), Elsa was churning over the ocean about 35 miles (55 kilometers) west of Cedar Key, Florida, and 115 miles (185 km) northwest of Tampa. The storm is moving northward at about 14 mph (22 km/h) and is expected to weaken only after it moves inland later today, the NHC said.

The first hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, Elsa reached Category 1 status on July 2, only to be downgraded to a tropical storm on Saturday (July 3), when the storm was about 40 miles (65 kilometers) south of Beata Island, part of the Dominican Republic, in the Caribbean Sea. The NHC had previously forecast that Elsa would again gain strength to reach hurricane status (when winds reach 74 to 95 mph, or 119 to 153 km/h); that did happen briefly Tuesday evening, but the storm weakened again this morning, The Weather Channel reported. 

Related: Hurricane season: How long it lasts and what to expect

The NHC is forecasting that Elsa will turn toward the north-northeast later Wednesday afternoon or tonight, and by late Thursday it should be moving even faster in the northeastward direction, as it treks across the southeastern U.S. and mid-Atlantic.

Hurricane conditions are expected someplace along the west coast of Florida from Chassahowitzka to the Steinhatchee River, where a hurricane warning is in effect. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the west coast of Florida from south of Chassahowitzka to the middle of Longboat Key, and north of the Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River. Tropical storm warnings are also in place from the mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia, to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.

Storm surges can be the most life-threatening effects of hurricanes, as rising water moves inland from the coast to inundate areas. Storm surge warnings are in effect for the west coast of Florida from the Middle of Longboat Key to the Aucilla River — that includes Tampa Bay — the NHC said. If you are located in one of these areas, the NHC said to take necessary actions to protect yourself and your property, including following any evacuation orders from local officials.

Elsa could spawn tornadoes across west-central to north Florida through Wednesday afternoon and through tonight across southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina, the NHC said. On Thursday (July 8), tornadoes could be a threat for the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia.

Not only is Elsa the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, but it's also the earliest fifth-named storm of a hurricane season on record, CNN reported. The Atlantic hurricane season, which lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30, is expected to produce a higher-than-average number of named storms (when winds reach 39 mph, or 63 km/h).

Originally published on Live Science.

The first hurricane of the 2021 season, named Elsa, formed Friday morning (July 2), and is on track to impact islands in the Caribbean Sea and possibly Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). 

Elsa — currently a Category 1 hurricane, with wind speeds between 74 and 95 mph (119 and 153 km/h) — is the earliest fifth named Atlantic storm on record, CNN reported. The four names on the 2021 list ahead of Elsa (Ana, Bill, Claudette and Danny) were given to tropical storms that didn't reach high enough wind speeds to qualify as hurricanes. 

With such an early start, it's possible that the 2021 hurricane season may rival that of 2020, which set a record with 30 named storms, beating the previous record holder of 28 storms named in 2005, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Of those 30 named storms of 2020, 11 made landfall in the United States. 

Related: Hurricane season: How long it lasts and what to expect

If Hurricane Elsa reaches Florida next week, it could impact the part of the coast where the deadly Surfside condo collapsed, CNN reported.

"It is possible that this area could see tropical storm-force winds," Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Friday, according to CNN. "Not guaranteed, but it is possible, and so our Department of Emergency Management is assuming that that will happen and making the necessary preparations to be able, obviously, to protect a lot of the equipment."

The "birth" of a hurricane requires two things: a weather disturbance, such as a thunderstorm, that pulls in warm surface air, and surface water that is at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27 degrees Celsius), according to NOAA. Such storms usually begin over the tropical ocean, where the seawater is hot enough and Earth's rotation helps them spin. However, Elsa got its start farther east than only one other storm on record — a 1933 storm, Brian McNoldy, a tropical weather expert at the University of Miami, posted on Twitter, according to The Washington Post. 

"This is truly bizarre (and 1933 was among the most active seasons ever)," McNoldy wrote in the tweet. Typically, storms form in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, instead of east of the Lesser Antilles, as Elsa did, The Washington Post reported.

What do predictions find?

Hurricane-level winds are expected to reach Windward Islands (Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia and Dominica) on Friday, and Haiti on Saturday (July 4), the NHC reported in a statement. It's possible that hurricane conditions will affect the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Jamaica on Saturday. 

Meanwhile, heavy rainfall from Hurricane Elsa is forecast to hit the Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Puerto Rico, southern Hispaniola and Jamaica will also see rain this weekend, with possible flooding and mudslides, the NHC said. Strong winds, storm surges and rainfall are expected to impact parts of Cuba and possibly the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas this weekend.

Early next week, the Florida Keys and possibly the Florida Peninsula may experience a storm surge, wind and rainfall. "However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend," so it's unclear at this point how Elsa will progress, and whether it will impact Florida and/or the Gulf Coast, the NHC said in the statement.

The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30. According to 2020 research published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, hurricanes are getting stronger as the world warms due to climate change.

Originally published on Live Science.

Prepare for some dark and stormy nights (and days). This year's Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30, will bring another wave of higher- than-average storm formation, following in the footsteps of 2020's record-shattering season, according to the latest forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

On Thursday (May 20), NOAA scientists predicted that we are most likely to see "above normal" hurricane activity, with a 70% probability of 13 to 20 named storms. Of those, six to 10 will become hurricanes and as many as five could strengthen into major hurricanes, with winds reaching at least 111 mph (179 km/h).

Better technology for storm detection and for understanding storm structure has also led NOAA experts to recalibrate their standards for what an "average" hurricane season looks like — and that average is now higher than it used to be, according to Matthew Rosencrans, hurricane season outlook lead for NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Related: Hurricane season: How long It lasts and what to expect

Previously, based on data from 1981 to 2010, 12 named storms was the average per season, with six storms becoming hurricanes and three classified as major hurricanes — those reaching Category 3, 4 or 5 in strength. But from now on, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) will look at storm activity using a dataset from a new 30-year period: 1991 to 2020. The new average number of storms is 14, with seven of those expected to become hurricanes, Rosencrans said at the NOAA briefing. (The average number of major hurricanes — three — remains the same.) This shift reflects not only improved storm detection, but also higher levels of storm activity over the past three decades. One explanation for this could be the presence of a a positive Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation — a cyclical variation in sea surface temperature that is currently in a warmer-than-average stage, which can increase Atlantic hurricane activity, NOAA says. 

Colorado State University's (CSU) Tropical Weather and Climate Research team released their predictions for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season on April 8, forecasting 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. But regardless of how many hurricanes are predicted, "it only takes one hurricane making landfall" to make it an active season for coastal residents, according to CSU.

"They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted," CSU says.

Records show that stronger, wetter storms are becoming more frequent, and a growing body of evidence suggests that climate change is driving this shift. 

Wind speeds in hurricanes that pummel Bermuda are more than twice as strong as they were sixty years ago, and they're drawing their destructive power from warming oceans, Live Science reported in March. Analysis of 4,000 tropical cyclones spanning four decades showed that such storms are forming more often and increasing in strength as global temperatures rise. Researchers' models have also shown that hurricanes during the past decade flooded coastal areas with 10% more rainfall due to climate change — and that number could rise to 30% before the end of the century.

Below average in the Central Pacific

Unlike the Atlantic hurricane season, the Central Pacific is expected to see average or even below-average storm formation, with only two to five tropical cyclones emerging (a typical season produces at least four cyclones), NOAA reported on May 19. 

Experts anticipate less activity this year because ocean temperatures are cooler than usual in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean where hurricanes form, "and because El Niño is not present to increase the activity," Rosencrans said in the statement. The Central Pacific hurricane season also lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30, according to NOAA.

Weather and climate researchers at the United Kingdom's national weather service — the Meteorological Office, or Met Office — expect an average hurricane season for the North Atlantic, predicting 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, in a forecast published on Thursday (May 20).

Last year, an extremely active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season broke records with 30 named storms, 12 of which made landfall in the continental United States (five of these slammed into Louisiana). The season started early, with nine named storms forming between May and July, and by September the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had used up its list of 21 Atlantic hurricane names and began naming storms after Greek letters, according to NOAA.

Prior to 2020, the most active Atlantic hurricane season was in 2005, with 28 named storms. That year marked the first time that the NHC used up its list of names and had to resort to Greek letters, Live Science previously reported.

The first of the 21 hurricane names on this year's NHC list is "Ana," followed by "Bill," "Claudette," "Danny" and "Elsa." However, it remains to be seen if there will be so many hurricanes that the NHC will require names beyond the last one on the list: "Wanda."

Originally published on Live Science.

Hurricanes are blasting Bermuda with wind speeds that have more than doubled in strength over the last 66 years, due to rising ocean temperatures in the region as a result of climate change, according to a new study.

Within a 62-mile (100 kilometers) radius of Bermuda, the average maximum wind speed of hurricanes increased from 35 to 73 mph (56 to 117 km/h) between 1955 and 2019, the researchers found. This is the equivalent of a 6 mph (10 km/h) increase every decade.

During this time, sea-surface temperatures in the region also increased by up to two degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius), according to the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series (BATS), a long-running dataset collected by the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences. 

Scientists already knew that higher sea surface temperatures fuel stronger tropical cyclones. But the new findings show that temperatures below the sea surface also play a key role in how these storms form. 

Related: The 20 costliest, most destructive hurricanes to hit the US

"Our research demonstrates the greater relevance of upper-ocean temperatures versus sea-surface temperatures alone in the prediction of hurricane intensity," lead author Samantha Hallam, a postgraduate student at the National Oceanographic Center and the University of Southampton in the U.K., told Live Science. 

Current hurricane forecasts rely heavily on sea-surface temperatures to make predictions. However, the researchers discovered that the temperature of the top 164 feet (50 meters) of the water column could be used to more accurately predict hurricane intensity.

Temperature and intensity 

Tropical cyclones — which include hurricanes in the North Atlantic Ocean and Northeast Pacific, cyclones in the South Pacific and Indian Oceans, and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific — arise when low-pressure atmospheric systems form over patches of warm water near the equator.

Warm sea-surface temperatures cause hot air that's full of moisture to rise into the atmosphere, creating a patch of low-air pressure below. Air from the surrounding areas then gets pulled in to replace the "empty" low-pressure spot. This creates a loop of rising warm air pulling in colder air, and causes wind speeds to increase. Meanwhile, the rising, moisture-rich air cools, and the water in it forms clouds that begin to spiral in the updraft, according to NASA.

During this formation process, heat from the ocean is lost to the atmosphere, and surface waters are cooled. But if the underlying waters are also warm, these warmer waters will rise to the surface because they are less dense; once there, they can continue the storm formation process. This mechanism may be a key reason why hurricanes have become so much stronger over the past several decades.

Using data collected from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) Hydrostation S site — a deep-water research mooring in the Sargasso Sea to the south of Bermuda — scientists analyzed temperature changes throughout the top 984 feet (300 m) of the water column. They found that the average temperature across the top 164 feet (50 m) of the water column, which rose between 0.9 to 1.3 F (0.5 to 0.7 C) from 1955 to 2019, was actually more closely correlated to hurricane intensity than sea-surface temperatures alone.

"Both the increasing surface and subsurface temperatures, particularly in the top 50-meter [164 feet] ocean layer, play an important role as hurricanes intensify," Hallam said.

Accurate predictions 

Hurricanes across the Atlantic are also strengthening at a similar rate to those in Bermuda, Hallam noted. 

"If ocean temperatures continue to rise, further increases in hurricane intensity could be seen," Hallam said. "This could lead to more coastal damage where hurricanes make landfall."

Researchers believe that subsurface temperatures should be used to help more accurately predict hurricane intensity in the future, especially in places like Bermuda.

"We found that when we use the average temperature through the top 50 m [164 feet] ocean layer, it is a closer predictor of hurricane potential intensity than by using sea surface temperature alone," Hallam said. 

The researchers also got a chance to test out subsurface temperature predictions during Hurricane Paulette, which made landfall in Bermuda on Sep. 14, 2020. This resulted in some "promising results" that could be used to help local forecasters in the future, Hallam said.

The study was published online Feb. 12 in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

Originally published on Live Science.

With the formation of tropical storm Theta, 2020 has now logged more tropical cyclones than ever recorded.

Theta is 2020's 29th named storm in the Atlantic Ocean. Theta, which doesn't pose a danger to land, formed a few hundred miles off the coast of Liberia Monday (Nov. 9), shattering the record for total number of named storms in the Atlantic hurricane season. (When a tropical cyclone's sustained winds reach 39 to 73 mph (63 to 118 km/h), it is considered a tropical storm and gets a name.)

The previous record for busiest hurricane season was 28, set in 2005 — the only other time in history that the National Hurricane Center has exhausted its list of Atlantic storm names and moved on to Greek letters. In 2005, the final storm didn't form until late December, so there's still plenty of time for 2020 to run up the score.

Climate change is making hurricanes more powerful and dangerous, on average, but it's not yet clear whether it's making them more common, according to Yale Climate Connections.

Related: A history of destruction: 8 great hurricanes

In the U.S., the Gulf of Mexico took the brunt of the beating from this Atlantic storm season. A record-breaking five named storms made landfall in Louisiana. The worst of these was Hurricane Laura in August, one of the most powerful storms ever to hit the state — arriving just after the weaker Tropical Storm Marco. After Laura left thousands homeless, three more storms made landfall along the Louisiana coastline and several more made landfall in the surrounding region before passing over Louisiana.

All told, the 2020 Atlantic season's death toll runs into the hundreds. Hurricane Laura alone killed 31 people in Haiti according to the Jamaica Observer and 28 in Louisiana, according to Fox 8. Hurricane Eta left 150 dead or missing in Guatemala, according to CBS News.

Powerful hurricanes aren't the only dramatic symptom of climate change to impact the U.S. this year. Wildfires turned the skies orange over the West Coast, forcing tens of thousands to evacuate across several states and killing dozens. And the Harvard School of Public Health says that climate change raises the risk of pandemics, and has helped spread insect-borne illnesses like Lyme disease.

The western Pacific has also had its share of dangerous tropical cyclones this year. Super Typhoon Goni, the strongest storm of the year according to CNN, hit the Philippines in early November.

Originally published on Live Science.

Hurricane Zeta wasn't supposed to be this bad. 

On Saturday (Oct. 24), National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasters looking at the weather system — called Tropical Depression Twenty Eight — wrote that it would likely become a tropical storm, but that cool waters in the Gulf of Mexico made further strengthening unlikely. Now, it's Wednesday (Oct. 28), and Zeta is hitting Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane — the record-breaking fifth tropical cyclone to make landfall in Louisiana and the ninth to make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico this year.

So what happened?

The early predictions were right — Zeta weakened significantly by Tuesday (Oct. 27), torn apart after a hurricane-strength landfall on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Zetat lost its shape and meteorologists saw its sustained wind speed drop to 65 mph (105 km/h). 

But by yesterday, it was clear that the storm would likely regain strength. At 10 p.m. EDT Tuesday, the NHC wrote that the clouds above Zeta were becoming more organized as the storm moved toward warmer water in the northern Gulf, a signature of a storm about to strengthen.

"The improving cloud pattern of Zeta is usually one that favors intensification in the short term," the NHC wrote, "and sometimes that strengthening is on the rapid side."

Sure enough, the storm strengthened rapidly over the course of Wednesday morning and afternoon, regaining hurricane status and then strengthening to a Category 2 storm before landfall, with 110 mph (180 km/h) sustained winds. A powerful block of air moving across Texas is at the same time shoving the storm eastward as it moves north. The storm's current track takes it right through eastern Louisiana toward Mississippi and Alabama, with the eye likely passing close to New Orleans.

Related: A history of destruction: 8 great hurricanes

The most dangerous storm surge is expected to the east of New Orleans, with 6 to 9 feet (1.8 to 2.7 meters) of surge likely between the Pearl River on the Louisiana-Mississippi border and Dauphin Island, Alabama. The storm surge around New Orleans itself is forecast only 1 to 2 feet lower, and is still very dangerous. At least 1 to 3 feet (30 to 90 centimeters) of surge is likely across a region stretching from the central Louisiana coast to Yankeetown, Florida.

Zeta is expected to move fast across the U.S., bringing damaging wind, dumping rain and triggering floods across Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia through Thursday (Oct. 29). Powerful wind is likely across the southern Appalachians, the NHC wrote.

It's not yet November and Zeta is already the 27th Atlantic tropical cyclone of 2020, nearing the record of 28 set in 2005 — the only other year during which the NHC exhausted its prepared list of storm names and moved on to Greek letters. The final storm of 2005, also named Zeta, didn't form until late December. This is the first year when any Greek letter storms have made landfall in the U.S. Zeta is the third, after Tropical Storm Beta (which made landfall in Texas) and Hurricane Delta (which made landfall in western Louisiana).

Zeta will also be the first 110 mph-plus hurricane to make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico this late in the year since Hurricane Kate in 1985, as Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach noted on Twitter.

Up until this point, the New Orleans region has actually had an easier time this year than western Louisiana, which weathered a barrage of storms in a six-week period (the most intense of which was Hurricane Laura.) Many people were still homeless after Hurricane Laura when Delta hit.

Originally published on Live Science.

Hurricane Delta is on pace to make landfall in western Louisiana Friday evening (Oct. 9), not far from the still-devastated area where Hurricane Laura made landfall in late August.

Delta is a major, Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph (185 km/h) and still strengthening and growing in size as it churns over the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Its storm surge threatens an area extending from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. And in Louisiana's worst-hit region, the storm surge could reach 7 to 11 feet (2.1 to 3.4 meters).

The storm's winds are expected to peak overnight at around 125 mph (200 km/h) and then weaken slightly just before landfall. There is still an outside chance that it could go through a "rapid intensification" process before landfall and grow even more powerful, the NHC said, but that's not likely.

Texas and Louisiana residents could experience hurricane force winds as soon as Friday afternoon, the NHC said. This will be its second landfall, after a strike on the Yucatan Peninsula, which prompted tens of thousands to evacuate in a region still recovering from the deadly Tropical Storm Gamma, according to Univision. 

The flood risk from this storm is at least as serious as the potential for wind damage. Significant flash flooding and river flooding are expected across much of the central Gulf Coast and possible across an inland region including east Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia and the Florida panhandle over the next three days.

Tropical storm-force winds could reach as far north as Tennessee and Arkansas by Friday evening, though the storm is expected to weaken significantly after the eye reaches the coastline.

Related: A history of destruction: 8 great hurricanes

Right now, Delta's eye is forecast to make landfall just 10 miles (16 km) east of where Hurricane Laura did six weeks ago, in the region of Lake Charles. Southeastern Louisiana residents were without power for weeks and many are living in tents, according to KPLC.

"Hurricane Laura Aftermath," an 8,400-member Facebook group where impacted people share resources and discuss efforts to salvage damaged homes, now features posts from people documenting their evacuation before this new storm arrives.

Delta and Laura aren't even the full story of this hurricane season for Louisiana. Hurricane Sally and Tropical Storm Beta both hit the Gulf Coast after Laura — Sally prompted evacuations and caused flooding in a region stretching from New Orleans to Florida, and Beta slammed into Texas and caused heavy rain and wind across Louisiana.

Bill Karins, an NBC meteorologist, compared Lake Charles' 2020 hurricane season to 2004, when three storms hit a single county in Central Florida.

Hurricanes haven't been the most attention-grabbing natural disasters in the United States this year, with apocalyptic wildfires blanketing the West Coast in dangerous smoke. But the 2020 season has been by far the busiest on record up to this point.

Delta is named for a Greek letter because the alphabetical list of names the NHC prepared for Atlantic storms ran out before the end of the season. That's only happened once before, in 2005, when there were 28 storms, with the 25th forming on Nov. 15. In 2020, there have been 25 so far with Delta, and there's plenty of hurricane season left to go.

More intense hurricanes, like worsening wildfires, are consequences of climate change. And as Earth continues to warm, it's likely that future hurricane seasons will feature even worse storms than 2020 or 2005.

Originally published on Live Science.

Hurricane Delta is whirling toward the Gulf Coast and is forecast to approach Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula tonight (Oct. 6) as a Category 4 storm before threatening Louisiana and Mississippi Friday (Oct. 9). This 25th-named storm is yet one more sign that climate change is brewing more active hurricane seasons.

Delta is the fourth tropical cyclone to form since the National Hurricane Center (NHC) exhausted its prepared list of 21 names and began using letters from the Greek alphabet. Delta strengthened rapidly between yesterday (Oct. 5) and today, reaching maximum wind speed of 115 mph (185 km/h) by 11 a.m. EDT this morning, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. The hurricane is expected to strengthen further, reaching 140 mph (225 km/h) by 11 p.m. EDT tonight, or Category 4 status. When it makes landfall in the United States, the NHC predicts peak wind speeds of 125 mph (200 km/h), again in the Category 3 range.

Wind is only part of the story though. As with most hurricanes, Delta will be most dangerous as a source of flooding.

Related: A history of destruction: 8 great hurricanes

An "extremely dangerous" storm surge is likely along the Yucatan Peninsula, where heavy rains will cause further flooding until midweek, according to the NHC. People in the area should watch out for "significant" flash flooding and mudslides.

A "life-threatening" storm surge is also likely along the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts when Delta arrives, the NHC warned. And driving rain could cause flash floods as far inland as Tennessee and as far afield as the Cayman Islands and Cuba.

Right now, the hurricane is not expected to seriously impact Florida, because a high pressure "ridge" over the state will likely steer Delta northwest and off its current track, the NHC said. The details of how this turn happens will be important, and will probably determine where exactly the hurricane makes landfall.

Delta will be the second tropical cyclone and first hurricane named with a Greek letter to impact the mainland United States. The NHC ran out of names only once before, in 2005 — previously the most busy storm year on record. No Greek-letter-named storms reached the mainland that year. This year, Tropical Storm Beta made landfall in Texas as a relatively weak storm that killed one person and created an emergency in an area stretching from Texas to Louisiana, which was still reeling from the more devastating Hurricanes Laura and Sally.

As of last week, some people in the worst-hit Lake Charles region of western Louisiana were still living in tents as a result of those hurricanes, according to WTVY. It has been 40 days since Hurricane Laura caused a 6-foot (1.8 meter) storm surge in the state, widespread flooding and power outages. Thirty-two out of the 77 people Laura killed died in Louisiana.

Climate change is making hurricanes stronger than they were even decades ago, as Live Science previously reported. And if current trends continue, 2020’s hurricane season will blow 2005 out of the water.

In 2005, the 25th named storm of the year was Gamma. (It wasn't named Delta because meteorologists missed a cyclone beforehand and thought Gamma was the 24th storm.) The 2005 Tropical Storm Gamma didn't form until Nov. 15 — 41 days later in the season than this year’s Hurricane Delta, which formed on Oct. 5.

By the time Zeta formed on Dec. 30, 2005 — the final storm of that season — 2005 had seen 28 storms. With nearly three months to go before that date, the 2020 season has already seen 25.

Originally published on Live Science.

If you live or like to vacation along the world's coastlines, chances are good you've been affected by a tropical storm or hurricane.

Hurricanes, which are more broadly called "tropical cyclones" because they originate over Earth's tropical oceans, are some of nature's largest and fiercest storms. They get their name from Hurican, the Carib god of evil, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 

Worldly windstorms

Tropical cyclones form in most of the world's tropical oceans, but always at least 300 miles (480 kilometers) north or south of the equator. Any closer to the equator than this, and the inertial force that causes storms to spin to the right in the Northern Hemisphere and to the left in the Southern Hemisphere, called the coriolis force, won't cause the storm system to spin. 

When they form in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific Oceans, tropical cyclones are called hurricanes. In the western North Pacific, the same type of storms are called typhoons. And in the South Pacific and Indian Oceans, they are called cyclones. 

The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June through November. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from mid-May through November. Typhoons in the North Pacific occur year-round but peak in late August. And in the South Pacific, the cyclone season begins in October and ends in May.

In the Atlantic, hurricanes typically follow one of three paths, according to NOAA's National Hurricane Center:

• Originating off the West Coast of Africa near the Cape Verde Islands and traveling west toward the Caribbean and the East Coast of the United States.
• Originating in the western Caribbean, and moving into the U.S. Gulf Coast, or along the U.S. East Coast.
• Originating in the Gulf of Mexico and crashing into the Gulf Coast states, anywhere between Texas and Florida.

How hurricanes form

As with any weather event, certain atmospheric ingredients must be in place for a hurricane to cook up over the open ocean. According to NOAA's National Weather Service, these include:

• Warm ocean waters of at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27 Celsius) extending from the sea surface to a depth of 150 feet (46 meters) underwater.
• A moist and unstable atmosphere. In other words, an atmosphere with high humidity at upper levels and one in which air has a tendency to rise. 
• A pre-existing disturbance near surface levels, such as a complex of thunderstorms, which meteorologists call tropical easterly waves. 
• Sufficient distance (at least 300 miles, or 480 km) from the equator.
• Little to no wind shear, meaning wind speed and direction varies little between the surface and the troposphere, the lowest level of Earth's atmosphere, which stretches tens of thousands of feet above the surface.

When a storm forms under these minimum criteria, it is deemed a tropical cyclone, or more specifically, a tropical disturbance. At this initial stage, the disturbance is essentially a cluster of marine clouds and thunderstorms, but if ocean temperatures remain sufficiently balmy, the disturbance will continue to strengthen. And as the system becomes slightly more organized it may start to circulate. When the storm system's winds begin to circulate around a well-defined center, but its maximum sustained wind speeds have not exceeded 38 mph (61 km/h), the storm becomes categorized as a "tropical depression." It's at this stage that the storm earns a name.

Related: Storm targets: Where the hurricanes hit (infographic)

Once maximum sustained winds reach between 39 and 73 mph (63 to 117 km/h), the cyclone is classified as a "tropical storm." And when a storm's sustained winds reach 74 mph (119 km/h) or greater, the cyclone is classified as a hurricane — or typhoon if it's in the North Pacific, and cyclone if in the South Pacific.

How hurricanes are categorized

Hurricanes are categorized according to the speed of their maximum sustained winds. The scale used for this purpose, called the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, was developed in 1971 by civil engineer Herbert Saffir and by meteorologist and then-director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center, Bob Simpson. The Saffir-Simpson scale rates a hurricane's severity from 1 (very dangerous) to 5 (catastrophic), based on the following wind speeds: 

• Category 1: Winds of 74-95 mph (119-153 km/h)
• Category 2: Winds of 96-110 mph (154-177 km/h)
• Category 3: Winds of 111-129 mph (178-208 km/h)
• Category 4: Winds of 130-156 mph (209-251 km/h)
• Category 5: Winds exceeding 157 mph (252 km/h)

Hurricanes that reach Category 3 or higher are considered "major hurricanes" because of their potential to cause significant damage and loss of life. Similarly, typhoons with winds exceeding 150 mph (241 km/h) earn the title of "super typhoon."

Although winds are the most common way to measure how intense a tropical cyclone is, central barometric pressure, which is the air pressure exerted by Earth's atmosphere on the storm's geographical center, is another way meteorologists measure a storm's intensity. In general, the lower a storm's central pressure, the stronger the storm. While lower pressure and higher winds tend to go hand-in-hand, one isn't necessarily indicative of the other. For example, as of 2019, Hurricane Wilma (2005), a Category 5 hurricane, held the record for the lowest central pressure (882 millibars) of any Atlantic hurricane, but Hurricane Allen (1980), also a Category 5 hurricane, ranks as the Atlantic hurricane with the strongest winds (its sustained winds reached 190 mph, or 306 km/h). 

Beware of these features and hazards

The main physical features of a hurricane are its rainbands, eye and eyewall. These features take shape as surface air from all directions spirals in toward the center of the storm in a counter-clockwise pattern (or clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere). 

Because this converging air has nowhere else to go it rises, creating a column of forceful rising air at the storm's center known as the eyewall. Rising air encourages clouds and thunderstorms to develop, which is why the eyewall is surrounded by a ring of towering thunderstorms that inflict some of the cylone's most severe punishment. Curved bands of clouds and thunderstorms trail away from the eyewall in a spiral fashion. These rainbands, which typically extend outward 50 to 300 miles (80 to 483 km) from the cyclone's center, can produce heavy bursts of rain and wind, as well as tornadoes.

Related: Hurricane preparation: What to do

The eyewall's strong rotation of air creates an empty vortex at its center. This empty area is the eye of the storm, and spans a distance about 20 to 40 miles (32 to 64 km) in diameter on average, according to NOAA. Inside the eye, air from the top of the cyclone sinks back down toward the surface to fill the void of the air that was pulled into the storm. Sinking air inhibits cloud formation, which is why the eye has calm winds and clear skies. A tropical cyclone is said to have made landfall when its eye hits the shoreline.

Violent winds are not the only hazard of hurricanes or cyclones. Storm surges — walls of seawater that are pushed toward shore by the sheer force of a storm's winds — can increase water levels by 15 feet (4.5 m) or more above the predicted astronomical tide. In 2017, the National Weather Service began issuing storm surge watches and warnings to alert areas along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the unique risk for life-threatening inundation from approaching tropical cyclones. 

Flooding caused by storm surges and by heavy rainfall is a major hazard of hurricanes. According to a 2014 study published in The Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, storm surge flooding has been the leading cause of hurricane-related fatalities for the past 50 years. 

Related: The costliest hurricanes in history

Who picks hurricane names?

Hurricane names are determined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), an intergovernmental organization headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, that serves as the international authority on weather, climate and hydrology. The WMO maintains six lists of alphabetical names that are recycled and reused every six years for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Ocean basins. It also composes separate lists for the globe's five other cyclone zones, including the western Pacific, northern Indian, southwestern Indian, southeastern Indian, and Australian Ocean basins. 

According to the National Hurricane Center, the current practice of assigning male and female names to hurricanes wasn't put into place until 1979. Before this, only female names were used. And for hundreds of years before that, storms often took the name of the holiday or saint's day on which they occurred. 

Names are preferred to numbers because they're easier to remember. The one exception to this no-numbering rule is tropical depressions; because they aren't named, they take the title of whatever number cyclone they are within a particular season-year, that is, "Tropical Depression Three," or "Tropical Depression Fifteen," etc.

If a storm is ever so deadly or destructive that the future use of its name would be insensitive, that name is retired and a replacement name is chosen. For example, the names Katrina and Sandy have been removed from the list of Atlantic cyclone names because of the astounding amount of destruction and death that resulted from Hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Sandy (2012). More recently, Matthew (2016), Maria (2017), Florence (2018), and Michael (2018) were retired. 

During extremely busy Atlantic hurricane seasons, all the names on the names list may be used up. When this happens, subsequent storms receive a name from the Greek alphabet (Alpha, Beta, Gamma and so on). This has only ever happened twice, according to NOAA: in 2005 and again in 2020. 

Hurricanes and climate change

Hurricanes feed off of heat energy, so as Earth's global temperatures continue to rise, hurricanes are bound to be affected. So far, it's not evident that hurricanes are necessarily forming more often because of rising temperatures, although scientists do predict that hurricane activity and intensity will likely increase in future years. 

There is, however, a clear link between global warming and an increase in the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes. Climate change also appears to be causing hurricanes to intensify more rapidly than ever before, and to produce far more rain, according to Yale Climate Connections. These trends are likely a result of higher ocean temperatures and higher water vapor content in the atmosphere as the air heats up, according to NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. 

Warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea are already contributing to the active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA reported. Similar conditions have been producing busier-than-normal hurricane seasons since 1995. Scientists predict the annual trend of more frequent extreme storms and record-breaking hurricane seasons to continue as long as climate change persists. 

Additional resources:

• Track active tropical cyclones at NOAA's National Hurricane Center.
• Discover which cyclone names are on this year's list at the World Meteorological Organization.
• Learn how to prepare for a hurricane at Ready.gov.

Wildfires are burning the West Coast, hurricanes are flooding the Southeast — and some of those storms are rising from the dead. 

"Zombie storms," which regain strength after initially petering out, are the newest addition to the year 2020. And these undead weather anomalies are becoming more common thanks to climate change.

"Because 2020, we now have Zombie Tropical Storms. Welcome back to the land of the living, Tropical Storm #Paulette," the National Weather Service wrote on Twitter on Tuesday (Sept. 22).

Earlier this month, Tropical storm Paulette formed in the Atlantic Ocean and made landfall in Bermuda as a Category 1 hurricane, according to CNN. It then strengthened over land into a Category 2 hurricane, before weakening and dying off five and half days later. 

Related: The reality of climate change: 10 myths busted

But then, Paulette opened her frightening eye once again. She wasn't gone. 

Paulette regained strength and became a tropical storm once more about 300 miles (480 kilometers) away from the Azores Islands on Monday (Sept. 21), according to CNN. The term "zombie storm" is new, and though the phenomenon has been recorded before, it is thought to be rare. 

But zombie storms are going to happen more often, said Donald Wuebbles, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. And as with other natural disasters that have been intensifying in recent years, such as wildfires and hurricanes, climate change and rapid global warming are to blame. 

There has been an "extreme amount of heating of the Gulf (of Mexico), particularly in some of the ocean areas off of the Carribean," Wuebbles told Live Science. The Gulf of Mexico, where many hurricanes gain strength before hitting the U.S., is particularly vulnerable to global warming because the gulf waters are very shallow — and thus heat up easily, Wuebbles said.

Atlantic Ocean storms typically form in warmer parts of the ocean near Africa, due to a combination of atmospheric and ocean conditions. They then "race across" the ocean toward the Americas, Wuebbles said. Hurricanes need warm water and moist air to form, according to the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Storms grow if there's a continuous supply of energy from warm water and air, and they weaken when they move over cooler waters or over land.

"If they're not so strong, in the past, they would just die out," over the Atlantic, Wuebbles said. But now, they reach warm water in the Carribean region and pick up energy again, he added. This is also true for storms that haven't died out yet. For instance, about a month ago, Hurricane Laura strengthened overnight from a Category 1 storm to a Category 4 storm because it picked up energy from warm water in the Gulf, Wuebbles said. 

With a warming globe, "storms are likely to become more intense," he added. That means the idea of "zombie storms" may be here to stay. 

Thankfully Paulette seems to have become a post-tropical cyclone once more and will die out soon, according to the National Hurricane Center. 

Originally published on Live Science.

Floods and heavy rain have closed schools and businesses across southeastern Texas, as tropical storm Beta moves across the region.

Beta is weaker than initial projections, but it is still dumping a dangerous amount of water on the region. Its slow progress makes the situation worse, because there's more time for rain to fall on impacted areas.

Related: 10 signs that Earth's climate is off the rails

"This is a very slow-moving storm that has tracked inland. Please be weather aware and stay off the roadways unless travel is necessary," Houston police chief Art Acevedo wrote on Twitter.

Flash floods will be likely across southeastern Texas for days, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

In Galveston, a city on a barrier island off the Texas coast, Beta brought high tides 3 feet (91 centimeters) higher than usual. That caused serious damage to coastal dunes that protect the island from flooding, according to The Daily News — compounding damage the dunes took from Hurricane Laura less than a month ago.

Once Beta is done with Texas, the storm is expected to move out over water again, before making a second landfall in Louisiana, according to the NHC. Many in that region, particularly Lake Charles, are still homeless or without power after Laura, according to local TV station 7-KPLC. Some may never rebuild at this point, the news station reported.

Beta is the first storm named after a Greek letter ever to hit the mainland United States. (Alpha hit Portugal last week, and the six Greek-letter storms that formed in 2005 hit Atlantic islands or petered out over open water.) The NHC uses Greek letters when it runs out of names from its alphabetical-order list prepared before hurricane season. This has only happened once before, in 2005. 

Related: A history of destruction: 8 great hurricanes

The first half of hurricane season this year has been by far the busiest ever, exhausting the list much faster than 2005, when Greek letters weren't called on until late October. There have been 23 named storms so far this year, and there are 22 letters left in the Greek alphabet.

Scientists believe that as climate change warms the oceans, hurricanes will become more powerful. This year's extraordinary hurricane season on the East Coast has coincided with a brutal series of heat waves and associated wildfires on the West Coast, which has been blanketed in smoke. (Wildfire season is also getting worse thanks to climate change.) Most Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms happen during September and October, though they often extend into November. In the 2005 season, the final storm didn't peter out over water until after the start of the new year.

Originally published on Live Science.

Hurricane season has been so active this year that the number of named storms has already exceeded the number of official names.

The season officially begins on June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30; but this year, it was off to an early start with tropical storms Arthur and Bertha, which formed on May 16 and May 27, respectively. 

On Sept. 18, tropical storm Wilfred claimed the list's 21st and final name, which means that subsequent storms will "go Greek," representatives with the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in a statement. (Atlantic storms never get Q, U, X, Y or Z names.) Storms after Wilfred will now take their names from the Greek alphabet; subtropical storm Alpha formed on the same day as Wilfred, and was soon followed by tropical storm Beta, which is expected to make landfall tonight (Sept. 21) on the Gulf Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Related: Hurricane preparation: What to do

"This is only the second time the Greek alphabet has been used to name storms," NOAA says. "The first was during the 2005 hurricane season, where the last named storm was Zeta" — the sixth letter in the Greek alphabet list, according to NOAA.

Atlantic tropical storms have been named since the early 1950s; only women's names were used from 1953 until 1979, the NHC says. 

Today, storms get their names from six lists of 21 names — male and female — that are maintained and updated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), according to the NHC. The lists are rotated so that all names are recycled every six years. However, some names are retired if they are attached to a storm that proves to be especially deadly or destructive. Retired names in recent years include Irene (2011), Sandy (2012), Harvey (2017) and Michael (2018). 

The Greek alphabet list, also established by the WMO, provides an additional 26 names — presumably enough to carry through to the end of hurricane season on Nov. 30. 

Alpha, the 22nd named storm in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, made landfall in Portugal with maximum sustained winds nearing 45 mph (72 km/h). Tropical storm Beta currently has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (80 km/h) and is expected to drench parts of Texas and Louisiana with rainfall and coastal flooding, The Weather Channel reported.

Originally published on Live Science.

Hurricane Sally is strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected make landfall somewhere on the central Gulf Coast later today (Sept. 14).

The slow-moving storm has been drifting northwest off the coast toward Louisiana, and was officially upgraded from tropical storm to hurricane this afternoon. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said it's still too soon to tell where exactly its center will move onshore. It's packing an "extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge" that threatens people living on the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coastlines, the NHC said. And with forecasts suggesting that it will remain partly over the Gulf's warm, storm-feeding water as it moves ashore, the NHC said Sally could remain a dangerous hurricane for a long time after landfall.

Dangerous flash floods are also likely, according to the NHC, as well as major flooding along rivers and in urban areas.

Related: A history of destruction: 8 great hurricanes

The Gulf Coast has already taken a beating this hurricane season, with the one-two punch of tropical storm Marco and the monster hurricane Laura hitting western Louisiana in the same week in August. According to the Post and Courier, 134,000 people were still without power in Louisiana this past weekend, two weeks after Laura. 

Twenty-three thousand are still living in Red Cross housing from that last pair of storms in Louisiana, the Post and Courier reported, though they've gotten less attention than the more than 100,000 people fleeing massive wildfires on the West Coast. Scientists believe that both the more intense hurricanes and hotter and larger wildfires occurring right now are consequences of climate change.

While this storm is the only Atlantic cyclone posing an immediate threat to land, it's not the only storm in the Atlantic. The NHC is simultaneously tracking four other significant storms right now, including hurricane Paulette, which passed directly over Bermuda today (several hundred miles east of North Carolina). None besides Sally and Paulette pose immediate threats to land.

Sally, like most hurricanes this year, is also a record setter: Atlantic cyclones are named in alphabetical order as they reach tropical storm strength, and no "S" storm has ever come this early before. Sally was named on Sept. 12. That's 21 days earlier than the previous "S" record-holder: Stan in 2005.

With Tropical Storms Teddy and Vicky forming in the Atlantic this morning, 21 and 22 days earlier than record-holders, Azores (which reached Tropical Storm strength on Oct. 4, 2005, but was named out of order), and Tammy (Oct. 5, 2005). Teddy is already forecast to become a major hurricane and is expected to move north through the Atlantic without impacting the Carribean or North American mainland.

Related: 10 signs that Earth's climate is off the rails

There's only one slot left on the NHC's list of Atlantic storm names: Wilfred. (The list skips the letters Q, X, Y and Z.)

Once the prepared names are exhausted, the NHC will move on to Greek letters for storms. In 2005, the previous busiest storm year, six Greek-letter storms formed, culminating in Zeta (the sixth of 24 possible Greek letters) on Dec. 30.

Most tropical storms form during August, September and October.

Originally published on Live Science.

A climate pattern known as La Niña is emerging in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, supporting climate scientists' predictions for an active Atlantic hurricane season. La Niña could also bring warmer, drier conditions to southern states in the U.S. — many of which are already experiencing extreme drought.

La Niña ("The Girl" in Spanish) and its counterpart El Niño ("The Boy") are part of a climate pattern known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which affects sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, close to the equator. During a La Niña cycle, waters in that ocean region are cooler than average.

El Niño conditions — warmer-than-average waters in the equatorial Pacific — help to suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic Ocean. La Niña does the opposite; under La Niña, cooler Pacific waters weaken wind shear over the tropical Atlantic Basin and the Caribbean Sea, enabling more hurricanes to take shape, scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in a statement released on Sept. 10. 

Related: A history of destruction: 8 great hurricanes

There is a 75% chance that La Niña's cooler-than-average sea-surface temperatures will persist from December 2020 through February 2021, according to the statement. La Niña conditions last appeared during the winter months of 2017 through 2018, with El Niño developing in 2018 through 2019. 

A third part of the ENSO cycle — when ocean waters are neither warmer nor colder than average, sometimes called "La Nada" ("The Nothing" in Spanish) — is neutral, and does not significantly influence global climate patterns, NOAA says.

La Niña's presence over the winter months will also be felt across the U.S.; the climate pattern brings cooler, wetter conditions to northern states, while southern states will be warmer and have less precipitation than they normally do, according to NOAA.

In August, NOAA experts predicted that the 2020 hurricane season would be one of the busiest on record. One of the factors behind that prediction was growing evidence that ocean conditions were trending toward La Niña; though La Niña doesn't actively fuel hurricanes, it doesn't suppress their formation like El Niño does, Live Science previously reported.

"Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was consistent with La Niña conditions," researchers with the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center said yesterday (Sept. 10) in a statement.

NOAA's August outlook predicted a hurricane season with an 85% chance of above-normal activity, capable of producing up to 25 named storms — the highest number ever predicted — with winds of at least 39 mph (63 km/h).

Indeed, hurricane season began early this year, with the first named storm, Arthur, forming on May 17 (the "official" start of Atlantic hurricane season is June 1). Nine named storms emerged by the end of July. The 12th storm, Hurricane Laura, barreled into coastal Louisiana on Aug. 27 as a Category 4 storm, with winds topping 150 mph (240 km/h) and a storm surge described by the National Hurricane Center as "unsurvivable," Live Science reported. It was the strongest hurricane to strike the Gulf Coast since 2005's Hurricane Katrina. 

Other factors are also driving this year's unusually active hurricane season, including an enhanced West African monsoon; weaker trade winds in the tropical Atlantic Ocean; and warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and in the tropical Atlantic, NOAA scientists reported in August. 

These conditions, which have persisted for decades, are thought to be responsible for more active hurricane seasons overall, dating from 1995. What's more, they show no signs of dissipating, hinting that highly active hurricane seasons will be more frequent in the years to come, NOAA's lead hurricane season forecaster Gerry Bell said in August.

"We're not seeing an end to this era," Bell said. "We're 26 years into it, and we don't know how long it's going to last."

Originally published on Live Science.

Tropical storm Laura is now a hurricane, and it's expected to grow even more powerful as it whirls toward Louisiana and Texas.

The storm passed over Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday morning (Aug. 25), strengthening into a hurricane even as the scattered remains of tropical storm Marco drifted away from the site of their Louisiana landfall. Laura is expected to pick up energy from the warm gulf waters in the next couple days, then make landfall as a Category 3 "major hurricane" — 2020's first — with wind speeds of at least 111 mph (178 km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

As with most tropical cyclones, the most significant threat from Laura is flooding, not wind. Already, as a tropical storm, it has killed 13 people on the island of Hispaniola. Eleven of those who died were in Haiti and two in the Dominican Republic, according to The Weather Channel. Haitian authorities posted this video of the flooding:

In Puerto Rico, El Nuevo Dia reported that two teenagers spent all night on a rock in the middle of the Toro Negro River, in Ciales, while rescue teams tried to reach them through the floodwaters. The 19-year-old and 17-year-old arrived at the popular El Morón pool in the river, seeing sunny skies despite the storm warnings. They became stuck as Laura dumped water into the river, and remained trapped as the floodwaters and storm conditions thwarted multiple rescue attempts. By early morning, the water levels subsided enough for rescuers to reach them.

Related: Hurricane season: How long it lasts and what to expect

When Laura hits the U.S. coast Thursday morning (Aug. 27), it will push an even stronger storm surge ahead of it and dump much more rain than Marco. According to the NHC, the storm surge between High Island, Texas and Morgan City, Louisiana could reach 7 to 11 feet (2.1 to 3.4 meters). Four to 6 feet (1.2 to 1.8 m) are possible across an even wider area, between Port Bolivar, Texas (just east of Galveston) and the mouth of the Mississippi River, just west of New Orleans. Storm surges of at least 2 feet up to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.2 m) are expected all the way from San Luis Pass, Texas (south of Houston) to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, a span of 388 miles (625 kilometers).

These details could change as the hurricane approaches land, but time to prepare is limited. Tropical storm-force winds, meaning winds of 39-73 mph (63–118 km/h), could arrive in the area as early as Wednesday afternoon (Aug. 26), according to the NHC.

Louisiana and Texas have both issued evacuation orders along their coasts. That means that six states have ordered natural disaster evacuations this month, with people in California, Oregon, Washington and Colorado having to flee severe wildfires. As Live Science previously reported, evacuations during a global pandemic can add another layer of complexity to an already fraught situation. Evacuations will potentially contribute to the new coronavirus's spread, as people who would otherwise shelter in place congregate with others, according to research from Columbia University.

Wildfires, major hurricanes and global pandemics are all becoming more severe threats due to climate change, several studies have shown.

What's more, Laura is a record-setting in its own right; the storm system is the earliest 13th tropical cyclone of any year on the books, as meteorologist Matt Lanza noted.

Eight other storms this year have set similar records, making 2020 already one of the busiest tropical cyclone seasons ever.

Originally published on Live Science.