With only a couple of months to go before the harvest season for winter wheat in Colorado, the crop faced a whiplash: After a warm, dry winter, a cold snap plunged the plants into freezing weather for 12 hours, and temperatures soared to nearly 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32.2 degrees Celsius) two days later. When the final harvest numbers were tallied in July, 73% of the crops were in poor or very poor condition. According to early estimates by Colorado Wheat, 2026's winter wheat crop was the smallest in the state since 1965.

Pick a crop, any crop, and you'll hear a similar story: Extreme weather and climate change are rocking the food supply. The warming climate makes food less nutritious, threatens crop survival, and triggers tipping points that would upend farming as we know it.

The impacts will be felt most intensely in less-developed regions of the world, where many people can't afford imported food and climate-related famines and nutritional scarcity are already happening.

But the U.S. is facing big changes to its food systems too, and no one is immune. Humans have overcome looming agricultural disasters before, but experts say the challenge should not be underestimated.

"There are real food security and nutrition concerns," said Andrew Hultgren, an environmental economist at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, "especially under these high-warming futures."

Food is becoming less nutritious

As the planet warms, food crops are expected to become less nutritious. That's because, due to plant biology that's not yet fully understood, crops grown under higher levels of carbon dioxide are deficient in zinc, protein, magnesium, iron and other micronutrients. Crops are already less nutritious than they were in the 1950s, but this is partly due to breeding decisions that prioritize yield over nutrition. The carbon dioxide deficiencies will exacerbate this nutrition decline.

The global monthly average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is now over 420 parts per million (ppm), well over the preindustrial average of 280 ppm. By the end of the century, those levels will increase to at least 550 ppm in all but the most optimistic scenarios.

That will mean an additional 175 million people will be zinc deficient and an additional 122 million people will be protein deficient by 2050, a 2018 study found. Zinc deficiency has consequences for immune and skin health and may lead to poor growth in childhood; protein deficiency can also cause stunted growth as well as fatigue, muscle weakness and stress fractures. Those figures account only for the effects of carbon dioxide. A cascade of climate shifts and extreme weather may also affect the number of nutrients (and calories) available to the world.

The threats are myriad: Rising sea levels may inundate farmland and lead to saltier soil in coastal regions where, for example, rice farming is common. Soil salinity can make it impossible to grow crops in some regions. Droughts, heat waves, storms or temperature swings like those seen in Colorado this year might take out certain crops in particular places, leading to year-by-year price spikes or shortages. In the U.S., the results might look a lot like the recent egg shortages triggered by bird flu; temporarily empty shelves, price spikes, or even restrictions on the amount a customer can purchase in a visit for an affected food.

Climate shifts that harm pollinators and fuel the spread and introduction of plant pathogens such as harmful fungi will also likely reduce crop yields.

Areas that depend on the ocean for food are also facing steep challenges, due to both ocean acidification and the degradation of coral reef ecosystems, which are sources of food for many coastal communities and form much of the base of food chains for the larger fish people eat.

Hotter weather also affects food safety, said Christopher Golden, a professor of nutrition and public health at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

"Increasing sea temperature and increasing sedimentation within seas could lead to harmful algal blooms or increasing food poisoning events from temperature-related food spoilage," Golden said. Algal blooms can contaminate shellfish like oysters or scallops with neurotoxins that can sicken and kill people who eat them. Food spoilage is a concern in regions such as Madagascar, where catches are brought ashore and readied for consumption in the open air.

Meanwhile, fish may move poleward to avoid the hottest sea temperatures, leaving the most vulnerable regions ‪—‬ such as Southeast Asia, the Caribbean, Africa, Central America and the Pacific ‪—‬ with fewer fish in their waters. How bad this looks depends on the extent of the climate swings, with research suggesting that without any mitigation, fishers could see their catches decline by 58% to 92% off small islands in the Pacific and by 70% to 86% in Southeast Asia. This would drive food insecurity and malnutrition in those regions. The U.S. will likely face impacts too, as most of its seafood is imported from subtropical or tropical waters elsewhere.

There may be shifts in trade networks that lessen the blow for U.S. consumers, Golden said, but it's hard to predict. Some possibilities include "price shifts or trade shifts that lead to changing dietary patterns or more shelf-stable and heavily processed items that we know aren't good for your health," he said. In other words, less fresh-caught snapper and more potted meats.

Changing foods on the table

Individual producers are adapting, sometimes in ways that may not be immediately obvious to consumers. "Climate change is bad in that it's a slow-moving wave," said Elizabeth Wolkovich, a professor of forestry at the University of British Columbia. "You don't really notice that it's shifting underneath you and that the apple you eat isn't the apple your granddaughter will eat."

On that note, growers in the Pacific Northwest and U.S. Northeast will face challenges getting apples to lunch boxes around the world. Fewer cold days and more extreme-heat days will likely reduce apple yields by affecting how and when trees go dormant and bloom. Because it takes five or more years to establish fruiting trees in new regions, this could mean a reduced apple supply and higher prices.

Today's smooth arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) varieties may get harder to find and more expensive as climate change forces coffee growers out of many of the places they used to farm and droughts reduce supply. Earthier, more bitter robusta coffee beans (Coffea canephora) do better in warming temperatures, but even those beans could struggle with increasing seasonal variability caused by climate change.

Climate has already shifted wines in favor of less-acidic and higher-alcohol varieties, Wolkovich said, but it's happened slowly enough that, unless you're a connoisseur, you may not have noticed. Wine lovers can expect more changes: Wolkovich has found that the varieties of wine grapes that growers can produce will shift with climate change. Wildfires in grape-growing regions like California can also produce an unpleasant acrid and smoky flavor in wine.

And it's not just flavors that will be affected. U.S. dairy cattle breeds originated in cool and cloudy Northern Europe, and their milk output goes down as temperatures climb. Such heat stress reduced annual milk yield by an average of 1% a year between 2012 and 2016 alone, and heat-related losses are expected to balloon by 30% by 2050.

Americans have long been drinking less milk from the glass, but their demand for yogurt and cheese is rising, said Jared Hutchins, an assistant professor of agricultural and consumer economics at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and first author of the study on milk yield. Those products depend heavily on the fat and protein content in milk, which is the first thing to drop when cattle are hot. "Fat and protein are what deliver the cultured dairy products that are in high demand," Hutchins told Live Science.

The story repeats itself across agricultural products, Hultgren said. "For each degree of that global temperature rise, caloric output [from crops] drops by 120 kilocalories or U.S. calories per person per day," he said, "which is about 4.5% of a person's daily recommended caloric intake."

That calculation, published by Hultgren and his colleagues in the journal Nature in 2025, already accounted for adaptations that farmers can make to reduce crop losses. Without those adaptations, the number would be over 30% higher, he said.

Reductions in available calories will translate to food shortages in vulnerable places, such as the Horn of Africa or India, said Marina Romanello, executive director of a multinational research project that tracks the impacts of climate on health at University College London. In North America, "it would feel like inflation," Hultgren said ‪—‬ yet another factor driving up grocery prices.

Worst-case scenarios

For farmers, the year-by-year uncertainty of climate change is a problem. Will this year bring drought? Will there be a sudden storm or flood that will wash away the spring crop? Should they take a risk on a new heat-resistant plant or agricultural technique?

Similar uncertainty haunts the long-term forecast. Climate tipping points can lead to sudden, irreversible changes in the system. For agriculture, one of the scariest tipping points is the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This pattern of ocean currents brings warm surface water north from the equator and circulates cold water south, warming Northern Europe and the northern parts of North America and cooling the Southern Hemisphere.

If this current were to collapse, northwestern Europe would cool dramatically, with studies suggesting that London could see temperature lows of minus 4 F (minus 20 C) ‪— ‬colder than the city's lowest temperatures on record. Precipitation would decline across Europe, leading to drought. Meanwhile, in the Amazon, the wet season could become the dry season and vice versa, said René van Westen, a climate researcher at Utrecht University in the Netherlands who has studied the impacts of an AMOC collapse.

On the other hand, if the AMOC doesn't collapse, London is expected to warm by 4.9 F (2.7 C) and see 15% to 18% more precipitation, depending on the season. The uncertainty in these predictions makes preparations difficult. There is still a lot of controversy over whether the AMOC will collapse and, if so, when. Should farmers plan for England to become increasingly toasty, or should they expect it to be plunged into a little ice age?

AMOC-related changes will take decades to centuries to unfold, even with a total collapse, van Westen told Live Science. But even so, they would require a total rewriting of agriculture in Europe and the northeastern U.S. "It will be very challenging to adapt to such a scenario," he said.

That doesn't mean a collapse of the world food system is inevitable. Farmers are already adapting to the early impacts of climate change by scaling back water-hungry crops in drought years and, in some places, testing new, heat-resistant varieties of crops in an attempt to stem the losses.

And humans have overcome looming disaster in agriculture before: In the 1950s and 1960s, new varieties of rice and wheat, along with the availability of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, spurred the "Green Revolution," tripling the world's yield of cereal crops while expanding farmland by only 30%. Similar innovations could limit hunger even as the world warms.

But the biggest way to mitigate these impacts is the most obvious one. While Hultgren and his colleagues found that adaptation could cut caloric losses under climate change by 30%, mitigating warming by reducing emissions today could slash them by half. Similarly, the AMOC is on a path toward weakening, van Westen said, but as long as humans slow the pace of climate change, the current can recover.

"If you are cutting your emissions," van Westen said, "you can lower your risk."

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As wildfires raged through Ontario, Canada in mid-July, millions of people in the Midwest and on the East Coast found themselves under a shroud of yellow skies, darkened by smoke from the infernos. The air quality index in Grand Rapids, Michigan hit 616 on July 16, breaking the previous record for the city of 350; any number over 301 indicates hazardous, emergency conditions.

Smoke events like this are only likely to worsen in the coming decades: Wildfires are one of the most imminent impacts of climate change.

Not only do the flames themselves directly threaten lives, but the smoke can trigger heart attacks, asthma attacks and premature births, as well as worsen heart disease or lung ailments such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). And those effects can spread as insidiously as smoke travels.

A 2025 study found that the record-breaking 2023 Canadian wildfire season may have shortened the lives of 87,000 people exposed to the smoke plumes worldwide. Another 2025 study found that wildfire smoke contributed to 41,380 excess deaths per year in the U.S. between 2011 and 2020 and that the number will rise to 71,420 excess deaths by 2050 if global temperatures rise 5 to 8.3 degrees Fahrenheit (2.8 to 4.6 degrees Celsius) by the end of the century.

In North America, the health impacts of this extra fire are likely to be significant. Wildfire season is getting longer and more intense in the West and Southwest, while regions not historically prone to wildfires will need to deal with the impacts of smoke plumes that can travel thousands of miles.

"Wildfire smoke is the fastest-growing environmental threat [to health] in the U.S.," said Marshall Burke, a professor of global environmental policy at Stanford University who was the senior author of the study predicting the grim rise in excess deaths. "It's just changing so rapidly."

Longer fire season, bigger blazes

Even a rapid drop in greenhouse gas emissions wouldn't fully mitigate the growing risk of wildfires. Because these gases persist in the atmosphere for decades, a more fire-friendly future is already locked in.

"No one foresees changes in the near future, at least, that are going to result in decreases in wildfire," said Mary M. Johnson, a principal research scientist in environmental health at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. Wildfires are "predicted to increase in size, intensity and frequency."

Global data suggests that without climate change mitigation, fires will increase in all vegetation types by the end of the 21st century. Even if warming is held to 2.2 F (1.5 C) over pre-industrial temperatures ‪—‬ an increasingly challenging goal to meet ‪—‬ fires outside of tropical latitudes will become more frequent.

In the U.S., the picture is bleak. Between 1984 and 2015, the number of large wildfires in the U.S. West doubled, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The seasonality of fire is also shifting. A February 2026 study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters found that climate change is nudging fire season in the boreal forests of Alaska and Canada forward as winter snow vanishes earlier, leaving spring vegetation dry and ripe to burn. In the U.S. West, on the other hand, fire season is stretching later because of summer drought.

"It's about dryness," GRL study senior author Hongliang Zhang, an air quality researcher at China's Fudan University, told Live Science.

Climate change warms the atmosphere, and a warmer atmosphere can hold more water. But changes in precipitation patterns can still lead to increased dryness and drought, Zhang said. With climate change weighing the scales toward more intense bouts of rainfall, a particular location could see more precipitation but still experience a simultaneous increase in dry or drought periods, he added.

Zhang and his colleagues found that under a scenario in which temperatures rise by about 7.9 F (4.4 C) by 2100 — a high-emission scenario in which we do little to curb carbon output — fire season would move forward by about a week in Canadian and Alaskan forests, with some of the northernmost regions of Canada and Alaska seeing shifts of up to 23 days. California, with its Mediterranean-like climate, would experience a peak burning shift later in the season. In the Southwest, fire season under this scenario would start a week later but end more than a month later than it does now.

How wildfire smoke is poisoning the air

All of this spells bad news for human health in the U.S. More frequent and intense fires will fuel dramatic increases in air pollution. For instance, a 2020 study suggests that particulate smoke pollution levels will double or triple in the Pacific Northwest and Northern California under unmitigated warming by the end of the century. And even though the West is the U.S. region most prone to fire, wildfire smoke pollution won't stay there. Instead, it will travel across the country, worsening air quality on the East Coast and in the Midwest, Burke and his colleagues found. Depending on the level of warming, smoke emissions will increase 262% to 482% between 2046 and 2055 compared to 2011 to 2020, the researchers found.

Climate change also brings an uptick in severe weather, including winds, Johnson told Live Science. More wind means smoke can travel many thousands of miles. For example, the smoke from the 2023 Canadian wildfires reached Europe and Asia, and that trend is likely to worsen.

"There really isn't any place in the world now where you can say, 'I'm not going to be exposed to smoke,'" she said.

When wildlands burn, they produce PM2.5, a fine particulate matter that is small enough to slip into the bloodstream. Epidemiological studies have linked exposure to PM2.5 to a range of health issues, including dementia, kidney disease and lung cancer. The particles increase oxidative stress on cells in lab dishes, induce cell death, and cause DNA damage that can lead to cancerous mutations, among other impacts.

The damage is evident during big fires. For instance, exposure to wildfire smoke raises the risk of heart attack, stroke and other cardiovascular emergencies, according to a study of California emergency department visits during the 2015 wildfire season. Cumulative exposure over time, however, is how wildfire smoke causes the most deaths. Between 2006 and 2020, PM2.5 from wildfire smoke exposure was responsible for an average of 24,100 deaths per year in the United States, a study published in the journal Science Advances in February found. Smoke exposure worsened the death rate for every health condition studied, with neurological disease deaths rising most significantly.

Wildfire smoke may also fuel premature births. Just a week of wildfire smoke exposure raised the risk of preterm birth by 3.4%, a 2022 study found — and in a world where smoke exposure could span weeks, that could translate to a significant uptick in the rate of premature birth. Other studies tell a similar story: a 2024 study found risk of premature birth rises with every incremental increase in exposure to PM2.5 from wildfires during pregnancy. And a 2025 study found that preterm birth risk increased in the U.S. West with smoke exposure, regardless of whether that exposure was measured by high-smoke days, exposure to 4-day waves of smoke, or by the concentration of particulate matter in the air.

Wildfire smoke may also affect cognition: A 2022 study found that cumulative exposure to wildfire smoke over the school year was linked to slightly lower test scores for elementary and middle schoolers. And research using data from cognitive brain-training apps has also shown that performance on a cognitive task declines on high smoke days in adults. Over the long term, PM2.5 exposure from wildfires is linked to dementia risk.

Toxic cocktail

Researchers are still working to understand why wildfire smoke is so dangerous to the body. Smoke can contain a toxic stew of ingredients, especially when homes and buildings burn. Air testing after the 2025 Palisades fire in Los Angeles found high levels of silver and chromium-6 nanoparticles, the latter of which are carcinogenic.

Johnson and her team have found that smoke exposure leads to epigenetic changes associated with the immune system.‪‬ In other words, the person's DNA doesn't change, but the way it's translated into building proteins and cells in the immune system shifts. And epigenetic shifts can be passed along to the next generation. One shift is a decline in regulatory T cells, immune cells that help the body tolerate itself and harmless allergens. The immune changes probably play a role in why wildfire smoke exacerbates chronic diseases, Johnson said.

More smoke days can also affect health indirectly, by keeping people from going outdoors. In California, the heaviest smoke days actually have fewer emergency department visits overall, Burke said. On the smokiest days, when the air is noticeably hazy and may even smell like a campfire, emergency department visits for asthma-related reasons rise, but visits related to injuries or car accidents decline even more, probably because everyone is staying home. That may sound like a net benefit, but if forced quarantines happen repeatedly, they can worsen physical and mental health over time, making people more sedentary or less able to socialize.

"It's keeping people from doing things they would otherwise love to do," Burke said.

On the flip side, emergency department visits rise on days when the Air Quality Index indicates a moderate risk or a risk to sensitive groups.On these days, the air may not seem noticeably bad, and people may go out without realizing the amount of pollution they are inhaling until they start to feel ill.

"That's really consistent with this broader air pollution literature that, especially recently, has shown there is no safe exposure level to air pollution," Burke said.

With an increasingly wildfire-friendly climate in its future, Americans will be less healthy. There are ways to reduce the impact, however. Burke and his team have found that controlled burns put off less pollution than wildfires, while reducing the fuel load that turns wildland fires into smoke-churning infernos. An investment in managing fuels could ultimately be an investment in improving the country's health.

"It is within our power to correct that problem," Burke said.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not meant to offer medical advice.

In 2010, researchers at Purdue University and the University of New South Wales began an investigation into a macabre question: What's the upper temperature limit at which humans can survive? The answer, according to their calculations, was 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) at 100% humidity — a "wet bulb" temperature that sets an absolute "unsurvivable" threshold for the human body.

Beyond this temperature, a cascade of irreversible physiological processes begins, sending organs into shock, causing blood to clot and ending in inevitable death.

As the climate warms and heat waves multiply, more places across the globe are creeping towards this threshold, with climate models projecting the first 35 C wet bulb temperatures by the middle of the century.

But conditions don't have to be this hot or humid to be unlivable in a practical sense for wide swaths of the population. The threshold is lower for those who are older, for women, and those with certain medical conditions. Any kind of physical activity also raises the risk of heat stress.

In some parts of Asia, South America and Australia, the hottest days are already "unlivable," meaning a healthy adult sitting in the shade in a slight breeze could be at risk from heat illness, a recent study found.

In North America, the hottest days in parts of the Southwest and Southeast pose that same risk, the study found. And more heat is coming: Under projected warming, the country will see tens of thousands more heat-related deaths by 2100.

Nearly 20,000 people could die from extreme heat each year by the middle of the century in the United States. The U.S. and Mexico could see an additional 9,000 suicides each year.

Heat can kill directly, via heat stroke, but it can also worsen underlying cardiovascular health, turning chronic, manageable heart conditions deadly. Heat waves often occur hand in hand with droughts or other extreme weather and may lead to food and water price hikes or shortages, said Marina Romanello, a senior research fellow at the University College London Institute for Global Health who tracks how the climate affects health. In that sense, climate change acts as a stress multiplier.

And heat could erode health in other, subtler ways, making nights more sleepless and our cognition a bit cloudier.

"No individual metric really does justice to the overall risk to health and well-being of these multiple stressors being exacerbated all at once and compounding each other," she told Live Science.

Heat wave deaths

Heat kills most immediately through heat stroke, which occurs when the core body temperature soars over 104 F (40 C) and doesn't cool down. Dangerous heat waves — and resulting deaths — have already increased over the past several decades. In 2023, heat was described as the main cause or a major underlying cause of death on 2,325 U.S. death certificates, an increase from 1,069 in 1999, research shows. When adjusted for age of the population, that represented a 63% rise in heat-related deaths.

But scientists think heat already contributes to many more deaths than that, because heat isn't always listed as a contributor to death on official records, even if it may have played a role in exacerbating an underlying health condition.

Heat is particularly hard on people with cardiovascular issues, with the risk of a heart attack more than doubling on extreme heat days. The risk of stroke, too, nearly doubles on the hottest days. Some early evidence hints that heat's impact on the immune system may play a role in these cardiac cases. Deaths related to extreme heat days for all reasons are projected to more than double by the mid-century in the U.S., leading to up to nearly 20,000 deaths if temperatures warm 8.1 degrees F (4.5 degrees C).

And rates of hyponatremia, or low sodium levels — which can cause seizures and coma — are also projected to increase as climate change worsens.

Most at risk are older adults, kids and teens, and people who work outside. The heart pumps less efficiently as people age, so older people struggle to pump blood to the skin to cool down. Children produce more heat than adults, given differing fat makeup and a lower skin surface area, and sweat less, making them more prone to developing heat stroke. Outdoor workers often have to exert themselves on hot days and may struggle to hydrate enough to compensate for extreme heat.

People with certain medical conditions are also at high risk. Diabetes can impair sweating and the dilation of the blood vessels that helps cool the body in hot temperatures, making people with diabetes more susceptible to heat stroke. Some medications, including diuretics often taken by people with heart disease, beta blockers for people with heart conditions, and selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors (SSRIs) taken for mood disorders, also increase the risk of heat-related illness because their side effects make it harder for the body to cool itself.

Mental illness itself is also a risk factor. Higher temperatures have been linked to an increase in suicides, with 0.7% more instances of suicides in the U.S. per for every 1.8 F (1 degree C) increase in monthly average temperature. Were temperatures to rise more than 5 degrees C (9 degrees F), that rise could translate to between 9,000 and 40,000 additional suicides in the U.S. and Mexico by 2050, the researchers wrote ‪—‬ similar to the increase in the suicide rate expected in a serious economic recession. (Fortunately, that temperature rise is now considered unlikely due to the world moving away from coal as an energy source.)

It's not clear exactly why hotter days fuel more suicide, but one possibility is that feeling hot and uncomfortable can increase the impulsivity that may underlie the behavior.

And impulsivity rises in people who struggle to stay comfortably cool in their homes, Kim Meidenbauer, a neuroscientist at Washington State University who studies the effect of heat on emotion and behavior, has found.

The effects may be hardest on those who have preexisting mental health conditions, ranging from schizophrenia to anxiety: Mental-health-related emergency department visits have been shown to rise with the temperature.

Perhaps the most universal way heat may compromise health in the U.S. is through sleep. Heat reduces both sleep quality and sleep quantity. For every degree-Celsius increase in nighttime temperature, there is a loss of 3 good nights of sleep per month per 100 people, according to one large-scale sleep-tracking study.

Those sleep disruptions may be the major reason heat has a corrosive effect on mood and mental health, even for those without existing mental health conditions, Meidenbauer noted.

"We see worsened emotional state," she told Live Science. "We see increases in impulsivity." And underslept people struggle to stay on an even keel, perhaps explaining both E.R. visits and a heightened risk of suicide.

"Emotion regulation is a lot harder if you've had poor sleep quality," Meidenbauer told Live Science.

Daily health in a hotter world

Heat affects the mind in other ways, too. People have trouble thinking clearly once temperatures reach 89.6 F (32 C), a study that administered math and verbal reasoning tests to 50,000 people in China found.

The number of days in the U.S. with heat indices over 100 F (37.8 C) is expected to double as soon as a decade from now, while the number of days with heat indices over 105 F (40 C) is expected to triple. The heat index is a measure of what the temperature feels when taking into account air temperature and relative humidity. The more humid the air, the harder it is for the body to cool off by sweating.

Nearly nine in 10 U.S. households have air conditioning, but that doesn't mean Americans are immune to heat waves. The 2024 study in China found that even short-term exposure to extreme heat — on the order of an hour in a couple of days — can cause small declines in math and verbal test scores, indicating some degree of mental sluggishness in hot weather.

Hotter days may drive people indoors, potentially worsening physical and mental health. Exercising outdoors may provide a mental health boost above and beyond exercising indoors. The data is limited by research designs that don't always follow rigorous methods, but losing outdoor exercise opportunities could mean a slide in physical fitness even if people switch to indoor workouts. For example, cancer survivors randomly assigned to indoor and outdoor exercise worked harder when exercising outside, according to one 2020 study. Likewise, teen boys with obesity prescribed playful exercise outside lost more weight and saw greater increases in a molecule that regulates appetite and wakefulness than those who were assigned to use a treadmill indoors, a 2019 study found. People also reported more satisfaction with outdoor exercise versus indoor exercise, which might influence their willingness to keep working out.

Hot days could also curtail kids' sports, which are often played outdoors. In Japan, summer outdoor youth sports in much of the country might need to be restricted for one to four months a year, even under lower-warming scenarios; similar issues could crop up in much of the U.S., which sits at approximately the same latitude as Japan.

Overall, studies find a U-shaped relationship between obesity and temperature, with higher body mass index (BMI) in the coldest and hottest places. One study in Australia found that regular exposure to temperatures above 86 degrees F (30 degrees C) was associated with increases in BMI and obesity.

Adapting to extreme heat

People do adapt to warmer temperatures over weeks or months through physiological changes, as their sweat glands become more efficient and their water retention increases. The cognition study conducted in China found that people who lived in climates that were warmer on average were more resistant to declining test scores in the face of warmer temperatures, perhaps indicating that these physiological changes have practical impacts.

However, extreme heat — and short-term spikes — outpace the human body's ability to adjust, as the increases in heat-related deaths already measured between 1999 and 2023 attest. Likewise, kids are already suffering, especially those in the South where temperatures are highest. A study of two major hospitals in Texas found a 170% increase in pediatric emergency department visits for heat-releated illness between 2012 and 2023.

What works to reduce the impacts of extreme heat is an open question, said Marshall Burke, a professor of global environmental policy at Stanford University. Cities often open cooling centers during heat waves, which may save lives, but whether they do enough hasn't been well studied, he told Live Science.

To try to answer that question, Burke and his colleagues have put together a website, the Environmental Hazard Adaptation Atlas, to pull together data on temperature, heat-related illness and death, and what adaptations might help.

"We need good case studies of what things have worked," he said. "We need good systematic evidence."