Unexpected Twist In Hurricane Study

Echoing results from recent global climate models, new results indicate that there could be less but stronger hurricanes as global temperatures increase. But researchers may have touched on the unexpected role that wind shear could play in hurricane formation.

"We designed the computer simulations to show that as the ocean temperature increased, hurricanes would form more rapidly and easily, even in the presence of wind shear," says Nolan, an associate professor of Meteorology. "Instead, we got exactly the opposite result. As the water temperature increased, the effectiveness of the wind shear in suppressing hurricane formation actually became greater."

These results were published in the July 2008 issue of Geophysical Research Letters by David Nolan and Eric Rappin from the University of Miami.

These two variables – ocean temperature and wind shear -- are considered to be the two most important factors in predicting hurricane activity, both in operational forecasting and in consideration of climate change.

The computer models used for these studies only represent the coarsest features of hurricanes, thus casting doubt in their predictions of hurricane activity.

-- LiveScience Staff

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