Three-Month Winter Forecast

A new map forecasting winter temperatures for the next three months has good news and bad news, depending on which side of the Mississippi River you live on.

In the map above, based on a weather-predicting model developed by Judah Cohen of Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., normal temperatures for the three month period from December to February are indicated in white. Temperatures warmer than normal and colder than normal are in red and blue, respectively.

The model shows a clear trend of overall colder than normal temperatures east of the Mississippi and warmer than normal to the west. The largest departures from normal are found in the eastern Great Lakes and in the Southwest.

The model uses El Nino, recent temperature trends and Siberian snow cover in Oct, as well as sea-level pressure anomalies, in its winter forecast, because, Cohen says, regions impacted by snow variability differ from those influenced by El Nino, which is often used in forecast models.

"The influence of snow cover extent has the potential to complement El Nino-derived forecasts, and to advance our understanding of climate variability and its application in prediction models," he said.

Extended forecasts for January, February, and March show cold temperatures in the Northeast, the Great Lakes, and the Northern Plains and warm in the Rockies and along the West Coast.

--Bjorn Carey

Amazing Images: Science & Nature Photos from Our Readers

Credit: Judah Cohen, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.