The Future of Hurricane Forecasting

Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) are using an advanced research weather (ARW) model to follow Hurricane Rita and get an early look at how well forecasts of the future may predict hurricane track, intensity, and important rain and wind features.

The high-resolution model projects the location of rain bands and eye-wall structures 48 hours into the future. These two features play a big role in determining where the greatest wind and rain damage may occur, says NCAR weather expert Chris Davis.

Currently, operational forecast models have much lower resolution and must approximate the cloud processes affecting intensity and precipitation.

Eye-walls tend to weaken once the storm reaches land. Earlier this season, the ARW captured the collapse of Hurricane Katrina's eye-wall as the storm hit land, causing a shift in rainfall to the north side of the storm. If the eye-wall had held together, the winds would have been far more destructive.

The model is a collaboration between university and government scientists.

--Bjorn Carey

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Credit: National Center for Atmospheric Research, ARW