Feds Lower Hurricane Forecast

MIAMI (AP)—The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season should be slightly less active than originally predicted, but still above long-term averages, federal forecasters said Tuesday as they warned coastal residents not to let their guard down.

Forecasters now expect there to be 12-15 named storms and seven to nine hurricanes, three to four of which could be major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph), the National Hurricane Center and other National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration agencies said.

Government scientists made their first prediction in May, saying the season could produce 13-16 named storms, and eight to 10 hurricanes, four to six of which could become major.

[A similarly revised forecast was issued by a separate research team out of the University of Colorado last week.]

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There have been only three tropical storms and no hurricanes so far, but August through October are typically the most active months of the season.

Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center, and other officials said residents should not become complacent because of the slightly lower prediction and relatively calm season so far. Mayfield said he was deeply concerned about public preparedness, and urged people to develop a family hurricane plan, secure their homes and heed warnings if told to evacuate.

"Remember, one hurricane hitting your neighborhood is enough to make it a bad season,'' he said.

"Many active years have little to no activity prior to mid-August,'' NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell added.

Federal Emergency Management Agency director R. David Paulison, who joined NOAA officials speaking from Washington, D.C., said his agency is working closely with state governments and would not wait for a state's relief efforts to fail before stepping in with federal support after a hurricane.

Officials revised their forecast downward because of wetter than predicted conditions over the Pacific Ocean, which forced slightly higher upper-level winds over the Caribbean, hurricane center meteorologist Christopher Landsea said. Those winds can rip apart storms and stop them from becoming hurricanes.

Water temperatures in the Atlantic are also not as high as first expected, forecasters said.

The revision follows that of forecasters at Colorado State University, who updated their forecast Thursday. They reduced their storm estimate from nine hurricanes to seven, and said that three instead of five of the storms could be major. The forecasters had initially called for 17 named storms, but now predict 15.

The two forecasts still would make this season busier than long-term averages, but in line with an increase in the Atlantic that started in 1995. Federal forecasters say warmer waters, more moisture and other conditions have been responsible for that increase, which they say could last for another decade or more.

Between 1995 and 2005, the Atlantic has averaged 15 named storms, just over eight named hurricanes and four major hurricanes, according to the hurricane center. Long-term averages are 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major ones.

In 2005, National Hurricane Center forecasters initially predicted 12 to 15 tropical storms, with seven to nine of them becoming hurricanes, and three to five of those hurricanes being major.

The season turned out to be much worse, breaking records with 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes and seven major ones. Hurricane Katrina was the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history, killing more than 1,500 and wiping out parts of the Gulf Coast.

Hurricane season began June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

2006 Hurricane Guide