Really Cold War Looms Over Arctic Oil

Here's the chilly fictional scenario envisioned by the Daily Mail:

"The year is 2020, and, from the Middle East to Nigeria, the world is convulsed by a series of conflicts over dwindling energy supplies. The last untapped reserves of oil and gas lie in the most extreme environment on the planet — the North Pole — where an estimated bonanza of 100 billion barrels are buried deep beneath the Arctic seabed. The ownership of this hostile no-man's-land is contested by Russia, Denmark, Norway, the U.S and Canada. And, in an increasingly desperate battle for resources, each begins to back up its claim with force."

It's not so farfetched. Estimates may differ on how much oil is available, but everyone agrees the quantity is fixed, and many scientists say we've reached or soon will reach peak oil production levels. It's all downhill from there, the thinking goes, and more than one futurist has suggested global war could ensue if the situation isn't dealt with. Meanwhile, as the Arctic melts, open seas offer access to oil that's never been available.

The North Pole's geography is politically contested. Russia has since 2007 been flexing its northern muscles, planting a flag on the seafloor at the North Pole and conducting more Arctic military exercises than in the past.

There's no land around the North Pole — just ice. And that ice has been getting thinner and less extensive. Scientists say in a few decades, it could be ice-free during summer at the top of the world.

Any war fought there would therefore be the realm of air forces and navies. There will likely still be winter ice at the pole for decades to come, so a good submarine fleet is a must.