One of the ironies of science is that the more you learn, the more you realize you don’t know. Nowhere is that truer than with hurricanes.

A few decades ago scientists had only a crude ability to guess what state a hurricane might hit, if they even knew one was out there (just ask the folks on Long Island who got smacked by one in 1938 that was last seen heading out to sea off Cape Hatteras). For decades thereafter, little changed until the launch of the first weather satellite in 1960. The understanding of storms grew rapidly, to the point that now forecasters can often predict landfall within a hundred miles and a few hours.

But as the new Atlantic hurricane season opens today, a ton of data run through ever-more-sophisticated computer models has scientists arguing over a fundamental and ominous question: Are human greenhouse emissions making hurricanes stronger? The debate is feisty, with several studies supporting a “yes” answer (and new evidence suggesting that pollution muted hurricanes prior to the current spate) and several long-time hurricane gurus on the “no” side. Florida Governor Jeb Bush has come down firmly on the “let’s wait and see” side.

Nature will surely let us know. Don’t expect consensus this year, regardless of how active the season is. But in a few years, this stormy debate will be resolved. Meantime, don’t be surprised to see some more whoppers that push the limits of the Saffir-Simpson scale.

If you happen to be at Walt Disney World in Florida this year while a hurricane approaches, you might find Mickey more prepared than New Orleans.

NOAA’s National Weather Service today declared the facility StormReady. That means there’s an onsite, 24-hour emergency center, multiple ways to receive storm information and issue warnings, and a formal hazardous weather plan. What’s expected to be a busy season starts June 1.

The theme park joins a list of 1,056 other StormReady sites, including 557 counties, 476 communities and a handful of military sites, universities and others.

Only 4 parishes in Louisiana are on the list.

Sunday’s Indy 500 was one of the most exciting ever, with Marco Andretti taking the lead near the finish from his Dad, Michael, while grandfather Mario looked on. I don’t usually stand and cheer in my living room, but for a moment there it couldn’t have been better unless Mario had been in the No. 3 slot. It got even more exciting (if a little disappointing for some fans) when Sam Hornish Jr. passed Marco with only about two football fields worth of racing to go. [Race Recap]

It was also exciting for fans of alternative energy. The cars ran on a mix of methanol and 10 percent ethanol, the latter of which can be made from corn and other crops. Next year, the whole Indy Car series will run on 100 percent ethanol [more on this]. That won’t solve America’s oil addiction, and it won’t by itself bring the cost of ethanol down to that of gas, but it puts an alternative fuel source in the public eye. Especially with the Andrettis around.

I can imagine corn growers suddenly become huge fans of the Indy 500. After all, yesterday I bought 5 ears at Safeway for *less than a dollar*. The ethanol industry ought to lobby to get Mario to come out of retirement…

There appears to be a disturbance in the contractor force engaged in trying to win the big bucks of a Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) contract. It’s a tight race between the Northrop Grumman/Boeing and Lockheed Martin teams and the lineup of subcontractors.

Sources say that there was a slipup on a NASA web site visited by contractors. According to those sources, competition sensitive CEV data from Lockheed Martin was posted.

Given that the site is visited by contractors — friends and foe alike — letting such data float freeform for all eyes to see has a high “yikes” factor. Also, CEV industry teams are still in the mode of responding to NASA inputs and outputs. So keeping a level playing field is always advisable.

For all you CEV watchers, better keep an ear and eye out on this. 

Last word from NASA is that they are on track to pick a CEV industrial team by August/September time frame.

Speaking at the National Space Society’s International Space Development Conference about two weeks ago, noted astronomer Neil deGrasse Tyson, summed up the current state of rational thought at the beginning of the 21st century by pointing out that almost 70 percent of the buildings in Manhattan are bereft of a 13th floor. Granted, a majority of these were built in the 20th century, but it does point to an unfortunate truth: superstition can and does outweigh logic and reason in every day life.

As we move closer to June 6, 2006, we see once again a kind of irrational fear of benign numbers manifesting itself (and no, I don’t mean the release of the remake of the 1970s son -of-Satan lovefest, “The Omen”, though that’s not helping matters).

Still it’s nice to see that Tyson isn’t alone in the public sphere in calling this kind of kookiness into question.

Taking a broader look at how pandering to this kind of stunted thought creates bad policy, New York mayor Michael Bloomberg parted ways with his political party, the GOP, in his speech at Johns Hopkins University yesterday by railing “against what he sees as ideologically motivated arguments that have fueled debate over hot-button issues like teaching evolution in public schools and the Terri Schiavo case.”

According to the New York Times coverage of the speech, Bloomberg called for an end to the political manipulation of science: “Today, we are seeing hundreds of years of scientific discovery being challenged by people who simply disregard facts that don’t happen to agree with their agenda,” Mr. Bloomberg said. “Some call it pseudoscience, others call it faith-based science, but when you notice where this negligence tends to take place, you might as well call it ‘political science.’ ”

Amen, brother. If only more people were listening to Bloomberg and Tyson, there might be more solutions than problems.

The Internet rumor mill today provided a good warmup for 6/6/06. A guy with a web site claimed that a comet would strike the ocean today and create a huge tsunami. How he knew this and NASA didn’t isn’t clear. NASA should pay closer attention to huge nearby things in the sky. Anyway, if you are reading this, so far all is well. But apparently some folks in Morocco got a little worried.

Just to be safe, I asked my colleagues in our New York headquarters to move the servers several miles inland, so when the entire East Coast is destroyed, I can post a story about it from here in Phoenix. I haven’t heard back from them on my request, but I imagine it’s a pretty big task. Or maybe they’ve already been obliterated.
Whatever, you can bet your wireless connection that there will be more claims like this that will surface between now and June 6, when the calendar could be read as 666. As I tell readers who email me now and then wondering if this asteroid or that planet alignment is really going to destroy Earth: If such a thing is on the horizon, it’ll be the biggest story in a long time and no scientist or journalist who is in on any supposed secrets will be able to keep quiet.

When you plan a special report, you never know what news might crop up on the days the report runs. Ker Than’s 3-day “Toward Immortality” series this week has been planned for months. Rather than looking just at the science and technology of living longer, his central question is whether virtual immortality would be a good or bad thing, in terms of the social, moral and psychological implications.

I think society will adapt, as will our minds, because the changes will likely occur slowly. But I wonder a lot about this one: If science removes cancer and heart disease from our worry lists, what about the frustrating and debilitating ills that could still strike us in those post-century years. If I make it past 80, the current and declining state of my various parts suggests I’ll be blind, deaf, hunched with severe low-back pain, and my right knee will refuse to support me. The hope, of course, is that science will solve these other issues too, so that we all live long *and* happy.

A nifty breakthrough announced today—a desktop-sized seeing machine for the blind (and you know they’ll now make it smaller and smaller, until it’s a wireless pair of glasses or an implant)—points to just the sort of future human we can expect. Whether life expectancies stay around 80 or climb to 200, we’re all bound to become more and more bionic. Check out also robotic arms, printable skin, and the surgical abilities hinted at in last year’s face transplant. The future of Steve Austin’s 1970s is finally, almost, here.

A just-issued House Appropriations Committee Report takes NASA to task for not living up to its part of a Department of Energy (DOE) - NASA Joint Dark Energy Mission, or JDEM for short.

This space probe would help answer the fundamental physics question of our time: What is the ”dark energy” that constitutes the majority of the universe. Answering this question is among the top priorities of the physics community. House Appropriations Committee lawmakers argue that the initiative should move forward.

“DOE has done its part, developing the SuperNova Acceleration Probe (SNAP) as the DOE mission concept for JDEM. Unfortunately, NASA has failed to budget and program for launch services for JDEM. Unfortunately, in spite of best intentions, the multi-agency aspect of this initiative poses insurmountable problems that imperil its future,” Committee report language states.

The Committee has directed the DOE to begin planning for a single-agency dark energy mission with a launch in fiscal year 2013.

“The Committee directs DOE to explore other launch options, including cooperative international approaches and the procurement of private launch services, to get the SNAP platform into space,” explains the report.

The latest TV spots for the upcoming film Superman Returns offer some morsels for those following the exploits of British billionaire Sir Richard Branson and his Virgin Galactic space tourism efforts. Or do they?

Earlier this month, when Branson confirmed his cameo appearance alongside a spaceliner in Superman Returns in a Guardian interview, I got all jazzed up about the possibility of seeing SpaceShipTwo, Virgin Galactic’s passenger craft for suborbital flights, this summer.

And lo, the new TV trailer spots that popped up do indeed hint at a suborbital spacecraft, but one that bears more in common with the space tourism firm Space Adventures’ Cosmopolis XXI vehicle than an evolution of SpaceShipOne – the Ansari X Prize-winning vehicle built by Burt Rutan - which led to SpaceShipTwo’s conception.  

Rocketship flies in Superman Returns TV spot. Credit: Warner Bros.

Instead of being dropped from a parent craft like SpaceShipOne, the rocketship in Superman Returns launches from its carrier’s roof. But is it SpaceShipTwo or just another Hollywood spaceship with Branson at the wheel (remember that Volvo ad where he rode a Saturn 5 rocket in a spacesuit to sell SUVs)?  

A look at the rocket’s business end in Superman Returns TV spot. Credit: Warner Bros.

Even if it’s not SpaceShipTwo, a stint in is a good piece of marketing for Virgin Galactic and its suborbital spaceflight competitors. 

Now if only they could get a piece of hardware into space soon here in the real world.

Recognizing what our readers find among the most interesting and important topics on LiveScience, we have redesigned two sections to better organize the growing number of in-depth features, photographs and special reports and manage the daily flow of news.

What was our Human Biology section has become Health SciTech, a name that reflects your interest (and our focus) on the nexus of man, machine and medicine, where discoveries are paving the way for longer, healthier lives. The new look launches today with an insightful Special Report by our reporter Ker Than on the consequences of longer life spans.

Animal World has been renamed Animal Domain because, well, we think animals rule! More important than the new name is our continued effort to bring you the wildest discoveries and the most incredible photography and video about everything from microbes to mammoths.

Expect more changes as LiveScience continues to grow. And let us know what you think, so that we can continue to refine our coverage to make LiveScience an increasingly valuable part of your daily web experience.