What's Next for Nadine?
This article was provided by AccuWeather.com.
As Nadine moves away from the Azores this weekend, the options are open for the system's path into next week.
Nadine, or its remnants, could have a one-way ticket into Europe or could take a round-trip cruise back to the Azores next week.
While Nadine was poorly organized Friday, Sept. 21, and is likely to lose tropical characteristics soon, its rain and circulation may survive for days as it meanders the Eastern and Central Atlantic.
High pressure and dry air to the north were pushing rain squalls away from the Azores this weekend. However, due to the proximity of the system to the islands, rough seas and dangerous surf will continue.
One scenario for next week allows Nadine to loop back to the north, impacting the Azores yet again. A front is currently pushing Nadine southeastward. Depending on how high pressure sets up to the north of the front and Nadine, the clockwise flow around the high could allow Nadine to turn back to the west, then north to near the Azores.
According to Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, head of AccuWeather.com's Hurricane Center, "If Nadine were to survive and move southwest of the Azores for a time, it would move over warmer water and potentially could regenerate."
Another interesting scenario allows Nadine, or its remnants, to drift toward the coast of Europe. In this case, the front interacting with Nadine now would continue to push the system slowly eastward. Additional waves of low pressure along the front could continue to tug on the system, perhaps enough to drag it toward Portugal and Spain later next week.
"Waters are cooler along the west coast of Europe, so Nadine would not likely be able to survive or regenerate as a tropical system, if it were to move closer to Europe," Kottlowski said.
At any rate, the frontal system has the potential to bring at least spotty showers to Portugal and Spain next week. If Nadine's remnant moisture were to get involved, the rainfall could be more substantial and there could be locally gusty showers.
Much of the summer has been very dry in Portugal and portions of southwestern Europe. There has been little or no rain around Lisbon since the middle of August.
If it seems like Nadine has been around forever, its lifespan is not even close to tropical cyclone duration record-holders. The longest-lived tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin was 1899's San Ciriaco Hurricane, which lingered for 28 days. Hurricane/Typhoon John in 1994 was the longest-lived tropical cyclone in the Pacific Basin (East,Central and West) at 30 days.
Nadine was dubbed a tropical storm during the night of Sept. 11, 2012 and would have to survive for several more weeks to challenge duration records.
"While the path of Nadine is uncertain, we are confident this system will lose some or all tropical characteristics soon," Kottlowski stated.
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